weathafella Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 LOL AIT? Liking those 71 dates How about 1994 and 2008? Both on the cusp of significant snows. It's coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How is it not a SSW? It's not a Major Warming, but what criteria does it not meet to be a SSW? i think someone was saying (HM or AM19psu) that you needed a wind reversal at 30mb in order for it to constitute major warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 i think someone was saying (HM or AM19psu) that you needed a wind reversal at 30mb in order for it to constitute major warming. I was saying that lol. But yeah, that's a major warming, which is a specific class of SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just hope that pattern change sticks around for awhile...the changes are certainly favorable...but let's hope it sticks around for longer than a week lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 I just hope that pattern change sticks around for awhile...the changes are certainly favorable...but let's hope it sticks around for longer than a week lol. lol yeah no kidding. Good to see the stratosphere not calming down. Another warming is possible in the next couple weeks and maybe that'll hammer home the polar fields and we just rock and roll through April ...if only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 How is it not a SSW? It's not a Major Warming, but what criteria does it not meet to be a SSW? The refereed literature I have on the subject matter doesn't say anything specific about the 30hPa, although, "Sudden stratospheric warmings involve interactions between the zonal flow of the polar stratosphere and upward propagating planetary waves consisting primarily of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2..." ...could perhaps be construed that way. I think what it "actually" says, however, is that the Wave 1/2 fields together with the temperature need to be present, which as I have been pointing out ... that is the condition presently. I think the bigger term that is being danced around is "propagation" - it's a sudden event, but is it of the propagating variety: "When a vertically propagating wave enters the polar stratosphere, it imparts a westward acceleration there through wave dissipation or wave transience. The deceleration of the eastward zonal flow is offset by the Coriolis force acting on an induced poleward residual circulation that flows across the axis of the eddy forcing. By continuity, the anomalous poleward residual circulation requires sinking (rising) motion below and poleward (equatorward) of the forcing region. The adiabatic temperature changes associated with these induced residual meridional motions act to weaken the meridional temperature gradient, a required by thermal wind balance, and give rise to the warming observed in the polar stratosphere." By that definition, ANY region of abrupt tempature rise should also be construed as decayiing planetary wave activity, and is is related to the same phenomenon. My own research has shown that the emergence of these is typically/actually above the 30hPa level in most cases, then as the downwhelling ensues, the region then passes through the 30hPa toward 50 and below, and happens nearly in tandem with the collapsing westerlies from the top down. Edit: I think it's too early to tell ...although the EP Flux ...eh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 this really isn't that bad compared to what we've seen Yesterday you said no pattern change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 The refereed literature I have on the subject matter doesn't say anything specific about the 30hPa, although, "Sudden stratospheric warmings involve interactions between the zonal flow of the polar stratosphere and upward propagating planetary waves consisting primarily of zonal wavenumbers 1 and 2..." ...could perhaps be construed that way. I think what it "actually" says, however, is that the Wave 1/2 fields together with the temperature need to be present, which as I have been pointing out ... that is the condition presently. I think the bigger term that is being danced around is "propagation" - it's a sudden event, but is it of the propagating variety: "When a vertically propagating wave enters the polar stratosphere, it imparts a westward acceleration there through wave dissipation or wave transience. The deceleration of the eastward zonal flow is offset by the Coriolis force acting on an induced poleward residual circulation that flows across the axis of the eddy forcing. By continuity, the anomalous poleward residual circulation requires sinking (rising) motion below and poleward (equatorward) of the forcing region. The adiabatic temperature changes associated with these induced residual meridional motions act to weaken the meridional temperature gradient, a required by thermal wind balance, and give rise to the warming observed in the polar stratosphere." By that definition, ANY region of abrupt tempature rise should also be construed as decayiing planetary wave activity, and is is related to the same phenomenon. My own research has shown that the emergence of these is typically/actually above the 30hPa level in most cases, then as the downwhelling ensues, the region then passes through the 30hPa toward 50 and below, and happens nearly in tandem with the collapsing westerlies from the top down. Right, the question is propagation. All warmings are initiated above 