Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

[HKY_WX]

The only reason it was hyped to the degree it was is b/c it was heading towards the northeast. That was 90% of it. When it's all said and done NC will have had considerably more damage than any other state. It certainly wasn't over-hyped here. Like lookout said, expect more coverage when a weather event heads towards the center of the universe. I never expected this to do much damage up there other than what would happen in a strong nor'easter. It wasn't strong enough, moving fast enough, and the angle was all wrong. This was no Long Island Express.

[WidreMann]

Come on now. Which forecast? For days you said no landfall it was a fish storm, then changed again and then again. I for one was hoping you were right so people wouldn't have the damage that they have today

It pretty much was a fish storm. It rode off the coast and aside from the fact that the outer banks stick out into the Atlantic, it stayed mostly offshore until NJ (and even then, only sort of). I never said I expected it to take a wide right and affect nobody.

[jrips27]

Don't look now but...

12z Nogaps (For Weenie Entertainment only)

[jburns]

It pretty much was a fish storm. It rode off the coast and aside from the fact that the outer banks stick out into the Atlantic, it stayed mostly offshore until NJ (and even then, only sort of). I never said I expected it to take a wide right and affect nobody.

Perhaps but I'll tell you one thing. It was a lot more fun being in it than sitting around arguing over what it was. I had a great time in Morehead City. Only wish it had come in during the day.

[Mencken_Fan]

It pretty much was a fish storm. It rode off the coast and aside from the fact that the outer banks stick out into the Atlantic, it stayed mostly offshore until NJ (and even then, only sort of). I never said I expected it to take a wide right and affect nobody.

While the above is true, it takes little insight to declare "climatology" for every Atlantic storm; nor could one make a living always betting on it - because the bookies would give such poor odds against it.

The most rewarding move would be wagering on climatology and accepting the (steadily diminishing) payoffs until the time frame approaches when betting against the models becomes a losing proposition.

A "long shot" at long-range is much easier to hit than a long shot at medium or less range. The payoff odds would be low at the long range, rising steadily with new wagers as the event neared. Bookies of course being no fools.

Congratulations to anyone who gets a "hit' at the long range are in order but should be tempered by the reality of statistics.

[WidreMann]

While the above is true, it takes little insight to declare "climatology" for every Atlantic storm; nor could one make a living always betting on it - because the bookies would give such poor odds against it.

The most rewarding move would be wagering on climatology and accepting the (steadily diminishing) payoffs until the time frame approaches when betting against the models becomes a losing proposition.

A "long shot" at long-range is much easier to hit than a long shot at medium or less range. The payoff odds would be low at the long range, rising steadily with new wagers as the event neared. Bookies of course being no fools.

Congratulations to anyone who gets a "hit' at the long range are in order but should be tempered by the reality of statistics.

I wasn't betting on climatology, I was looking at the pattern and trends.

[Blue Ridge]

I wasn't betting on climatology, I was looking at the pattern and trends.

While your pessimism is to the disdain of many on this board, you made a fairly accurate prediction.

Instead of wasting time being butthurt over Widre, be thankful this wasn't as bad as it could have been, and relish the storm for what it was. Huge 950mb cat ones don't come along that often.

[Mencken_Fan]

Perhaps but I'll tell you one thing. It was a lot more fun being in it than sitting around arguing over what it was. I had a great time in Morehead City. Only wish it had come in during the day.

BINGO!

I can't help but laugh to myself at the posters who poo-poo all the "imperfect" storms. A storm, by any other name is still a storm; and Carolina storms are for the most part "good ones."

20-30' storm surges wiping whole towns off the map? Please excuse our disappointment in not enjoying that thrill. 150mph winds tearing everything to shreds? Oh how exciting....just not IMBY thank you.

I'll take 6 hours of 60mph gusts any day over those storms. And it certainly beats the crap out of sitting around a computer on a pleasant day whining about how crummy someone else's storm is (could anything be more pointless?)

[Mencken_Fan]

I wasn't betting on climatology, I was looking at the pattern and trends.

In either case, you made intelligent wagers and walk away from the table with the most chips. Furthermore, the model trend allowed you to parlay your winnings repeatedly.

You leave the Irene table with pockets full of gold. Congratulations.

[ECUPiratewx]

Well...that was something else. I went out the first time around 1 PM, probably in the height of the storm from what I'm reading on here, had a blast. I was in middle school during Floyd, and lived in Wilson Co., so I didn't really "experience" any of the storm during the storm, so to speak....crazy stuff. I have a really, REALLY hard time believing max winds were in the 60s, though I did read they might be inaccurate due to power failure. I'd guess at least 80 when I was outside (I decided to walk a bit, not a good idea). Anyways, on to what I saw and heard..

