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First Winter Storm Threat for New England 2011/12 - II


Baroclinic Zone

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Euro is still north and fairly warm like last night's 00z run. Not very good for south of the MA border with VT/NH. It still does have a nice little burst of snow at the end, but its not as long duration as the other guidance thus far at 12z.

Yeah nothing special. Flurries for Mt. Tolland... while Mt Socks gets a slushy 1-3

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I tell you what ... as a side note to all this, I am less concerned on October 25th whether snow is confirmed or not; the fact that we can ligitimately discuss a potential at this time of year may just be a good sign.

We just did this in '09 in October... That said, it seems since 2000 there have been a few Octobers and Mays that had snow scenarios - regradless of intensity. More so than I recall prior to 2000. Obviously thinking back there are glory bombs in May, ...circa 1977 et al. But by and large, the majority of our transition seasons don't carry with them these very late and very early snows prior to 2000, but has happened enough since that it is no longer shocking ... Seems there is about a 3 year periodicity there.

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Yeah nothing special. Flurries for Mt. Tolland... while Mt Socks gets a slushy 1-3

It hardly gets any of that southern vorticity infused into it, so it stays pretty far north...the vortmax tracks N of the PA/NY border...no good for anything big. The other 12z guidance had the vortmax along or south of the NY/PA border.

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Euro might be tough south of the Pike near the CT border for more than flakes.

The Euro type scenario is exactly why I wouldn't forecast more than 1-3" right now for northern hills/GC...and more than an inch here. Obviously it could come in a shade colder before we get to this event,. but there's a lot of ways that we won't see that much from this system...the Euro solution is one of them.

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The Euro type scenario is exactly why I wouldn't forecast more than 1-3" right now for northern hills/GC...and more than an inch here. Obviously it could come in a shade colder before we get to this event,. but there's a lot of ways that we won't see that much from this system...the Euro solution is one of them.

I need a few min for the euro maps, but yeah there is a big DS coming in from the WSW right when the cold air comes in.

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That blows...hopefully storm 2 pans out

The 00z Euro wasn't great either.

The problem has been for most areas outside of areas that can reasonably expect snow in late October (near 1500 or 2kft in the Berks or srn Greens) is that we're relying on an overrunning event and an open wave with enough lingering frontogenesis and a burst of QG forcing to do the trick.

If the low was closing off underneath us and we were talking about a burst of northerly ageostrophic 25 knots in the boundary layer I'd be a lot more excited.

Instead as usual we have the NAM developing too much vertical motion and cooling things too fast.

So, yeah, Socks and adjacent northern ORH county could get a couple inches of slop but in the grand scheme of things it's not such a rare event. 2 or 3" in Mt Tolland and into the valleys around CT and Mass would be something much more unusual and exciting.

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