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Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

Summey

By Summey,
in Southeastern States

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

It's just been a rainy day here.

I know it was still a cat 1 storm, but a lot of mets were calling for this to be a cat 3 when it hit. Big difference. Just another example of not relying on the models for intesnisty. The models can show you there is a chance of rain, snow, or a hurricane is coming, but as far as how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

It's just been a rainy day here.

I know it was still a cat 1 storm, but a lot of mets were calling for this to be a cat 3 when it hit. Big difference. Just another example of not relying on the models for intesnisty. The models can show you there is a chance of rain, snow, or a hurricane is coming, but as far as how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

How many times will you post the same thing? Well, maybe not "exactly" the same thing, but the same thing, really.

"The models suck." "Suck do the models." "You can't trust the models." "You just can't trust the models." "You really, can't trust the models." "You just really, can't trust the models." "You really just can't trust the models." "You just can't trust the models, really."

Is that what you mean?

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Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

Lost power at 9:38. Running DSL modem and laptop on deep-cycle battery/inverter.

High gust locally (2.5 miles from my house) 52 mph before power outage deprived me of live readings from that station. Conditions have been ramping up since then, though.

Storm rain total so far at my house is 5.02".

I've seen a couple of vehicles turn around in my driveway, so I take that to mean the road is blocked.

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Brick Tamland

Brick Tamland

Posted
Posted

How many times will you post the same thing? Well, maybe not "exactly" the same thing, but the same thing, really.

"The models suck." "Suck do the models." "You can't trust the models." "You just can't trust the models." "You really, can't trust the models." "You just really, can't trust the models." "You really just can't trust the models." "You just can't trust the models, really."

Is that what you mean?

OK, I get it. Sorry. I just think they should be more dependable. It ends up hyping things more than what really happens and then people start to think the weather folks are crying wolf.

But it looks like things are bad at the coast even for this being just a cat 1 hurricane.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

It's just been a rainy day here.

I know it was still a cat 1 storm, but a lot of mets were calling for this to be a cat 3 when it hit. Big difference. Just another example of not relying on the models for intesnisty. The models can show you there is a chance of rain, snow, or a hurricane is coming, but as far as how bad it will be is anyone's guess.

You do understand why they're called computer "models" right? Jeesh. I'm one of the one's in the camp that thinks that the models did a good job with Irene...sure the intensity didn't make it up quite to where it was forecast, but intensity models are "models". If they were close to being correct all the time, this would be a really boring weather board. Enjoy the unexpected, that what makes this interesting.

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

OK, I get it. Sorry. I just think they should be more dependable. It ends up hyping things more than what really happens and then people start to think the weather folks are crying wolf.

Well, you have to define what suck means. I think they nailed the track pretty well. The intensity, well, that's a different story....to some extent. I think three days out to have a hurricane placed in close proximity to where it ends up is pretty good. That's certainly better than it used to be. But if you think because they're off by 50 miles, that sucks, then our definition of sucks is maybe a little different. Models don't hype things. People do. And people certainly did with this storm. But is there room for improvement in the models? Yes, absolutely....a lot of room. As far as intensity goes, it's going to be a long time before that gets a lot better, probably.

I'm not trying to be critical of you. Sorry if I came across that way. Just trying to make the point that you've made your point well.

On another note, the rain shield has finally made it to my house. I'm getting pummeled by light rain drops now.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Lost power at 9:38. Running DSL modem and laptop on deep-cycle battery/inverter.

High gust locally (2.5 miles from my house) 52 mph before power outage deprived me of live readings from that station. Conditions have been ramping up since then, though.

Storm rain total so far at my house is 5.02".

I've seen a couple of vehicles turn around in my driveway, so I take that to mean the road is blocked.

Have some siding as well as shingles in my front yard, not mine though,wrong color. Planning on jumping on 264e and hitting the hospital for lunch. Wind is almost due north right now, and looking a bv, think we are starting to see a local wind max form along the coastal plain. This was modeled by the GFS and Euro, and now radar supports it. This is not your typical cat 1 cane, going to be awake up call for many in ENC I believe.

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WidreMann

WidreMann

Posted
Posted

Well, you have to define what suck means. I think they nailed the track pretty well. The intensity, well, that's a different story....to some extent. I think three days out to have a hurricane placed in close proximity to where it ends up is pretty good. That's certainly better than it used to be. But if you think because they're off by 50 miles, that sucks, then our definition of sucks is maybe a little different. Models don't hype things. People do. And people certainly did with this storm. But is there room for improvement in the models? Yes, absolutely....a lot of room. As far as intensity goes, it's going to be a long time before that gets a lot better, probably.

I'm not trying to be critical of you. Sorry if I came across that way. Just trying to make the point that you've made your point well.

On another note, the rain shield has finally made it to my house. I'm getting pummeled by light rain drops now.

I think Brick might be functionally retarded, like his namesake.

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Stormsfury

Stormsfury

Posted
Posted

Storm has pretty much passed Charleston by. A little bit of tree damage, including a tree split completely in half on James Island.

The initial outer squall yesterday about this time, produced the strong wind gust here during the entire time being in the envelope of Irene, and did pick up some very heavy rain with some elevated thunder with it. Aside from that, it just remained very breezy during the evening and overnight with generally 15-20 mph sustained winds with occasional gusts to 30 mph and remained dry.

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

Winds really picking up again here in Greenville. Power out, friend has seen multiple trees down and several fell on houses and my neighbors have a tree down as well. Getting gusts in the 60-70 range I'd estimate. Winds starting to intensify again after a brief lull.

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Bozart

Bozart

Posted
Posted

I'm at 6.07" storm total now. Still coming down about .80"/hr. Winds about 30 gusting to 45 with an occasional low 60s in squalls. Can only locate one friend who still has power east of me. With such widespread outages, you have to wonder how long some of us will have to wait.

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poptones

poptones

Posted
Posted

Some of you will laugh, but just passed one inch of rain (20 mile north of Raleigh).We have barely been inside of the rain zone. Will probably end up with anotherhalf inch. Been a good soaking rain…

gottay say I'm a lot less on edge now that it's started to rain at a steady enough clip here; was worried we'd get passed with next to nothing. the hotdog.gif in me is a little jealous of those out east (who have been doing an amazing job throughout this whole thing, btw) but then again I can do without the flooding and snapped trees here in raleigh.

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JQPublic

JQPublic

Posted
Posted

Some of you will laugh, but just passed one inch of rain (20 mile north of Raleigh).We have barely been inside of the rain zone. Will probably end up with anotherhalf inch. Been a good soaking rain…

No worries, I'm in Western Wake right on the border of Chatham Cty and we've maybe had 0.5" of rain. I don't think we rcvd any of that bonus rain earlier in the day yesterday either. Winds are quite brisk right now.

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