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Summey

Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

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Thanks. I agree with wake, the title needs a little tweaking though. I'll give you a little while to reword it but if you have stepped away, I will.

One other note, I haven't been able to be around much for a few days (and my time will continue to be limited through the weekend) but there has been too much bickering and attitude of late among some. Already had to give someone a timeout this morning for that reason. Rest assured those who continue to argue, fight, or present an attitude..you will sit this storm out on the sidelines as far as this board goes. We normally are the most well behaved group on the board, which is something a lot of us have always been proud of and it's going to stay that way folks.

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Thanks. I agree with wake, the title needs a little tweaking though. I'll give you a little while to reword it but if you have stepped away, I will.

One other note, I haven't been able to be around much for a few days (and my time will continue to be limited through the weekend) but there has been too much bickering and attitude of late among some. Already had to give someone a timeout this morning for that reason. Rest assured those who continue to argue, fight, or present an attitude..you will sit this storm out on the sidelines as far as this board goes. We normally are the most well behaved group on the board, which is something a lot of us have always been proud of and it's going to stay that way folks.

:wub:

As of 5 am...

LOCATION...29.3N 77.2W

ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES

All of you eastern NC/SC peeps stay safe! :hug:

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Thanks. I agree with wake, the title needs a little tweaking though. I'll give you a little while to reword it but if you have stepped away, I will.

One other note, I haven't been able to be around much for a few days (and my time will continue to be limited through the weekend) but there has been too much bickering and attitude of late among some. Already had to give someone a timeout this morning for that reason. Rest assured those who continue to argue, fight, or present an attitude..you will sit this storm out on the sidelines as far as this board goes. We normally are the most well behaved group on the board, which is something a lot of us have always been proud of and it's going to stay that way folks.

Thank you for being our Lookout, sir!

Now, on with the storm. It looked like it was really going to strengthen last night but instead looks more ragged this morning. The pressure is still low though so we will probably see Irene strengthen today. Alan's last post on his site mentioned that right now the pressure is higher than Hugo but less than Fran even though the winds don't currently match up with the pressure. I was a little surprised. I believe that we forget how much damage 100 mph winds can do. Stay safe!

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SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...

INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...30.0N 77.3W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES

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I have been off and on the board, so I may have missed this disco, but has the threat of tornados in NC, VA...up the East Coast been talked about? I know the storm surger, Max winds and heavy rain has been brought to light, but what are the chances we have some Vortex's and any thoughts as to where? What side of the eye has the best chance to spawn some?

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I have been off and on the board, so I may have missed this disco, but has the threat of tornados in NC, VA...up the East Coast been talked about? I know the storm surger, Max winds and heavy rain has been brought to light, but what are the chances we have some Vortex's and any thoughts as to where? What side of the eye has the best chance to spawn some?

It is my understanding that the upper right quadrant of the storm produces the most tornadic activity.

we are already getting rain bands here in Brunswick County

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I have been off and on the board, so I may have missed this disco, but has the threat of tornados in NC, VA...up the East Coast been talked about? I know the storm surger, Max winds and heavy rain has been brought to light, but what are the chances we have some Vortex's and any thoughts as to where? What side of the eye has the best chance to spawn some?

North of the storm in general, NE side in particular...I would expect a few to spin up. I don't think it's a situation of a widespread outbreak like you have in the Gulf sometimes, but definitely something to keep an eye on. One good thing to say about them is they are usually rather small and short lived tornadoes.

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The storm is currently moving north. What I'm wondering is, if it starts to turn NNE, like it's modeled to do soon, will it miss NC completely? It doesn't have much real estate to work with already.

On another note, I'm leaving Carolina Beach this morning. One thing I found funny is that the local forecast on TWC calls for winds tomorrow 60-80 mph DIMINISHING to 40-60 mph. Anytime your wind diminishes to 60 mph, you know it's bad. :)

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The storm is currently moving north. What I'm wondering is, if it starts to turn NNE, like it's modeled to do soon, will it miss NC completely? It doesn't have much real estate to work with already.

On another note, I'm leaving Carolina Beach this morning. One thing I found funny is that the local forecast on TWC calls for winds tomorrow 60-80 mph DIMINISHING to 40-60 mph. Anytime your wind diminishes to 60 mph, you know it's bad. :)

Aside from the usual wobbles, I do not see any mechanism to turn this system to the NNE over the next 24 hrs. Of note, the 8am position is 1/10th of a degree west compared to 5am, now around 77.3. Also looks like a period of strengthening is on tap for today as the satellite presentation is improving. I expected the east shift with the 0z guidance last night, with some bleed over in the 6z runs, as the storm made a jog north of Abaco. Feel that was over done and we should see it begin to tick back to the left a little, with landfall around MHX, or just to the west of there.

As far as the tornado threat goes, we are just going to have to see how it plays out. Some systems are notorious producers, others not so much. Most likely area is the eastern flank, however, some storms have been known to buck that and produce them on the left side also.

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Tornadoes are what I am worried about here. I think we'll get some periods of heavy rain and some wind gusts, but the tornadoes are the biggest threat for anything big in this part of NC.

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Aside from the usual wobbles, I do not see any mechanism to turn this system to the NNE over the next 24 hrs. Of note, the 8am position is 1/10th of a degree west compared to 5am, now around 77.3. Also looks like a period of strengthening is on tap for today as the satellite presentation is improving. I expected the east shift with the 0z guidance last night, with some bleed over in the 6z runs, as the storm made a jog north of Abaco. Feel that was over done and we should see it begin to tick back to the left a little, with landfall around MHX, or just to the west of there.

