Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12z runs show a coastal bomb. Models are coming into better agreement on a system that will likely effect the east coast Friday into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Didn't hear any additional comment after I mentioned it but then I think there was a flurry of posts that burried it... The GGEM has another system of similar potency 4 days later on into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Foothills and coastal plain look to get buried... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Foothills and coastal plain look to get buried... Sunbathers and gardeners cryin' for their mommas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Didn't hear any additional comment after I mentioned it but then I think there was a flurry of posts that burried it... The GGEM has another system of similar potency 4 days later on into next week. GFS has it as a SWFE up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Copied from the TT2 thread, where no one would've seen it.... [/url] Dryslot, on 29 March 2011 - 02:31 PM, said: Thats right, The foothills and mountains should be over the 100" mark, Its us flatlanders that are close...... Yeah, foothills except for the Route 2 corridor Skowhegan to Rumford, where we've been repeatedly fringed north and south, and remain in the 80s. Eustis got 17" in the 3/7 event that produced my 2" armorplate. (And yes, Eustis is snowy. I'm sad that I've been unable to find their records - if they exist - for the storm of 2/24-27/69. Long Falls Dam, 15 nmiles to the east and 200' lower, averages 10% less snow than Eustis, and they piled up 56" in that event.) The best opening day scenario, IMO, was the Yankees' (scheduled) home opener on 4/6/82. Gametime conditions: 25F, +SN, 6" new. They would get 9.6" and low 20s by storm's end. That combination of snow and cold remains unique among NYC's April records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Didn't hear any additional comment after I mentioned it but then I think there was a flurry of posts that burried it... The GGEM has another system of similar potency 4 days later on into next week. GFS has a snow thumper as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles almost directly over the BM...potent too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It actually looks like the Euro ensembles were run from Ray's computer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles look like they go very close or a few miles se of the BM, but they aren't nearly as intense as the op run. They are closer to SNE as compared to 00z, but also faster. I figured they would come nw, given what the op run did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It actually looks like the Euro ensembles were run from Ray's computer LOL, I was just thinking that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles look like they go very close or a few miles se of the BM, but they aren't nearly as intense as the op run. They are closer to SNE as compared to 00z, but also faster. I figured they would come nw, given what the op run did. They still go sub-990 as they cross the BM...that's pretty intense for an ensemble mean. Not 982 like the op run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Didn't hear any additional comment after I mentioned it but then I think there was a flurry of posts that burried it... The GGEM has another system of similar potency 4 days later on into next week. GGEM Tues-Wed April 5-6 GFS similar timeframe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The op run is defintely on the western edge of the members based on 850 spaghetti, but the op run COULD have the right idea with dynamics allowing it to rapidly deepen and come close to the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 They still go sub-990 as they cross the BM...that's pretty intense for an ensemble mean. Not 982 like the op run though. I saw it out to 72 hrs when I commented. That's actually a nice drop in pressure from 72hr to 84hr, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles almost directly over the BM...potent too. Hmmm... there must be some members in there that are pretty far east. Given where the OP is, I thought there'd be more members heading westward... guess there's still plenty of them that indicate this as a non-event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles almost directly over the BM...potent too. It actually looks like the Euro ensembles were run from Ray's computer Euro ensembles look like they go very close or a few miles se of the BM, but they aren't nearly as intense as the op run. They are closer to SNE as compared to 00z, but also faster. I figured they would come nw, given what the op run did. Gotta love the clustering of the solution to near the BM even at this time frame. First nor'easter threat in over a month, the monotony of march would be worth it if this crushes us on the CP with all caveats about climo and april being to warm. If the middle of the curve is a BM track, we have a good shot ~60% imo of seeing snow that accums even on the CP and a much great shot in ORH or elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sunbathers, golfers and gardeners cryin' for their mommas. Amended Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 sref's had a huge shift for the better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Congrats Ray on the 15z ETA solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hmmm... there must be some members in there that are pretty far east. Given where the OP is, I thought there'd be more members heading westward... guess there's still plenty of them that indicate this as a non-event. OP run is definitely a western