CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro west outlier...lol I can only see uk through 72 hours on my phone but it looks like a toaster bath to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 where is IV4? 1V4 is St J, VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 This may cut through the Hudson Valley. Dendrite, being that no one else is on, and I am trying to figure out exactly what is going on, can you give me an idea on evolution of the storm prior to hour 78.... Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 where is IV4? St j Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The Euro would be quite the wind event across parts of the region as well...has 60-70 knots at 850mb...could see some winds mix down with heavier precip/any convection. EDIT Shouldn't say quite the wind event but there would be some really strong gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Classic model battle.... American vs European. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 At least BDL can add onto it's record for wettest year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Good, send it through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Dendrite, being that no one else is on, and I am trying to figure out exactly what is going on, can you give me an idea on evolution of the storm prior to hour 78.... Thanks! I assume you want a PIT focus...lol. Looks like a classic nrn/srn stream phase over the OH Valley. We get rapid cyclogenesis 66-72hr...996mb over DCA at 72hr. Probably snow in the mtns of W WV and far western PA. You guys should be able to see the 72hr 850 temps soon if not now. PIT starts a little iffy until the low gets cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 not a terrible run for me...but i think it actually needs to phase and close off slightly earlier at 850mb to get BUF into the good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 72hr Euro looks very similar to the 00z Ukie. Here's the Ukie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 I assume you want a PIT focus...lol. Looks like a classic nrn/srn stream phase over the OH Valley. We get rapid cyclogenesis 66-72hr...996mb over DCA at 72hr. Probably snow in the mtns of W WV and far western PA. You guys should be able to see the 72hr 850 temps soon if not now. PIT starts a little iffy until the low gets cranking. Well, I was hoping to help out my friends in general in the western and central PA threads, but I do appreciate you being specific! Much appreciated, and Merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 The Euro is out on ewall now...idk about WU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It's a perfect phase and any perfect phase is doom for us this winter. You would be pretty wary about going against the Euro at 72 hours, but with all the moving parts it may not attain such perfection. I'd probably give up if I lived east of the Berkshires or south of NH..... The Euro is out on ewall now...idk about WU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Euro ensembles run through interior NE to a position in SW ME by 84h. Its amazing how much more amped the Euro/ukie are than the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREFs are so suppressed they give no precip to even SNE...how laughable the differences are between them and the Euro. 06z NAM looks like a compromise with a rainstorm for most of SNE...very little precip in air that is cold enough for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREFs are so suppressed they give no precip to even SNE...how laughable the differences are between them and the Euro. 06z NAM looks like a compromise with a rainstorm for most of SNE...very little precip in air that is cold enough for snow. It looks like there are a quite a bit of s/w's embedded here...do you think this could be a reason why the models are having such a difficult time handling the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It's the typical winter of 11-12 catch-22.... You phase it and it runs inland, you leave it unphased or late phase and it ends up being mainly rain like last Thursday night. Maybe some lucky people can thread the needle a bit and get snow. It looks like there are a quite a bit of s/w's embedded here...do you think this could be a reason why the models are having such a difficult time handling the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 SREFs are so suppressed they give no precip to even SNE...how laughable the differences are between them and the Euro. 06z NAM looks like a compromise with a rainstorm for most of SNE...very little precip in air that is cold enough for snow. LOL yeah... I was thinking the next trick this winter may have in the bag is the further south track but absolutely no snow on the NW side, just a big blob of 4-6 hour heavy rain in the warm sector with some flurries where it is cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Dry slot issues across a good part of SNE while much of NNE gets pounded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Model wars! Still think this could be rain for a good chunk of NE, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It looks like there are a quite a bit of s/w's embedded here...do you think this could be a reason why the models are having such a difficult time handling the storm? Partially because this is a triple phase: Polar Vortex phasing with the deamplifying Pacific low amplitude shortwave phasing with the southern stream anomaly. The southern anomaly itself is interacting with a weak upper depression near Baja, MX. It is an incredibly challenging upper air pattern for the numerical guidance to handle. It really is a microcasm if this entire late