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Mid Week Storm Threat 12/28


dryslot

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Upslope signal looking great for the Green mountains in the wake of tomorrow night's rain. Plenty of cold, northwest flow with wrap around and lake effect moisture from Champlain and Ontario. This should be a long duration upslope for Powderfreak, allowing them to make a nice recovery after whatever damage the rain does. In addition, it should be a cold mid to high 30s rain as opposed to a 40s or low 50s type rain in NW VT, hopefully sparing them a full blown snow hemorrhage.

Unlike last night's failed WINDEX/upslope event, I feel better about this one producing some love for the southern Greens and maybe even the Berks/Taconics. These cold, moist NW flows trailing a strong cyclone can produce for areas further south. I also feel confident about the upcoming clipper pattern providing some decent snows to orographically favored areas in WNE.

I had about a 1/4" of an inch last night. BL was above freezing all night, limiting accumulations and upslope machine didn't keep up for long.

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Upslope signal looking great for the Green mountains in the wake of tomorrow night's rain. Plenty of cold, northwest flow with wrap around and lake effect moisture from Champlain and Ontario. This should be a long duration upslope for Powderfreak, allowing them to make a nice recovery after whatever damage the rain does. In addition, it should be a cold mid to high 30s rain as opposed to a 40s or low 50s type rain in NW VT, hopefully sparing them a full blown snow hemorrhage.

Unlike last night's failed WINDEX/upslope event, I feel better about this one producing some love for the southern Greens and maybe even the Berks/Taconics. These cold, moist NW flows trailing a strong cyclone can produce for areas further south. I also feel confident about the upcoming clipper pattern providing some decent snows to orographically favored areas in WNE.

I had about a 1/4" of an inch last night. BL was above freezing all night, limiting accumulations and upslope machine didn't keep up for long.

Bless you, Mitch, bless you.

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Upslope signal looking great for the Green mountains in the wake of tomorrow night's rain. Plenty of cold, northwest flow with wrap around and lake effect moisture from Champlain and Ontario. This should be a long duration upslope for Powderfreak, allowing them to make a nice recovery after whatever damage the rain does. In addition, it should be a cold mid to high 30s rain as opposed to a 40s or low 50s type rain in NW VT, hopefully sparing them a full blown snow hemorrhage.

Unlike last night's failed WINDEX/upslope event, I feel better about this one producing some love for the southern Greens and maybe even the Berks/Taconics. These cold, moist NW flows trailing a strong cyclone can produce for areas further south. I also feel confident about the upcoming clipper pattern providing some decent snows to orographically favored areas in WNE.

I had about a 1/4" of an inch last night. BL was above freezing all night, limiting accumulations and upslope machine didn't keep up for long.

I agree. And you have DGZs dropping right to summit level, should get some very nice ratios out of a deep snow growth zone.

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Obviously with any convective elements there will be bursts of some stronger gusts.

Speaking of which there could be some sort of fine line of t'storms that develops just along the leading edge of the dry slot where this drier air could enhance mid-level convective instability and with WAA in the lower levels and some CAA in the mid-levels along with a decent amount of 700mb VV this could set the stage for some sort of line...we'll see.

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Interesting...I looked at the NAM sounding for here at 21Z and all levels are below 0C from 950 mb upward... I wonder if it could start as a brief period of wet snow or sleet. I'll take anything interesting at this point.

22F now ...

Obviously with any convective elements there will be bursts of some stronger gusts.

Speaking of which there could be some sort of fine line of t'storms that develops just along the leading edge of the dry slot where this drier air could enhance mid-level convective instability and with WAA in the lower levels and some CAA in the mid-levels along with a decent amount of 700mb VV this could set the stage for some sort of line...we'll see.

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Interesting...I looked at the NAM sounding for here at 21Z and all levels are below 0C from 950 mb upward... I wonder if it could start as a brief period of wet snow or sleet. I'll take anything interesting at this point.

22F now ...

I actually only looked at some soundings here across SNE...didn't really look at any areas which could be close to snow or anything. I suppose something like that could be possible up your way.

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New NAM has a nice line of LIs 0 to -1 cutting through SNE between 3z and 06s tonight. Looks like it could be a fine line type deal. 80kt winds to 925mb or so and not a terribly strong inversion could be interesting.

Classic embedded ribbon echo squall sinuously slinking across the area with nice wind pulse and sheeting rains. ...maybe.

While not a fold, there does appear a nice pressure fall/rise backside couplet for an hour or two.

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Only 34.2, dew point < 25. here so if this had taken a decent track I think we could have pulled off a snow event this time. But not much luck this season. It has broken out as wet snow in the high terrain north of BGM, but that won't last.

38.9F/32 here

I even thought I saw a flake or 2 earlier this afternoon... probably debris being blown aroud by the stiff wind

As long as it gets itself out of here quickly.

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