Jump to content

  • Member Statistics

    17,516
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Dump Trump
    Newest Member
    Dump Trump
    Joined

Mid Week Storm Threat 12/28

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 745
  • Created
  • Last Reply
snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

New GFS does not look good for all of NE. Just a crushing rainstorm for the Coastal plain, valleys, hills, and mountains. Ski Resorts will take a huge hit with this one. This thing continues to trend NW too. No stopping it now.

Enjoy the Rain folks!

1/1/12 looks great on the GFS though, I think that is our next shot as sig. snowfall right there...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

It's still slamming the Adirondacks and Montreal. Good for the economy in KSLK ..the only ski area in the Northeast (US) with powder snow this week.

Ends as an inch or two of snow here after the deluge.... as per 18z GFS.

New GFS does not look good for all of NE. Just a crushing rainstorm for the Coastal plain, valleys, hills, and mountains. Ski Resorts will take a huge hit with this one. This thing continues to trend NW too. No stopping it now.

Enjoy the Rain folks!

1/1/12 looks great on the GFS though, I think that is our next shot as sig. snowfall right there...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

no one really bought into those phantom colder solutions did they? like someone else recently posted...onto Friday's clipper lol...

at this point i think it would be more fun to just torch til new year's and just see how abnoxiously above normal all the climo sites can come in for the month of Dec..and there looks to be no bottom of the ninth inning snow or cold event to really put a dent in this past month's epic torch.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
NECT

NECT

Posted
Posted

no one really bought into those phantom colder solutions did they? like someone else recently posted...onto Friday's clipper lol...

at this point i think it would be more fun to just torch til new year's and just see how abnoxiously above normal all the climo sites can come in for the month of Dec..and there looks to be no bottom of the ninth inning snow or cold event to really put a dent in this past month's epic torch.

Looks like we're just waiting for something to change, and it's not happening really soon. To borrow a phrase, enjoy the torch, it's the only torch you've got.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

still a bit weak for my liking my probably the best solution for WNY so far. It's still kind of a "sloppy" phase.

It bombs out a bit late for BUf, but it def gives something there. I remember when back at school in Ithaca, we studied BUF snyoptic snowstorms and their best climo was almost right along the spine of the apps (on the mean)...basically from like HGR to PLB...which of course is a climatological minimum for cyclones that explains why BUF doesn't get big synoptic storms of >10".

But this might be one of those types of tracks if it works out...so there is def potential there. I'd like to see it bombs out sooner to try and get some decent winds in here. Its going to be a mild rainer regardless, so might as well try and get a wind event out of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

It bombs out a bit late for BUf, but it def gives something there. I remember when back at school in Ithaca, we studied BUF snyoptic snowstorms and their best climo was almost right along the spine of the apps (on the mean)...basically from like HGR to PLB...which of course is a climatological minimum for cyclones that explains why BUF doesn't get big synoptic storms of >10".

But this might be one of those types of tracks if it works out...so there is def potential there. I'd like to see it bombs out sooner to try and get some decent winds in here. Its going to be a mild rainer regardless, so might as well try and get a wind event out of it.

I specifically know of 4 synoptic snowstorms that gave BUF more than a foot...but I'm guessing there are more. I wonder if some of it is a little weenish...oh the best storms are always to the east etc. I definitely think eastern NY to New England is way more favored for heavy synoptic snow...but is BUF really worse off than Detroit or Ohio or Northern Indiana? I'm not so sure.

St. Patrick's Day 1936 19"

Superstorm of 1993 17"

Dec. 2007 13"

Mar. 2008 20"

There are many Miller Bs that gave BUF 6-12" in the past 15 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I specifically know of 4 synoptic snowstorms that gave BUF more than a foot...but I'm guessing there are more. I wonder if some of it is a little weenish...oh the best storms are always to the east etc. I definitely think eastern NY to New England is way more favored for heavy synoptic snow...but is BUF really worse off than Detroit or Ohio or Northern Indiana? I'm not so sure.

St. Patrick's Day 1936 19"

Superstorm of 1993 17"

Dec. 2007 13"

Mar. 2008 20"

There are many Miller Bs that gave BUF 6-12" in the past 15 years.

Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats.

BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there.

From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
#NoPoles

#NoPoles

Posted
Posted

totally being a weenie...but i have a mini ski trip planned to Pat's Peak 28-29...and this is not looking good at all...seems like that ski resorts are melting snow faster than they can make it...another 1-2in rain storm with temps in the 40's and 50's is not good...

bad ski-juju this year

Link to comment
Share on other sites
OSUmetstud

OSUmetstud

Posted
Posted

Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats.

BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there.

From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south.

yeah it's pretty crazy for sure...I mean every synoptic snow I've ever experienced in BUF other than arctic clipper/windex event has not exceeded 1 1/2" an hour. We'll have a winter storm warning for 6-12" and we'll get 9" from 12 hours of 1/2" to 1" an hour snows. The public will kinda be like...geeze..that's all? That wasn't too bad...because we're used to 3 to 4"/hr. rates from lake-effect. Even that March 2008 event was pretty much a very long duration 1"/hr. type snow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
wokeupthisam

wokeupthisam

Posted
Posted

totally being a weenie...but i have a mini ski trip planned to Pat's Peak 28-29...and this is not looking good at all...seems like that ski resorts are melting snow faster than they can make it...another 1-2in rain storm with temps in the 40's and 50's is not good...

bad ski-juju this year

Yeah, not looking good right now. Hopefully it will trend back cooler and save a little skiing. If not, there's always the Intervale Pancake House near the base - best pancakes I've had, anywhere.

: )

Link to comment
Share on other sites
skierinvermont

skierinvermont

Posted
Posted

00z GFS is just a smidge faster at bringing in the cold air before the storm and bringing in the HP. One more smidge like that and we could be back in the snow for extreme NNE and forcing the storm to track through central MA to S NH to just NW of Augusta. Actually starts me as 1-2" of snow.

GGEM tracks it just SE of me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
AppsRunner

AppsRunner

Posted
Posted

Ohio and Indiana are wastelands for synoptic events over a foot. So BUF is probably not worse off than them...DET I'm not sure. We'd have to get michsnowfreak in this discussion as he knows the stats like the back of his hand. I'm not sure how the stats would add up...BUF shouldn't really be much worse off than DET...I think the Apps hurt BUF a bit from a synoptic standpoint because of what they do to synoptic systems. But it would be interesting to see the true stats.

BUF obviously makes their snow mostly with lake effect, though they probably have a ton of synoptic 1-3" snows as I know well from my days in Ithaca. Clippers do well there.

From what I've studied over the past 10 years, New England is definitely the synoptic snow capital of the east which isn't hard to believe when you think about it since they already have latitude and one of the biggest features is they stick out to the east into the Atlantic so the moisture source is really good and it gives a great natural baroclinic zone to their south.

Toledo only has 5 official storms over 12" going back to 1900 (22.5"- 1900, 14"- 1974, and 12" in Jan. '05, 1910, and '78). I believe that Detroit does a little better, but I Josh (michsnowfreak) would know better.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted

This threat is about dead...but Euro has some interesting possibilities for New Years Eve.

I was reading about this in the nyc thread....apparently an odd setup with cutoff lows or something?

What got my attention this am is the north america temp map. no cold air until you get to the latitude of hudsons bay...geez does this suck. I still think it will flip hard n fast...the rubberband is getting taut.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing.

I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...