fall/winter where every potential storm threat is a "thread the needle" event. What is rather remarkable is the bullish consistency of both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles each supporting drastically different scenarios. CMC has been waffling in between suppression and a nicely timed phase across the Great Lakes region. Plain pattern persistence and the model bias lately with the +AO regime would suggest a faster northern stream solution with a more suppressed solution, but with so many moving parts in the flow there is no guarantee that the stars do not align with a "thread the needle" event. It is a high frequency noise problem the models will not handle well. The NAM solutions the last two days (LOLtastic) have been a good example. Should the ECMWF solution pan out, it would once again be a nod to its overall superiority to other modeling systems, but we will see. At least across the Great Lakes/OV, I am siding much more towards seasonal persistence(GFS/GEFS) and suppression. Light snow likely into southern MI, but definitely not a bombastic phase like some guidance suggested earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Awesome response! Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Partially because this is a triple phase: Polar Vortex phasing with the deamplifying Pacific low amplitude shortwave phasing with the southern stream anomaly. The southern anomaly itself is interacting with a weak upper depression near Baja, MX. It is an incredibly challenging upper air pattern for the numerical guidance to handle. It really is a microcasm if this entire late fall/winter where every potential storm threat is a "thread the needle" event. What is rather remarkable is the bullish consistency of both the GFS/GEFS and the ECMWF/ECMWF ensembles each supporting drastically different scenarios. CMC has been waffling in between suppression and a nicely timed phase across the Great Lakes region. Plain pattern persistence and the model bias lately with the +AO regime would suggest a faster northern stream solution with a more suppressed solution, but with so many moving parts in the flow there is no guarantee that the stars do not align with a "thread the needle" event. It is a high frequency noise problem the models will not handle well. The NAM solutions the last two days (LOLtastic) have been a good example. Should the ECMWF solution pan out, it would once again be a nod to its overall superiority to other modeling systems, but we will see. At least across the Great Lakes/OV, I am siding much more towards seasonal persistence(GFS/GEFS) and suppression. Light snow likely into southern MI, but definitely not a bombastic phase like some guidance suggested earlier. Great post, but hasn't the seasonal tendency been for these to end up further NW than modeled? I'm not sure I agree with suppression as what has been happening this season. Every one of these fast moving systems we've been modeled to be on the NW fringe even 36 hours out, only to be in the thick of it come verification time. Or are you speaking more in terms of you've been seeing suppression in the Midwest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Well I'll just take the most weenie solution which is a blend of the UK/ECM and GFS/NAM... blend 'em together and you get the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Great post, but hasn't the seasonal tendency been for these to end up further NW than modeled? I'm not sure I agree with suppression as what has been happening this season. Every one of these fast moving systems we've been modeled to be on the NW fringe even 36 hours out, only to be in the thick of it come verification time. Or are you speaking more in terms of you've been seeing suppression in the Midwest? Definitely across the plains/Lakes. I haven't been paying real close attention to the EC, but under this scenario I am not 100% sure the seasonal trend has been farther NW (i.e., phasing and deeper lows). Torchiness has definitely been the pattern trend, but I think we are discussing to different things when discussing "farther NW/suppressed". But l I truly haven't been paying much attention up there. The weather boredom CONUS wide has just been too extreme this year for me to pay close attention to any one location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Definitely across the plains/Lakes. I haven't been paying real close attention to the EC, but under this scenario I am not 100% sure the seasonal trend has been farther NW (i.e., phasing and deeper lows). Torchiness has definitely been the pattern trend, but I think we are discussing to different things when discussing "farther NW/suppressed". But l I truly haven't been paying much attention up there. The weather boredom CONUS wide has just been too extreme this year for me to pay close attention to any one location. Wouldn't that ~1028mb high sliding through SE Canada try and keep the storm more suppressed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Wouldn't that ~1028mb high sliding through SE Canada try and keep the storm more suppressed? That's a product of the upper level pattern. Don't be confused as the surface high is not the reason a storm would slide south. The high is a product of the upper level pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 That's a product of the upper level pattern. Don't be confused as the surface high is not the reason a storm would slide south. The high is a product of the upper level pattern. Ah...I gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Ah...I gotcha. Those features move around and at the mercy of the upper level pattern. Convergence and divergence aloft are the reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.