Hurricane Irene and the mid-Atlantic (Pre-game show)

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

There is some hardcore weenie panic going on in the NYC thread its great.

[real]

Not to defend DT, but I saw plenty of forecasters and maps on various channels -- CNN, etc -- that showed Irene as a 4 approaching or just southeast of the North Carolina Coast. And Hurricane Center was also sort of strongly implying in its discussions it could top at a 4 somewhere between Bahamas and NC. The fact it could considerably be a 1 at Landfall is sort of amazing.

But, as someone else said, seems to be all biggies since Charlie and Andrew have been making landfall far less than initially forecast. Wasn't Katrina supposed to be a 5 and ended up a 3? Same with Ike, Rita? And Isabel made landfall less than expected.

[H2O]

Any possibility that the front in the midwest pushes Irene away from the coast?

If the models haven't shown it by now then no.

[Kicking Up A Storm]

Hurricane Irene drinking game: Every time the GFS shifts, have a drink. We'll be well drunk before the night is out!

[chris87]

Not to defend DT, but I saw plenty of forecasters and maps on various channels -- CNN, etc -- that showed Irene as a 4 approaching or just southeast of the North Carolina Coast. And Hurricane Center was also sort of strongly implying in its discussions it could top at a 4 somewhere between Bahamas and NC. The fact it could considerably be a 1 at Landfall is sort of amazing.

But, as someone else said, seems to be all biggies since Charlie and Andrew have been making landfall far less than initially forecast. Wasn't Katrina supposed to be a 5 and ended up a 3? Same with Ike, Rita? And Isabel made landfall less than expected.

Yes, there's a lot of things that can go wrong as landfall occurs...ingesting cool stable continental air....dry continental air....cool shelf waters / upwelling...it's more likely that a storm weakens around landfall than strengthens

[real]

There is some hardcore weenie panic going on in the NYC thread its great.

If it turns out there is no real coastal flooding/severe wind damage, will the mass evacuations caused by this eclipse Hurricane Floyd in terms of unnecessary evacuations? I am actually hoping NYC gets pretty rough conditions, since it's evacuating 270,000 people. If this turns into a minor event, will NY ever again order evacuations -- and will New Yorkers listen if they do - the next time?

[usedtobe]

Looks a lot wetter than the 12Z run, 2 inches for DCA and 4 or 5 for me. it certainly has shifted towards the wetter Euro. As to intensity, none of the models are that good but I could see calvert county getting guests over 50.

[Ian]

i'll give you climo won on intensity...but climo would have also would say a TC at this point would be in the process of recurving...so let's call it a split decision....i'd say most of the guidance has been pretty good for the past few days forecasting what is an anomalous track....i'd much rather over forecast intensity and correctly forecast track...then correctly forecast intensity and have forecasts errors of 300 km too far to the east, leading to an non-forecast landfall

on a completely unrelated note....wrt to models and their accuracy...one way to humble a weenie or even some red-tagger you'd respect would be to lock them in a room, hand them a 200mb / 500 mb / 700 mb / 850 mb / sfc analysis and ask them to draw a 24/48/72 hour forecast map....hell people should just try it for fun...

well of course you can't weight climo in a track if the pattern doesnt support it. still i'd argue the folks up north got into way too much a frenzy given the foreword speed expected. in most cases their big blows come from a storm racing north. this setup did not feature that even if it will perhaps end up going faster than expected (which is also a climo norm).

the mid-2000s screwed with everyone. not all storms explode etc. this kind of scenario seems pretty common of late.

but for all of us wanting rain this has all been good news so whatever.. destruction of nyc wouldnt be that fun in the end anyway.

[chris87]

well of course you can't weight climo in a track if the pattern doesnt support it. still i'd argue the folks up north got into way too much a frenzy given the foreword speed expected. in most cases their big blows come from a storm racing north. this setup did not feature that even if it will perhaps end up going faster than expected (which is also a climo norm).

the mid-2000s screwed with everyone. not all storms explode etc. this kind of scenario seems pretty common of late.

but for all of us wanting rain this has all been good news so whatever.. destruction of nyc wouldnt be that fun in the end anyway.

There's a probably a good case to be made that some of the global models shouldn't be expected and/or used in intensity forecasts. I think we all can say there is something wrong with the Euro and TCs lately, likely tied to an increase in spatial resolution, leading it to over amplify the strength of TCs.

One thing I learned from the mid-2000s....models can be just as bad when it comes to forecasting intensification...i'd have to go back and look but I think in this case, the SHIPS guidance never really supported strong strengthening...

Yes bring on the rain.

[yoda]

15z SREF individual members

[Kicking Up A Storm]

I still don't exactly see why there's excitement for DC still rumbling around. 2inches over 12 hours? We've gotten 2 inches of rain in a brief 45min thunderstorm before! Same with gusts of wind circa 30mph. Maybe there's excitement for the east trend being wrong? All I'm clinging to is nowcasting springing a nice DC surprise.....But this is looking much ado about nothing. (Thankfully I won't be online if I turn out to be wrong and power does go out )

[Ian]

I still don't exactly see why there's excitement for DC still rumbling around. 2inches over 12 hours? We've gotten 2 inches of rain in a brief 45min thunderstorm before! Same with gusts of wind circa 30mph. Maybe there's excitement for the east trend being wrong? All I'm clinging to is nowcasting springing a nice DC surprise.....But this is looking much ado about nothing. (Thankfully I won't be online if I turn out to be wrong and power does go out )

