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Mid Week Storm Threat 12/28

dryslot

By dryslot,
in New England

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

Posted
Posted

The winds might be the most interesting part of this storm.

And what the heck is isallobaric?

CONSEQUENTIALLY

STRONG ONSHORE LOW-MID LVL FLOW /AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT

OF THE WIND/ RESULTS IN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A VERY RICH AND

MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH VALUES OF 320K AT H85-H7 BETWEEN 3-6Z

ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
  • Author
Posted

The winds might be the most interesting part of this storm.

And what the heck is isallobaric?

CONSEQUENTIALLY

STRONG ONSHORE LOW-MID LVL FLOW /AIDED BY AN ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT

OF THE WIND/ RESULTS IN LOW-MID LVL CONVERGENCE OF A VERY RICH AND

MOIST WARM CONVEYOR BELT WITH VALUES OF 320K AT H85-H7 BETWEEN 3-6Z

ACROSS S NEW ENGLAND

14010_36_2.jpg

14010_36_3.jpg

14010_36_4.jpg

Isallobaric Indications Lows tend to move toward the center of the largest 3-hour pressure falls. This is normally the point where the maximum warm air advection is occurring.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing.

I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage.

Low 50s in Galveston right now. Same storm. Heading out later today to Mexico where it should be warmer but still a bit unsettled the first 3-4 days.

The NAM is a pretty vicious rain. I guess we need to realize until the pattern changes models will start colder and end warm. Not a good pattern as all as the PROS keep saying.

Litch what's the latest MRG has opened?

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

There is only one option left for Pete since he has his AK friend here.... Tremblant. 12Z runs hit them hard..powder FTW. Even Whiteface is a mixed bag, but they may manage some backside stuff.

This is incredible, new nam even further west, this is a total disaster for the entire New England ski industry, right smack dab in the middle of xmas week. This may ensure that MRG will not open until 1/10, simply amazing.

I am stoked for some hydro issues as well as potential wind damage.

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NorEastermass128

NorEastermass128

Posted
Posted

Low 50s in Galveston right now. Same storm. Heading out later today to Mexico where it should be warmer but still a bit unsettled the first 3-4 days.

The NAM is a pretty vicious rain. I guess we need to realize until the pattern changes models will start colder and end warm. Not a good pattern as all as the PROS keep saying.

Litch what's the latest MRG has opened?

Would they ever just scrap the season? I'm talking if we are still in the same position come 2/1. Maybe 2/15.

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ski MRG

ski MRG

Posted
Posted

Would they ever just scrap the season? I'm talking if we are still in the same position come 2/1. Maybe 2/15.

LOL, no. You think I'm a freak, you should meet my friends in the office there. They will never say die. Why would you guys ask Joe about MRG, I don't think he even skis.lol

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Again ... no one should be surprised or disappointed/negative by or about this system this week. No moods should be touched. If so, you have your self to blame for (yet again) allowing an obsession with snow drive your psyche.

There was very little probability - and still is quite low - for a colder profile for this system. Frankly, it was never much of a "Miller B" for that matter but that's beside the point.

As Will and I discussed days ago ... the teleconnectors didn't support the GFS notions back then. The Euro came out smartly with a warm run with enough lead time to fit into the spread more appropriately. Folks' expectations should have been turned toward enjoying xmass, NFL, NHL, politics ....whatever it is that you do when you are not involved here, but crooning over how awful the GFS run is ..it's all a striking waste of time.

There is a so-so signal for Jan 1-5th. If I were you and had control over my passions, I would focus on that period of time. ...and yes, there might be something New Year's eve, but the better signal is around the former timing.

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Logan11

Logan11

Posted
Posted

Yeah I should have given up on this about 36 hours ago, but being further west there seemed to be some possibility. Anyway..I didn't let it dominate my Christmas activities.

Again ... no one should be surprised or disappointed/negative by or about this system this week. No moods should be touched. If so, you have your self to blame for (yet again) allowing an obsession with snow drive your psyche.

There was very little probability - and still is quite low - for a colder profile for this system. Frankly, it was never much of a "Miller B" for that matter but that's beside the point.

As Will and I discussed days ago ... the teleconnectors didn't support the GFS notions back then. The Euro came out smartly with a warm run with enough lead time to fit into the spread more appropriately. Folks' expectations should have been turned toward enjoying xmass, NFL, NHL, politics ....whatever it is that you do when you are not involved here, but crooning over how awful the GFS run is ..it's all a striking waste of time.

There is a so-so signal for Jan 1-5th. If I were you and had control over my passions, I would focus on that period of time. ...and yes, there might be something New Year's eve, but the better signal is around the former timing.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
Posted

I'd like to see the guys in BUF and adjacent Ontario do well. They haven't have a good synoptic snowstorm in awhile. It's done for us now so I'll enjoy watching the west side of our Upstate region do well.

Thanks for the well wishes. Last storm of over 8" here was back on March 7-8, 2008. Three whole winters and counting without an 8"er or more. And I don't get the benefit of LES which compounds the problem.

I really found that earlier discussion between Will and Nick instructive. We really are a synoptic wasteland over here just west of the Apps.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Euro is a nice hit from OGS/MSS toward Joliette and around YQB.

not sure if u r interested, but this was my post in the upstate forum

that easterly difference between the euro and the GFS is the difference between the jackpot being near CYOW or near CYUL......ECM keep MTL mostly snow maybe some mix at the height, but the heaviest frozen qpf tomorrow passes along the downtown itself as well as N of the city, but less S of the champlain bridge with more mix concerns on the south burbs. its razor close.

i would think you can nudge that a bit NW as per usual with a deepening storm, so as is stands right now i would say heaviest axis of snow to fall east of ottawa but N of montreal, from KMSS/cornwall to hawkesbury, ontario to st. jerome/tremblant QC axis.....based on the 12z runs, i think 8-16 inches /20-40cm of snow is possible in this region if everything breaks right.

we'll have to watch for a nudging of that axis in future model runs.

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