Tree fell in our backyard right between the house and the shed. Very, very blessed...it couldn't have fallen in any other direction and missed both. Did rip the cable lines out, so no cable/internet at the house for a couple days probably. Lots of major flooding in Greenville itself. The Lower Minges Lot (basketball stadium parking) was submerged, there was one poor souls car still parked in there, could see about the top foot of the car that was it, along with College Hill parking (though it floods if someone sneezes bad enough ). Greenville Colonial Mall had flooding throughout the lot (didn't appear to make it inside when I drove by around 730ish last night). I had a couple friends that had gone out earlier in the day and got stuck with no way back to their homes. Some of the bigger roads such as Arlington, Greenville, Evans, Elm, and Red Banks all had either trees down or flooding all the way across. On Red Banks I saw two cars stranded in the middle of the roadway from flooding. Apparently one of the ECU residents halls (Greene, on the Western side of campus) had some flooding due to pipes bursting and windows blowing out, and Campus Towers (across from Greene), had some damage on the outside...sort of looked like part of the wall came off to be honest.

Back in my hometown Elm City (northern Wilson Co.) there was a tornado to touch down in our subdivision actually. Ripped a couple power lines out, twisted the trees...trees into a few houses up there. Apparently Wilson-Elm City-Rocky Mount had a good period of higher than expected winds from what I hear. Of course, so did we in Greenville so I guess that's not too shocking.

As of right now, powers back on in MOST of the inner part of Greenville, and most of the water has subsided. I read a couple of you guys talking about chances in the next couple weeks and I hope not. We're going to be in a similar situation to right before Floyd came through for a little bit here, and definitely can't afford another strong Hurricane. Long ways off, so hopefully nothing gets together.

[tarheelwx]

Sure there's always more hype when it is supposed to hit the NE. Just like an f4 tornado hitting the triangle or charlotte rather than an eastern NC wooded area inhabited only by bears, deer, coons, etc. Regardless of what anyone says, this storm hit as a Cat 1 and not as the Cat 3 or 4 that many were fearing AND predicting. I'm sure if Irene had winds of 40 mph greater all the way up the coast, the situation would have been far different. When the hype started, few if anyone were predicting a cat 1.

TW

[JQPublic]

Peak wind gust at PGV which is 9 miles NW of me said 65 which I believe is BS. We got beat up and i've been through hurricanes and I know we atleast gusted to hurricane force. Some of the gusts in this storm were insane. The vid doesn't do it justice but these trees were bending to the breaking point ALOT but they are tough trees!

Nice! Thanks for sharing. It looks like a lot of those pines have vines growing up the full length of the trunk like poison ivy, Virginia creeper, or English ivy...which provides more surface area for the winds to "grab onto" the trees.

Glad you fared ok!

[tarheelwx]

It pretty much was a fish storm. It rode off the coast and aside from the fact that the outer banks stick out into the Atlantic, it stayed mostly offshore until NJ (and even then, only sort of). I never said I expected it to take a wide right and affect nobody.

I wouldn't call it a fish storm. It was just a lot weaker than most reputable mets were predicting.

TW

[POWERSTROKE]

Don't look now but...

12z Nogaps (For Weenie Entertainment only)

I posted this in the banner thread earlier. One of them could be interesting. I have seen on other sites that the gulf could get one started soon. Most saying it will start in gulf

[ECUPiratewx]

I wouldn't call it a fish storm. It was just a lot weaker than most reputable mets were predicting.

TW

I suppose it depends on your definition of fish storm. Jose is what I'd define as a fish storm. Irene definitely was not, IMO.

[WeatherNC]

Hey guys, still no power or cell signal where I live, have to come into the city to post. Greenville looks like a Coastal city that was in the right front of a strong tropical storm, easily 60-80 mph winds rolled through here, damage I am seeing supports that, mostly trees, but some light structural stuff. Seeing a pretty good response rolling into ENC, lists os convoys, and I am at the food lion on the iPhone with a USCG mobile command center staging behind me, with semis loaded down with big generators. Hearing it may be a couple more days before I get it back, unsure. Took a good bit shingle and water damage to the house, outback looks like a train wreck, large maples and poplars, sheared about 40 ft up. Going to be a couple weeks of cleanup with school and all, plus how large are lot is. Stay safe, great storm!!!! Got my wind, and some damage to go along with it, taking the good with the bad!

[downeastnc]

Hey guys, still no power or cell signal where I live, have to come into the city to post. Greenville looks like a Coastal city that was in the right front of a strong tropical storm, easily 60-80 mph winds rolled through here, damage I am seeing supports that, mostly trees, but some light structural stuff. Seeing a pretty good response rolling into ENC, lists os convoys, and I am at the food lion on the iPhone with a USCG mobile command center staging behind me, with semis loaded down with big generators. Hearing it may be a couple more days before I get it back, unsure. Took a good bit shingle and water damage to the house, outback looks like a train wreck, large maples and poplars, sheared about 40 ft up. Going to be a couple weeks of cleanup with school and all, plus how large are lot is. Stay safe, great storm!!!! Got my wind, and some damage to go along with it, taking the good with the bad!