A widespread 2-4/3-6 event is not common. Yeah you can get dumped on by a tstorm but it is generally localized.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I still don't exactly see why there's excitement for DC still rumbling around. 2inches over 12 hours? We've gotten 2 inches of rain in a brief 45min thunderstorm before! Same with gusts of wind circa 30mph. Maybe there's excitement for the east trend being wrong? All I'm clinging to is nowcasting springing a nice DC surprise.....But this is looking much ado about nothing. (Thankfully I won't be online if I turn out to be wrong and power does go out )

Look at a satellite image of the massive hurricane due South of us. That's why people are excited. We should be on the outer edge of the more formidable bands. A small deviation from the forecast track/size of storm could lock us in to real tropical storm conditions for several hours. If you don't want to be excited feel free not to be but I think its a fairly reasonable reaction to a large hurricane being that close.

[vastateofmind]

Heavy rain in SE FfxCo, currently 82 degrees w/ 84% humidity, topped off with a rainbow to the east. Been waiting for this to drop for hours, the clouds were really starting to tower over the past hour.

[MDstorm]

First time outside since 8 am. It's actually quite tropical out.

MDstorm

[Kicking Up A Storm]

Look at a satellite image of the massive hurricane due South of us. That's why people are excited. We should be on the outer edge of the more formidable bands. A small deviation from the forecast track/size of storm could lock us in to real tropical storm conditions for several hours. If you don't want to be excited feel free not to be but I think its a fairly reasonable reaction to a large hurricane being that close.

Frankly, I'm just looking for some reassurance that the DC area is in the game for more than just a regular run of the mill rainstorm......

[ThePhotoGuy]

First time outside since 8 am. It's actually quite tropical out.

MDstorm

I was out photographing a water rescue a couple minutes ago, I suprised how warm/humid it was out.

[Ji]

the Jan 27 snowstorm will have much more of an impact

[yoda]

Upon closer examination of the 15z SREFs individual members...

8 of the 21 members predict 2" or less of rain for DCA

13 of the 21 members predict 2" or more of rain for DCA

Of the 13 members, 11 predict around 3" or more of rain for DCA

Of those 11, 6 (maybe 7) predict 4" or more of rain for DCA

Of those 6 (or 7), 4 precdict 6" or more for DCA

2 members predict 8" or more for DCA (ARW4 and RSM5 do... NMM4 is very close)

[The Dude]

I still don't exactly see why there's excitement for DC still rumbling around. 2inches over 12 hours? We've gotten 2 inches of rain in a brief 45min thunderstorm before! Same with gusts of wind circa 30mph. Maybe there's excitement for the east trend being wrong? All I'm clinging to is nowcasting springing a nice DC surprise.....But this is looking much ado about nothing. (Thankfully I won't be online if I turn out to be wrong and power does go out )

There's also a big difference between 5-10 minutes of winds occasionally gusting to 30 mph, and ~8 hours of gusty winds.

[Swiscaster]

I also noted how oppressive it is this evening. And that is odd there is rain in SE FFX CO. Barely a cloud in the sky here in western FFX!

[Sparky]

just don't get the negativity. Lots of gusty wind perhaps to 50mph over many hours with heavy rain squalls at times and prob. totalling several inches. What is to be negative about.

[ThePhotoGuy]

just don't get the negativity. Lots of gusty wind perhaps to 50mph over many hours with heavy rain squalls at times and prob. totalling several inches. What is to be negative about.

I don't understand it either. I know we won't get huge amounts of rain or hurricane force winds but we will feel the effects of a hurricane. It is sometime that you don't experience everyday.

[real]

just don't get the negativity. Lots of gusty wind perhaps to 50mph over many hours with heavy rain squalls at times and prob. totalling several inches. What is to be negative about.

Somehow they were expecting a hurricane, which has basically never happened, ever, except maybe once, over DC. Think your right. We don't know how bad, or not, it will be. Just have to see.

No one expected Isabel's surge, etc, etc. It's still possible it could be as windy here as it was that day the National Christmas Tree blew over, but with lots of rain instead of wild fires

[timstobrazil]

I also noted how oppressive it is this evening. And that is odd there is rain in SE FFX CO. Barely a cloud in the sky here in western FFX!

PRE...

[violinist]

Somehow they were expecting a hurricane, which has basically never happened, ever, except maybe once, over DC. Think your right. We don't know how bad, or not, it will be. Just have to see.

No one expected Isabel's surge, etc, etc. It's still possible it could be as windy here as it was that day the National Christmas Tree blew over, but with lots of rain instead of wild fires

1958 hurricane hazel, but most of you are too young to remember that!!

[jacindc]

And I think she looks a lot healthier than she did around noon. Definitely fighting the chunks of dry air, but much more numerous cold cloud tops. Not that I think she's going to ramp-up big time, but it doesn't look as dire as it maybe did earlier today.

[Fozz]

just don't get the negativity. Lots of gusty wind perhaps to 50mph over many hours with heavy rain squalls at times and prob. totalling several inches. What is to be negative about.

I don't understand it either. I know we won't get huge amounts of rain or hurricane force winds but we will feel the effects of a hurricane. It is sometime that you don't experience everyday.

Weenies will be weenies.

[yoda]

LWX raised the gusts a tad in their 730 zones

[astarck]

Did LWX up our winds? I see on wunderground the forecast for Arlington now calls for gusts up to 60mph.