powderfreak Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Definitely across the plains/Lakes. I haven't been paying real close attention to the EC, but under this scenario I am not 100% sure the seasonal trend has been farther NW (i.e., phasing and deeper lows). Torchiness has definitely been the pattern trend, but I think we are discussing to different things when discussing "farther NW/suppressed". But l I truly haven't been paying much attention up there. The weather boredom CONUS wide has just been too extreme this year for me to pay close attention to any one location. Makes sense, I wasn't sure about the geographic area you were referring too. I don't think any met will argue here in the Northeast that we've had a NW seasonal trend from where models indicate at 2-3 day lead time. But again I'm just going by where the low ends up at verification time and where models have it a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 6z gfs and nam look pretty similar to their 00z runs...nam looks colder if anything. They look pretty similar...both look like some snow from Pete to SW NH....even though they are way colder then the ec, they still wouldn't provide much snow seeing as most of the precip is on the warm side of the storm. Doesn't really look good for snow anywhere but it will be interesting to see which "camp" gives in to the other. I'm out of it for snow unless a miracle happens, but if I was anywhere NW of Pete and Southern NH I would watch this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Partially because this is a triple phase: Polar Vortex phasing with the deamplifying Pacific low amplitude shortwave phasing with the southern stream anomaly. The southern anomaly itself is interacting with a weak upper depression near Baja, MX. It is an incredibly challenging upper air pattern for the numerical guidance to handle. It really is a microcasm if this entire late fall/winter where every potential storm threat is a "thread the needle" event. What is rather remarkable is the bullish consistency of both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles each supporting drastically different scenarios. CMC has been waffling in between suppression and a nicely timed phase across the Great Lakes region. Plain pattern persistence and the model bias lately with the +AO regime would suggest a faster northern stream solution with a more suppressed solution, but with so many moving parts in the flow there is no guarantee that the stars do not align with a "thread the needle" event. It is a high frequency noise problem the models will not handle well. The NAM solutions the last two days (LOLtastic) have been a good example. Should the ECMWF solution pan out, it would once again be a nod to its overall superiority to other modeling systems, but we will see. At least across the Great Lakes/OV, I am siding much more towards seasonal persistence(GFS/GEFS) and suppression. Light snow likely into southern MI, but definitely not a bombastic phase like some guidance suggested earlier. At this point I want the full on triple phase right up the AO's fanny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 wet for just about everyone..is there really any question? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 wet for just about everyone..is there really any question? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 nyc thread seems to be optimistic about a major pattern change in january, they seem much more enthusiastic than this board these days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 That's a product of the upper level pattern. Don't be confused as the surface high is not the reason a storm would slide south. The high is a product of the upper level pattern. Similar situation the other day a stronger high did nothing to help most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 6znam looks incredible, the se trend has been more than impressive......lots of snow on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 how do we go from al all out torching rainstorm to the canadian border to a big snow storm save the cosstal plain in less than twelve hrs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 6znam looks incredible, the se trend has been more than impressive......lots of snow on the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I have nailed the torch, nailed the individual storms, if you choose not to follow my lead it will be a mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I have nailed the torch, nailed the individual storms, if you choose not to follow my lead it will be a mistake post if I ever saw one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 post if I ever saw one. Must be the eggnog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The two of you have become so grumpy, sarcasm just wooshes over you're heads......I hope it snows soon:( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I have nailed the torch, nailed the individual storms, if you choose not to follow my lead it will be a mistake Holiday cheer...ftw -SN here got down to 3.2F Back on topic... Somebody is getting snow weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Holiday cheer...ftw -SN here got down to 3.2F Back on topic... Somebody is getting snow weds I agree and congrats, I have said from the beginning this would come southeast as the ns is beefier and coincides with better timing from the ss energy. I think everyone in the elevated interior is good for at least some snow and western new england might be in the sweet spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 I agree and congrats, I have said from the beginning this would come southeast as the ns is beefier and coincides with better timing from the ss energy. I think everyone in the elevated interior is good for at least some snow and western new england might be in the sweet spot Thanks, We will see how this plays out, Right now its quite the model war going on, Merry Christmas by the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 12z nam is another hit, Storm