Its amazing to me that PGV hasnt got a reading over 65mph I mean flat out baffles me. GUC has the radar channel ( CH 35) and they have a realtime update of wind speeds you can actually watch it go up and down and they had recorded a top wind gust of 73 MPH before we lost power around 9am. They had had a wind over 60 by 7:30 and from then until around noon it slowly got worse with gust after gust topping 60. Then from 12-3 it went nuts there had to be dozens of gust over hurricane force and there were a few that are some of the worst wind gust I have ever seen with almost white out like conditions and debris whipping by the house, not leafs and such but full on branches flying close to a hundred feet. I have a video I am uploading that shows what it was like all day but it seemed everytime I tried to film a truely huge gust I couldnt get it. The gust in most of our videos are into the 60's and of course we missed all the greatest gusts I got to get a for real video camera and not use my digital camera.

After 3 it was different the background wind died off but we had gust that were more vertical like downburst so it would go from a 10-20 mph breeze to 50-70 mph and the wind was sharp not at all like the big gust you hear coming from a ways off like we did earlier.

We drove to Shaggys around 4:30 to check on his house and finally found the handheld we couldnt find earlier and went out behind his house in a open yard and within a few minutes had recorded a 70 mph gust and this was at 4:58 in the afternoon....again I am not sure if just being 10 miles or so more west than the airport really made that big of a difference or if PGV just seems to read low.

[crossthread]

just got my power back here in ILM folks..

Shot alittle video @ the crack of Dawn, Irenes CRAZY backside!

WOW!

got quite a few pictures also.

Thankfully, We didn't loose our Fishing piers, they came through OK.

LOTS of Fallin trees, on Homes etc...

Let me resize the Pictures, and upload the video pieces, so everyone can see..

Hope everyone Made out OK..

CT

[POWERSTROKE]

just got my power back here in ILM folks..

Shot alittle video @ the crack of Dawn, Irenes CRAZY backside!

WOW!

got quite a few pictures also.

Thankfully, We didn't loose our Fishing piers, they came through OK.

LOTS of Fallin trees, on Homes etc...

Let me resize the Pictures, and upload the video pieces, so everyone can see..

Hope everyone Made out OK..

CT

glad you made it through

[downeastnc]

My parents neighbor knows some folks that work at the mine in Aurora and he told us that they said the weather instruments at the mine had a sustained wind of 90 mph. This is on the south side of the Pamlico River and is the river is about 5 miles wide there, our neighbor has ( or had he hasnt heard it if survived) a cottage at the mouth of South Creek on Hickort Pt, whats even crazier is that location is only about 35 miles east of us.

For the record I suspect the instruments are elevated a good deal.......

[NCSNOW]

They ought to nickname this road National Hurricane Hwy. I dont think it's ever made it 5 years consecutive without being rip to shreads by a storm. pic is of Hwy 12 out of N/O

[downeastnc]

They ought to nickname this road National Hurricane Hwy. I dont think it's ever made it 5 years consecutive without being rip to shreads by a storm. pic is of Hwy 12 out of N/O

Yep there were several new inlets cut.

http://www.wral.com/weather/video/10057638/#/vid10057638

[Mencken_Fan]

just got my power back here in ILM folks..

Shot alittle video @ the crack of Dawn, Irenes CRAZY backside!

WOW!

got quite a few pictures also.

Thankfully, We didn't loose our Fishing piers, they came through OK.

LOTS of Fallin trees, on Homes etc...

Let me resize the Pictures, and upload the video pieces, so everyone can see..

Hope everyone Made out OK..

CT

Hello crossthread....and I thought my 18hr outage was bad; yikes.

I fell asleep at 2am; windy but power was on. Woke up to all the noise outside at 6:30am. Lost power around 4am; regained around 10pm. Bought ice in early evening to save fridge which was getting too warm for comfort. Not surprised, Progress Energy working it's way south to north got to you later than me; but surprised just how late.

Backside a big surprise eh; strong and relentless! Seemed like it would never end!

Trees my area: some knocked to ground, some bent at odd angles, and one snapped in half.

My neighborhood (Racine/New Center) no longer an automatic flood disaster after major project last year to fix creek and pond.

Only wish it had been during the day time. Perhaps the next one eh?

[Isopycnic]

Kill Devil Hills Flyover: using a RC plane.

http://www.youtube.com/hurricanetrack#p/u/12/ZTIX97SBLBI