outlier among the ensemble members...but it doesn't mean its wrong either. Though with other guidance a bit east, I'd probably lean a bit closer to the ensemble mean, but still keep in mind that the higher res OP run could be seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 WOW - BOX going with mostly snow p-type for MBY in the city! Thursday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Discussion: FRI INTO SAT...WITH MODELS GENERALLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT FOR THE TIMING AND NATURE OF A SHORTWAVE APPROACHING AND DEEPENING FROM THE OH VALLEY...HAVE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF LONG RANGE GUIDANCE FOR FCST. BOTH SUGGEST STRONG CYCLOGENESIS AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE COAST AND BEGINS TO AFFECT A LLVL COASTAL FRONT. THE UPPER LVL JETASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT STRENGTHENS SOMEWHAT IN RESPONSE TO SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS FROM UPSTREAM...ENHANCING LLVL BAROCLINICITY AND ASSISTING IN LLVL HEIGHT FALLS. THE TROF ALOFT TAKES ON A VERY NEGATIVE TILT AND BEGINS TO DEEPEN TO A CUTOFF OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL AID IN SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC HEIGHT FALLS THANKS TO THE FORMATION OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROF AND THE UPPER JET INCREASING AND SLIDING SUCH THAT THE LEFT EXIT REGION IS LOCATED ON TOP OF THE SFC LOW. DUE TO MODEL AGREEMENT IN THIS STRONG SYNOPTICALLY FORCED LIFTING...EXPECT DYNAMIC COOLING TO BE SIGNIFICANT EVEN THOUGH THE LOW PASSES W OF THE BENCHMARK INTO FRIDAY...YIELDING LLVL TEMPS COOL ENOUGH FOR SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THEFA. LIKED THE MIDNIGHT CREWS ASSESSMENT OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS SO WILLBREAK IT DOWN AGAIN HERE...HOWEVER NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE IS STILL GENERALLY LOW IN TIMING AND FINAL OUTCOME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM is still a piece of garbage... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Euro ensembles look like they go very close or a few miles se of the BM, but they aren't nearly as intense as the op run. They are closer to SNE as compared to 00z, but also faster. I figured they would come nw, given what the op run did. This amplifying progressive flow is the key. I still think a more east phasing is in the cards (as of now); in spite of a seeming consensus of the 12z suites (NAM aside). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM is still a piece of garbage... To early to tell with what you have here. These panels are fairly similar to the Global guidance at similar hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Didn't hear any additional comment after I mentioned it but then I think there was a flurry of posts that burried it... The GGEM has another system of similar potency 4 days later on into next week. Maybe April snow on snow events for CNE and NNE... Let's get through tomorrows model runs first though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This amplifying progressive flow is the key. I still think a more east phasing is in the cards (as of now); in spite of a seeming consensus of the 12z suites (NAM aside). You probably would have to edge a little east of the euro op, but I would defintely keep that solution in mind. It's hard not to get excited when you see what models are spitting out. The dynamics in this are pretty intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 awesome afd out of box SNOWFALL... WITH SIGNIFICANT DYNAMIC COOLING POTENTIAL GIVEN THE BLEND USED...ONLY EXACT TRACK WILL DETERMINE WHERE RAIN/SNOW LINE ULTIMATELY LIES. GUIDANCE BRINGS THE LOW JUST W OF THE BENCHMARK WITH TROWAL FORMATION LIKELY ADVECTING WARM AIR IN ADVANCE OF THE DEEPENING SFC LOW. EXPECT THAT THE S COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WILL SEE A BRIEF CHANGE OVER INTO THE MORNING FRI BEFORE RETURNING TO ALL SNOW AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND SHIFTS E. GIVEN THE TROWAL SETUP EXPECT THAT PRECIP WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS ENTIRE FA DURING THE DAY FRI...FROM ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW...THEN DEFORMATION WRAP AROUND AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE E. MOISTURE WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE AS THE WARM CONVEYOR IS PULLING MARITIME AIR INTO THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE THE DECIDING FACTOR. DO NOT EXPECT RATIOS TO BE HIGH TOWARDS THE SE...WHERE WARM AIR WILL YIELD A MORE HEAVY WET SNOW. HIGHER TOTALS WILL GENERALLY BE W OF ORH...WHERE RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER. GIVEN ALL OF THESE FACTORS...ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER SE MASS AND RI...WITH WARNING LEVEL SNOW POSSIBLE OVER THE INTERIOR BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 WOW - BOX going with mostly snow p-type for MBY in the city! Thursday Night: A chance of rain before midnight, then a chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind between 11 and 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Friday: Snow likely. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 35. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly before 9pm. Cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Discussion: Still far out, I know, but sounds like they are confident that dynamic cooling as currently depicted would be sufficient to overcome daytime sun angle / surface temps in Boston metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 14 years in the making folks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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