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Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

Summey

By Summey,
in Southeastern States

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

Nah I will be in the Lowe's parking lot near my folks home getting wind obs, we usually ride them out there since there are lots of big trees close but not to close to the house makes for some great video and its a daytime hit too WOOOOHOOOOO....

On the downside my I am a groomsman in my brother-in-laws wedding tonight at 7 pm :arrowhead: so it wont be till after then I get my crap together and I most likely wont go to my parents home until 6-7am I figure worst here on the current timeline will be 10-4 tomorrow

here is a map of where a few of us are just for scale its 66 miles as the crow flies from my pin to where Josh is.

Be careful guys! I want to see some good videos and pics from the storm and aftermath. Also be sure to check in after you get power back.....

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ECUPiratewx

ECUPiratewx

Posted
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Thanks to the Greenville posters and everyone in here. Been lurking since November/December and you guys have done a really good job with this, IMO.

I remember reading one of you make a point about 77.5 degrees, which seems to have been met now, with still that sort of slight NNW jog. I'm inclined to agree that Morehead City - west is still very much in play and probably more likely for a direct hit. Don't particularly think Irene's going to get much stronger, I know opinions are sort of varied around here. Wouldn't be shocked for a west-of-Morehead hit with max sustained winds around 100/105 at this point. Still pretty serious for all of us down this way, but much better than the worst case scenario a couple days ago.

Just curious Downeast, are you referring to the Lowes down on 10th heading out of Greenville?

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Center starting to show up on ILM, with a few squalls back to RDU. Crystal Coast is starting to get into the solid shield, and just had a squall here that put a dent in the drought. Only lasted a couple minutes, but fat drops, mini-pancakes! Been awhile since I have seen a tropical squall, unmistakable structure inbound, love it... Checking obs, Coastal Plain stations in and out of the bands, 15 G25

post-382-0-06423500-1314383970.png

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

Thanks to the Greenville posters and everyone in here. Been lurking since November/December and you guys have done a really good job with this, IMO.

I remember reading one of you make a point about 77.5 degrees, which seems to have been met now, with still that sort of slight NNW jog. I'm inclined to agree that Morehead City - west is still very much in play and probably more likely for a direct hit. Don't particularly think Irene's going to get much stronger, I know opinions are sort of varied around here. Wouldn't be shocked for a west-of-Morehead hit with max sustained winds around 100/105 at this point. Still pretty serious for all of us down this way, but much better than the worst case scenario a couple days ago.

Just curious Downeast, are you referring to the Lowes down on 10th heading out of Greenville?

Yep thats the one....

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Thanks to the Greenville posters and everyone in here. Been lurking since November/December and you guys have done a really good job with this, IMO.

I remember reading one of you make a point about 77.5 degrees, which seems to have been met now, with still that sort of slight NNW jog. I'm inclined to agree that Morehead City - west is still very much in play and probably more likely for a direct hit. Don't particularly think Irene's going to get much stronger, I know opinions are sort of varied around here. Wouldn't be shocked for a west-of-Morehead hit with max sustained winds around 100/105 at this point. Still pretty serious for all of us down this way, but much better than the worst case scenario a couple days ago.

Just curious Downeast, are you referring to the Lowes down on 10th heading out of Greenville?

Welcome to the board, always great to have another PGV member, and love the name! Take a few minutes when you have time, and update your profile, top left tab down under "Signed in as." Add you location, and even a slick mid-field logo pick if you want.

Unless a serious easterly component materializes over the next couple fixes, this may be coming onshore near Onslow Bay/Swansboro. Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station

is at Lat: 34.71 Lon: -77.43 for the reference,

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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If so that is like a minute away from me I live on East 10th street.

LOL small world, my folks home is in that little neighborhood right before you get to Lowes. Usually get good video there as the trees take a beating but cant really hit the house when they come down, and its a 2 sec drive or walk up to a wide open parking lot for more open shots.

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

that little wobble to the NW is going to be corrected with the next wobble to the right.

Not sure I would call 10 hrs of just W of N motion a wobble, in fact it hasnt had a plot go back east more than a 10th of a degree all day. In order for it to make the NHC track as it stands it pretty much needs to start moving NE right now and every hr it goes a little further W of N that that much hard it has to turn to hit the current forecasted landfall point.

Have had numerous heavy tropical downpours starting to think the local guys calling for 10-15" might have it right.

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beanskip

beanskip

Posted
Posted

Well, with all respect, at this point, whether or not it's a "wobble' is moot. When a storm is this close to landfall, gaining .2 degrees of longitude that wasn't forecast is a significant event. This things is going to have to work HARD to land east of Morehead City.

that little wobble to the NW is going to be corrected with the next wobble to the right.

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

The problem with hyping the most extreme case of the models is when it doesn't happen, which it usually does not 90% of the time, then people start to tune out and think the media and weather folks are crying wolf. So when a real extreme event does happen, people don't pay attention and get caught off guard. I just wish the models were more realiable.

