ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Terrible run for the CP...Berks/Litchfield cty/N ORH hills/Monads get destroyed though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Mainly rain for most of us on the GFS flipping to snow. Berkshires gets slammed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS is also faster.... raining hard pretty much everywhere south of the Mass Pike by 6z Surface low tracks over the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Terrible run for the CP...Berks/Litchfield cty/N ORH hills/Monads get destroyed though. Even Litchfield Hills and N ORH hills have problems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Even Litchfield Hills and N ORH hills have problems 0C line never makes it past the pike around here (actually the -2C line doesn't either), so I would think places like Wachusett would be looking pretty good. edit: looks like it does at 69h briefly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BTV gets there 20 Tubes in the rowboat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I don't understand why the low is in the same place at 54 vs 12z at 60 yet the 0C line is like 200 miles further north... Luckily it's the 18z GFS and Euro disagrees... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 0C line never makes it past the pike around here (actually the -2C line doesn't either), so I would think places like Wachusett would be looking pretty good. This time of year you don't want to be straddling the 0c isotherm... I imagine BL warmth problems and probably even a sneaky mid level warm layer too with things closing off so far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sweet. Sarcasm? This is why I thought Noyes/Bouchard were kinda ballsy with their maps... and as I posted earlier, would not be surprised to see 0Z nam hug the coast Another prediction: > 100 readers on this thread tonight, remarkable for last week of March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BTV gets there 20 Tubes in the rowboat lol yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This would destroy us here with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well the risk has always been to the warmer side, given the s/w intensity and origin...hopefully it's too far west...but it's been a concern. We'll see what 00z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 500mb low tracks over Springfield. Epic fail for everyone in SNE outside of North Adams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Mudslides on Mt Tolland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The precip shield is really compact. Reminds me a bit of 1/12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The precip shield is really compact. Reminds me a bit of 1/12 Looks like feedback problems...>1.5" precip near Cape Cod in 6 hours? Robs the cold sector of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Mudslides on Mt Tolland? 1-2' of mud? building collapses due to mudslides? life threatening conditions due to flash flooding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The precip shield is really compact. Reminds me a bit of 1/12 Yeah it dumps on us for that 6hr period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Mudslides on Mt Tolland? And ray is looking for a high bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like feedback problems...>1.5" precip near Cape Cod in 6 hours? Robs the cold sector of the storm. It does have some weirdness going on at 60h out ahead of the main vortmax, so who knows if that is real or not. You can see it near NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So sorry...mentioned the words "snow day" to my daughter and this run took a dump...my fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'll rip wet snow, so I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Its the 18z.........throw it out! Blizzard for all. :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 http://cmos.metapress.com/content/e127349416635502/ yaakov / jconsor, is there a place we can find / could you post your data on the 72hr and 36-42hr model accuracy "hurdles" (that models face a "test" at 72 hours out as more data is sampled on west coast, and again at 36-42 hrs)? this was referenced somewhere earlier in this thread i anticipate it will be quite timely tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First call is 9-15" This is a solid forecast given recent model guidance. My gut says this is one for the coastal plain and adjacent hills. It has been cold up here (real cold for the end of March, haven't been above freezing for days), and that makes these model solutions plausible for a late season snowstorm further south and east than climo would dictate. The fact that this looks to occur over a large population of people, who haven't seen a serious snowfall in two months, means it should be relatively high impact, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It does have some weirdness going on at 60h out ahead of the main vortmax, so who knows if that is real or not. You can see it near NYC. The thing that concerns me is how much warmer it starts. Where did all that extra warmth come from before the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 For the model historians... anyone remember the model dance prior to 4/1/97? Did any models show inland track / coastal huggers? Did models dance around BM? Were most models whiffers? I seem to remember most models showing an out to sea track that trended closer to coast as time approached, with not much support for a coastal hugger... but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This would destroy us here with this track. Sizeable bump in qpf for sure. I wonder how much is in the form of NCP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah it dumps on us for that 6hr period. That is just a massive omega bomb for a while there...I could go about 1 tick cooler to feel better, but man, that is a ton of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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