ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro ensembles have the 2nd storm but not surprisingly its SE of the OP...maybe 100 mi SE of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EC ensembles look just a little east of the 00z version fwiw, but stronger. They also have a strong hangback trough which may mean a few weenie members in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro ensembles have the 2nd storm but not surprisingly its SE of the OP...maybe 100 mi SE of the BM. does the product you use happen to come along with an error spread ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro ensembles have the 2nd storm but not surprisingly its SE of the OP...maybe 100 mi SE of the BM. Yeah pretty far east of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Good news on both storms on the Euro ens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Yeah pretty far east of the op. It looks like eastern NE would still get some..but clearly not the wound up bomb like the OP...lol. Its a pretty strong storm though even on the ensembles, so thats good at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 EC ensembles look just a little east of the 00z version fwiw, but stronger. They also have a strong hangback trough which may mean a few weenie members in there. You know a weak norlun scenario did cross my mind as a mid-way beteen the 1st and 2nd system... Not sure though; could just be enough backside NVA from the first system to break down the east wind/trough, but could also not, in which case we have lingering clouds and grains/drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Good news on both storms on the Euro ens The ensembles were not good for storm #1...they were almost identical to the OP...pretty warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The ensembles were not good for storm #1...they were almost identical to the OP...pretty warm. rob safe to toss the euro temp profile at this juncture seeing as everything else is colder and euro tends to verify too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 what does the old ETA model show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It looks like eastern NE would still get some..but clearly not the wound up bomb like the OP...lol. Its a pretty strong storm though even on the ensembles, so thats good at least. Just looking at the spread at 850mb, it does have some warm members in there too. But, the whole thing shifted east a bit from 00z. Still not bad I guess for this far out. Perhaps a risk of being more east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Almost every NMM/ARW member is a complete whiff or graze for the CON area. Based on the globals I'd have to think the mean will be bumping slightly north with time unless they're seeing something the globals aren't. Last night when I went to bed at 2:30AM Will was saying at the time I was in a prime location. Now this lol. Roller coaster ride for me. I'm hoping they bump a little more than slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Pretty crazy to see the MET MOS spitting out a snow cat of 4 here for Thu night. I'm not sure I've ever seen that in October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 what does the old ETA model show A big weenie solution...even Kevin would get a few inches on this one http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_18z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 what does the old ETA model show A crushing for MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't understand why some are acting like the chances of me getting 1-2 or inches aren't very good. It's the euro warmth against the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't understand why some are acting like the chances of me getting 1-2 or inches aren't very good. It's the euro warmth against the world If the Euro was the only one giving you snow you'd be tossing out the rest of the models and calling them garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't understand why some are acting like the chances of me getting 1-2 or inches aren't very good. It's the euro warmth against the world You'd be tying the noose too on the GFS even though its a bit colder. You could pick up an inch or two, but at this point, I'm not even sure I will up here. I'd much rather be about 20 miles north near the NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The JMA has about a 4 or 5 NESDIS blizzard for the mid weekend deal.... wow Now you know you can toss it as there have only been a handful of December NESIS storms, let alone October or November. There have been more in April than October and November combined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 rob safe to toss the euro temp profile at this juncture seeing as everything else is colder and euro tends to verify too warm It does? Your odds of 1" IMO are 10 percent or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs got real bullish with the snow probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 SREFs got real bullish with the snow probs. Indeed, much better than 09z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I don't understand why some are acting like the chances of me getting 1-2 or inches aren't very good. It's the euro warmth against the world It's a latitude issue. You are mild for the heaviest moisture, but then all the precip leaves as the cold comes in. That's the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z NAM has the vortmax well south of 12z through 36h...this could come in pretty juiced up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z NAM has the vortmax well south of 12z through 36h...this could come in pretty juiced up. It looks like it will come in pretty good mostly north of the Mass Pike. Vortmax is definitely a bit further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Euro ensembles have the 2nd storm but not surprisingly its SE of the OP...maybe 100 mi SE of the BM. EC ensembles look just a little east of the 00z version fwiw, but stronger. They also have a strong hangback trough which may mean a few weenie members in there. I think the writing's on the wall that the weekend system will be a non-event for SNE Indeed, much better than 09z I like those 8" probabilities. They'd even have me breaking out the snowblower. Too bad we can't use this as a base for a snow pack. Good for seasonal totals regardless. Just took a walk out back to the beaver pond and noticed three things: 1) I could have used an extra shawl 2) the beaver's latest dam might soon convert the thing into a decent skating pond 3) the wind hitting the pines without the decidous trees running interference had the definitive winter sound. Snow must be in the future. 50.8/33 off a high of 52.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It's a latitude issue. You are mild for the heaviest moisture, but then all the precip leaves as the cold comes in. That's the problem. It doesn't mean it is impossible, it's just a concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 It does? Your odds of 1" IMO are 10 percent or so I guess i don't understand you always rooting against me getting snow...I mean I'm psyched and pulling for as many of us on here as possible to pull some accumulating snow out of these 2 events. as much as most of us love snow..I would think that would be how peoplereact...You always look for ways for me not to get any Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 18z NAM has the vortmax well south of 12z through 36h...this could come in pretty juiced up. LOL it will look like the ETA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 The 48hr map is gonna look pretty good for most of Ma, and southern NH/Vt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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