30hPa. A "Major Warming" is defined using the 30hPa winds because that indicates some degree of downward propagation. A "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" is just that. As you've said here, it's certainly covered all bases in terms of a significant rapid increase in temperature and waves 1/2 amplitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Right, the question is propagation. All warmings are initiated above 30hPa. A "Major Warming" is defined using the 30hPa winds because that indicates some degree of downward propagation. A "Sudden Stratospheric Warming" is just that. As you've said here, it's certainly covered all bases in terms of a significant rapid increase in temperature and waves 1/2 amplitude. yeah, ...reasonable enough. There was at least week anomalies in that regard emerging over ther last week - I think Scott or Osu' may have mentioned that, but again, there isn't enough here (for me anyway) to determine if this is the beginning of something more or not - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 I have come to the conclusion that noone really knows what exactly in the hell a SSW really is and that whenever the damn PV wants to move, it will move. I'm so sick of the SSW fetishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 If you loop the 18z GFS, you'll see what I mean about being close to the gradient and messy storms. I know it's the GFS op, but it gives you an idea of what I meant. I'd still take my chances, but we have to watch for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 Great discussion in this thread...finally some good met stuff that's getting over my head but some optimism also in these posts. Whatever the change is...it's bound to happen sometime here and anything will be better than this. Vicious vicious winter incoming lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 4, 2012 Share Posted January 4, 2012 last thing the major ski resorts needs is a huge rain storm and then bitter cold for MLK weknd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 last thing the major ski resorts needs is a huge rain storm and then bitter cold for MLK weknd. I'm trying not to think about it... lol. A couple inches of snow coming tomorrow as some weak energy works over the mountains... Nickel and dime or penny and nickel winter continues. Pattern change FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Great discussion in this thread...finally some good met stuff that's getting over my head but some optimism also in these posts. Whatever the change is...it's bound to happen sometime here and anything will be better than this. Vicious vicious winter incoming lol Delayed but not denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Joe L on board, when he barks, woof woof baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18Z GFS ENS look Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Who cares about big storms and amplification. Clippers and waves along fronts that give us 2-4 or 3-6 and ice/mix are fine I know this is la nina when CT Blizz is happy with 2-4 inches of snow and we're talking New England in early January We are ALL hard up for snow this winter I hope New England gets 679 feet of high quality pow clear into July 2012 :snowing: :snowing: Every one of you guys deserve it - tons of hard hitting snowstorms with memories to last you several lifetimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 18Z GFS ENS look Sweet Thats a sick pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Much better than what we have had, but it's an NAO-East....better than an NAO-Suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Much better than what we have had, but it's an NAO-East....better than an NAO-Suck. Yea Euro OP was perfect day 9/10 for what it's worth. Better days are coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 It more of a N ATL ridge rather than even an east based -NAO...N ATL ridge can be very good for transporting cold from the north but not necessarily any good for coastal lows...but it supports the cold shot that all the ensembles have for next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 1993-94 is coming for a spell. Hang onto your hats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 I have come to the conclusion that noone really knows what exactly in the hell a SSW really is and that whenever the damn PV wants to move, it will move. I'm so sick of the SSW fetishes. Couldn't have said it any better myself. What ever the weather wants to do it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wake up weather board, I'm dying of boredom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wake up weather board, I'm dying of boredom. Gonna rain again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wow, 0z GFS not all that great. That vortex holds on tight. But prolonged cold into eastern us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Wow, 0z GFS not all that great. That vortex holds on tight. But prolonged cold into eastern us. Looking at the comparison this run is a huge change and ramps the EPO positive.....better hope it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Looking at the comparison this run is a huge change and ramps the EPO positive.....better hope it's wrong. it's the GFS, I'm pretty sure it randomly rolls some dice and that's how it decides what to show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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