tarcks over SE mass into the GOM up the bay of fundy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 nyc thread seems to be optimistic about a major pattern change in january, they seem much more enthusiastic than this board these days OT but this is what Isotherm said. Thought I'd throw in a bit of good news to kick off Christmas Eve/Christmas. There are other forecasters thinking similarly wrt this early Jan reversal. Joe D'Aleo mentioned an interesting comparison to the 03/04 warming event. December was very cold in the stratosphere through the 20th, then we saw the warming initiate over Siberia/Asia as we're seeing now; by the beginning of January, the warmth had propagated from 10mb down through 500mb and had also spread across the globe into Greenland/Canada. Once that occurred, the AO responded very quickly, turning negative after January 5th, and we all know how January 2004 worked out temp wise.If current proggs are correct re the timing/progression of this warming, we'll be displacing the vortex and warming Greenland/Canada by 240hrs (D 10) which should mean the AO turns negative in that Jan 5th-10th time frame. We'll see how it plays out but just thought it was an interesting tidbit to post. Latest ECMWF stratospheric forecasts indicate pretty massive height rises edging into greenland at almost all levels by D 10. Although current GFS/Euro ensembles don't have the AO going negative, I would think as this warming event gets going, we'll begin to see the modelling trend that direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 12z nam is another hit, Storm tarcks over SE mass into the GOM up the bay of fundy Beautiful stuff on the 12z NAM... not much snow up here but that's ok. I really just want this as far SE and away from us as possible. It cannot rain up here during the holiday week and I do not want to be in the marketing position of trying to "spin" a rain storm to make it sound somewhat appealing to the masses. I just don't want to have to deal with that... not this week, lol. And we don't need the wind and associated wind holds on chairlifts from a 970mb bomb over NH or something like that. Dryslot, I'm really really hoping you cash in on this, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 how do we go from al all out torching rainstorm to the canadian border to a big snow storm save the cosstal plain in less than twelve hrs?? Hold a mirror to last week??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Trends are fantastic, some of us will see a pretty decent snowstorm mid week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Beautiful stuff on the 12z NAM... not much snow up here but that's ok. I really just want this as far SE and away from us as possible. It cannot rain up here during the holiday week and I do not want to be in the marketing position of trying to "spin" a rain storm to make it sound somewhat appealing to the masses. I just don't want to have to deal with that... not this week, lol. And we don't need the wind and associated wind holds on chairlifts from a 970mb bomb over NH or something like that. Dryslot, I'm really really hoping you cash in on this, haha. Merry Christmas, There are some models that are really going to get taken to task here, The Euro is so amped and west then everthing else it still can't be discounted, Going have to wait and see who caves to who but i still could be wet here if we split the difference between the amaericans and europeans, Point and click has 70% snow/sleet tues night and 70% snow weds, At least we have something to track.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Hold a mirror to last week??? We had a thread titled christmas miracle, We will dub this that......lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 12z nam is another hit, Storm tarcks over SE mass into the GOM up the bay of fundy Yeah--the NAM would shake hands with the S-C VT, NH and western ME. Perhaps even giving GC a high fiive for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Rain from border to border. Euro wins again. The NW trends always always wins in the end. Hopefully it doesn't decimate ski country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Yeah--the NAM would shake hands with the S-C VT, NH and western ME. Perhaps even giving GC a high fiive for a while. You look to flip to snow as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Rain from border to border. Euro wins again. The NW trends always always wins in the end. Hopefully it doesn't decimate ski country Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Merry Christmas, There are some models that are really going to get taken to task here, The Euro is so amped and west then everthing else it still can't be discounted, Going have to wait and see who caves to who but i still could be wet here if we split the difference between the amaericans and europeans, Point and click has 70% snow/sleet tues night and 70% snow weds, At least we have something to track.. Even down here, mine has 90% sn/rn Tues night, 40% snow Wednesday. But, this far out, I few the forecasts as merely 'covering the bases'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Yeah if we see the US models trending toward the Euro....you know it could be curtains. So my unscientific opinion is keep em suppressed for now.... Makes me feel better. Merry Christmas everyone....light dusting here added a bit of mood. Beautiful stuff on the 12z NAM... not much snow up here but that's ok. I really just want this as far SE and away from us as possible. It cannot rain up here during the holiday week and I do not want to be in the marketing position of trying to "spin" a rain storm to make it sound somewhat appealing to the masses. I just don't want to have to deal with that... not this week, lol. And we don't need the wind and associated wind holds on chairlifts from a 970mb bomb over NH or something like that. Dryslot, I'm really really hoping you cash in on this, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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