As far as the tornado threat goes, we are just going to have to see how it plays out. Some systems are notorious producers, others not so much. Most likely area is the eastern flank, however, some storms have been known to buck that and produce them on the left side also.

Cool. Thanks man. Good catch with the 8 AM advisory. I didn't see that. Looking at the IR loop, it looks like it has wobbled slightly to the west in recent frames, but that is probably just an illusion given the raggedness of the storm. I really thought that I was going to wake up to a Cat 4 this morning after seeing the impressive satellite picture at 2 AM, but it went the other way. Should be over the Gulf Stream soon, so we'll se what happens.

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I have been off and on the board, so I may have missed this disco, but has the threat of tornados in NC, VA...up the East Coast been talked about? I know the storm surger, Max winds and heavy rain has been brought to light, but what are the chances we have some Vortex's and any thoughts as to where? What side of the eye has the best chance to spawn some?

As others have noted, the greatest tornado threat generally develops east of the center track on a north-bound storm.

SPC has addressed the issue in its Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks. Extreme eastern NC -- just the immediate coast -- is highlighted today for a 5% tornado area. As for tomorrow, SPC says, "it remains to be seen whether a significant tornado threat will materialize inland to the left of the cyclone track." So we'll have to stay tuned for future outlooks.

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Just had a nice rain band move through downtown, gust of 41mph was reported. On Folly Beach the wind knocked down a power line and the residents can't leave because it is blocking the only road to and from the island. Chas county schools cancelled classes today as well.

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A lot of folks live in the NYC. I assume most folks in that area have a hard time thinking they will feel any effects....

But I agree with you statement. It is all about population numbers.

I'm a little annoyed how the media is talking so much about the impact on NYC and not the coast of NC.

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I am suprised there hasn't been much discussion on the storm surge potential. Large wind field and consistent pressueres reading in the 940's, the surge the OBX could be a Cat 4 height for a minimal Cat 3 or stong Cat 2 wind speed.

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Well she never made the 78/30 benchmark so I think my landfall point may be ever so slightly too far west but I don't think it changes impacts all that much for inland areas. Basically I will report some rain and a few twigs down.

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I am sure that most of you already know. For the newer members there is great Irene disco & many threads on the main board. All the questions asked here have answers over there. Steve (Dacula) has some awesome radar loops running. To all the Coastal SE peeps.....Stay safe & use common sense. My thoughts are with you.

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Is there a chance this could continue north into Eastern Carolina before it gets kicked NNE? It seems to be moving at a decent clip right now and I read somewhere on the boards about there being a 20 hour window before anything touches the system.

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Is there a chance this could continue north into Eastern Carolina before it gets kicked NNE? It seems to be moving at a decent clip right now and I read somewhere on the boards about there being a 20 hour window before anything touches the system.

All depends on the track over the next 12 hrs or so, and how the wobbles shake out. Gaining from the mainside model thread, GFDL, exper HWRF, UKMET, and NOGAPS are west of the OFC track. 12z runs still shows some spread, but the consensus is good, and just left of the 5am forecast track. Would not be surprised to see her come in around 77W, Emerald Isle/Bogue Banks, just west of MHX. Also expecting a little bit of a slow down in forward speed as it approaches NC

post-382-0-72372800-1314367290.png

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Small treat this morning, good morning Irene

(5MB loop, if too big to post here, i'll just link to it)

Irene-Visible-8.47am.8-26-11.gif

That is good porn right there!

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Is there a chance this could continue north into Eastern Carolina before it gets kicked NNE? It seems to be moving at a decent clip right now and I read somewhere on the boards about there being a 20 hour window before anything touches the system.

Its possible, all we can do now is watch and let her do what she's gonna do. There are no strong westerlies or trough to really kick her east so if the ridge is any stronger at all or holds just a bit longe then she could come more north and several models still like this idea, but really for us its gonna be close. If she takes the exact track NHC currently has we will be about 60 miles west of a 120 mph center. So winds here will exceed 75+ in gust and our 2 min average will prolly be 40-50 maybe a touch higher. If it goes ANY further west then we could see winds 100+ with a 2 min average 60-70.

Of course if she goes east at all we could end up with just strong TS type conditions so its going to be a long, long day.....my suggestion is dont watch the wobble.....

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Its possible, all we can do now is watch and let her do what she's gonna do. There are no strong westerlies or trough to really kick her east so if the ridge is any stronger at all or holds just a bit longe then she could come more north and several models still like this idea, but really for us its gonna be close. If she takes the exact track NHC currently has we will be about 60 miles west of a 120 mph center. So winds here will exceed 75+ in gust and our 2 min average will prolly be 40-50 maybe a touch higher. If it goes ANY further west then we could see winds 100+ with a 2 min average 60-70.

Of course if she goes east at all we could end up with just strong TS type conditions so its going to be a long, long day.....my suggestion is dont watch the wobble.....

experimental HWRF, takes the center from roughly Newport to Plymouth, with landfall around 11am

slp14.png

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experimental HWRF, takes the center from roughly Newport to Plymouth, with landfall around 11am

slp14.png

That would put us squarely in the western eyewall would most likely be getting close to hurricane force 2 min averages..... only other time thats happened here is Hazel.

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