You are exactly right about the effect it has on the people's perception. As you said, It's why when there are truly strong canes, you have so many stay behind because they don't believe it will be as bad as predicted. I don't know how many times i've seen people get interviewed before a storm say that. The media is woefully irresponsible and greatly at fault for this behavior.

But the thing is, it's not the models really. Sure some had a lot of strengthening but many were showing a cat 2 to low end cat 3. It's people like JB who always chooses the most extreme solution and hypes everything to death and tries to scare the hell out of people that is the problem.

I have to say though the models were pretty terrible with this storm in some regards. Having virtually all of them go from the eastern gulf to barely scraping eastern NC is a pretty big miss..even by 4 and 5 day forecasts. Watching them shift east 50 to 100 miles every single run was crazy. OTOH, the global models saw this storm 10 days ago threatening the US so that's pretty impressive. And they have been right on the far eastern solution once they finally settled down and have been consistently clustered now for a couple of days. So a mix bag to me with regard to the models performances.

Sorry with my previous post, I got a bit ranty. :whistle:

Does anyone have (or have a link to) a precip forecast through tomorrow? A bit curious what the latest estimates are as to how much rain Irene will drop. I know there's still the potential for wild variance depending on storm speed and track.

Good grief, don't apologize, you were exactly right. Besides, your post was nothing compared to my ranting lol

Here is HPC"s most recent take on amounts...some ridiculously high amounts over eastern nc, va, etc. Seeing those totals really makes me feel sick when I think about it looked like for a long time it would head in ga/western carolinas general direction.

d13_fill.gif

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
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What sucks is I gotta leave to go get ready for a wedding and will be away from a PC till 9-10 tonight....I have my phone but I got enough self control to not pull up AMWX while they're getting married ( I hope ) anyways keep the updates coming, 12-18 hrs from now the **** is gonna hit the fan around here I think.

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NCSNOW

NCSNOW

Posted
Posted

Best wishes to everyone down east. Spent 10 years growing up down there as well as a few friends back up this way with coastal property. Thinking back over the past 10 days funny how climo won out on Irene's final track. Theres no way now it will avoid making landfall on the NC coast. Felt all along Brunswick to Carterett would be where the rubber meets the road. Not set in stone yet so we'll see what happens over the next 18-24 hours. The one element I'm most concerened with is the surge and coastal erosion thats gonna take place. The pressure is so low for this storm, even though the winds don't reflect it. But those 75mph+ wind are spread way out encompassing a larger than normal radius. This IMO will make the surge even more pronounced to the right of the eye. Ocracoke and eastern Carterett county, out toward the town of Atlantic I'm afraid are gonna get permanetly rearranged. Hopefully as stated above you guys can share your expierences when you recover power wise after the storm.

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Moose4

Moose4

Posted
Posted

Thanks Lookout. That's why I'm paying close attention to those "wobbles"...every mile that thing closes in to the west pushes those of us in the Triangle further under that steep precip gradient. Also, if the recurve angle back to the NNE stays the same, it brings the storm out *over* Norfolk/Virginia Beach and not offshore of it, and I've got enough friends up there that it's worrying me a bit.

On another board I hang out on some people are already griping about the nonstop "ZOMG WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE" media coverage...I'm explaining to them that yeah, it's overhyped because that's what the media does nowadays regardless of subject. But a foot of rain and several feet of storm surge into NYC is still going to suck even if the place doesn't come out looking like an Irwin Allen disaster movie.

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Poimen

Poimen

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Posted

Well, with all respect, at this point, whether or not it's a "wobble' is moot. When a storm is this close to landfall, gaining .2 degrees of longitude that wasn't forecast is a significant event. This things is going to have to work HARD to land east of Morehead City.

I agree on being so close to landfall that the wobbles are important. However, I don't think it's going to have to work as hard as one might think to go east of Morehead. Guidance is unanimous on a NNE track commencing soon, and there is no reason to think that will not happen.

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feloniousq

feloniousq

Posted
Posted

I agree on being so close to landfall that the wobbles are important. However, I don't think it's going to have to work as hard as one might think to go east of Morehead. Guidance is unanimous on a NNE track commencing soon, and there is no reason to think that will not happen.

The Euro and the NOGAPS both now have it hitting west of Morehead. I think that, plus the westerlies dying down and the storm speeding up, make a NE turn far from "unanimous".

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downeastnc

downeastnc

Posted
Posted

The Euro and the NOGAPS both now have it hitting west of Morehead. I think that, plus the westerlies dying down and the storm speeding up, make a NE turn far from "unanimous".

Yeah little reason for it to make this turn and so far its west of the models track for this timeframe from this morning, and with more recent models shifting west one has to think NHC is going to come right at 5 unless it REALLY starts to move NE.

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