40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think a hair inside the BM is the way to go; largest April event since 1997 en route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 To early to tell with what you have here. These panels are fairly similar to the Global guidance at similar hours. Yep, my bad... it would be more like hour 60 or so. My assumption that the NAM is still garbage though probably has a good chance of verifying even if for the wrong reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Foothills and coastal plain look to get buried... Jeff, I read the afternoon AFD and it said the same. Still a ways out, but keeping fingers crossed for a grand finale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think a hair inside the BM is the way to go; larges April event since 1997 en route. You got your vomit bag ready ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The NAM probably won't do much...the major difference is the amplitude of the lead OV shortwave...significantly more amplified on the NAM leading to more destructive interference with the digging shortwave. There is more backside energy in the trough with this run...a more amplified western ridge...but the OV shortwave will kill it. That shortwave over Missouri is already noticeably slower (a couple hundred miles) on the 18z NAM at 12 hours compared to the 18 hour forecast of the 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Jeff, I read the afternoon AFD and it said the same. Still a ways out, but keeping fingers crossed for a grand finale. Yeah John, Could be the last but the models hint at something for early next week as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yep, my bad... it would be more like hour 60 or so. My assumption that the NAM is still garbage though probably has a good chance of verifying even if for the wrong reason Yeah, I'm not sure why the NAM is having issues with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Does this last into Saturday or is over Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You got your vomit bag ready ?? Won't need it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 From the Box Zone forecasts. .THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .FRIDAY...SNOW LIKELY. BRISK AND MUCH COLDER. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE AROUND 30. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .FRIDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 20S. I would think that dp's would be well below that? That would mean snow for most of the Ct Valley even lower elevations - at least from Springfield N & W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You got your vomit bag ready ?? why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM tries to get it going overnight Thursday night at the last second...but not nearly to the extent of the global models. Definitely trending toward them though. As Nick mentioned, the leading s/w is the issue but I'll bet that keeps trending a bit more flattened out as the energy behind it becomes the focus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah John, Could be the last but the models hint at something for early next week as well.. Fine with me. Maybe hit the golden 100. Thanks with the heads up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jt5019 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON A CONSENSUS...DEVELOPING DEEP LOW PRES SOMEWHERE S OF LI THU NIGHT AND TRACKING THE FEATURE NEWD OVER THE ATLANTIC ON FRI. ALPS SHOWS A DISTINCT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLES AND THE SREF ENSEMBLES. GFS ENSEMBLES PROG A MORE MERIDIONAL SOLN...WHILE THE SREF IS FLATTER. THE GFS ENSEMBLE IS SUPPORTED BY THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF...GEM AND UKMET. THE FCST IS THEREFORE BASED ON A DEEP LOW IMPACTING THE CWA THU NIGHT AND FRI. FROM THERE...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE EXACT TRACK. RELATIVE TO MONTAUK AT 12Z FRI...SOLNS RANGE FROM ABOUT 100 MILES S PER THE 12Z ECMWF TO 270 MILES SSE PER THE GEM. THE GFS IS 135 SE. THE CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WILL BE MAINLY A RAIN STORM ACROSS THE CWA...WITH THE ERN TRACKS A SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENT. FOR NOW...FCST INDICATES MAINLY RASN DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS NWRN ZONES. IN ADDITION TO THE PCPN...WIND WILL BE A SERIOUS ISSUE IF THE STORM EVOLVES AS PROGGED. BL WINDS CRANK UP TO ABOUT 50KT. THIS WOULD RESULT IN 60 MPH NE WIND GUSTS AHEAD OF THE LOW...BACKING TO THE NNW AS THE LOW PASSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM verbatim is a Phil Special on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Amended yep, this is just fooking awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Holy did Bruchard go all out with his forecast!! Said most likely scenario would be a foot of snow in Boston N + W. He said it would be nothing like the '97 storm but just an "average 12" snow" except it will happen in April. It's like Kevin took control. Very ballsy for a 2.5 day forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The NAM probably won't do much...the major difference is the amplitude of the lead OV shortwave...significantly more amplified on the NAM leading to more destructive interference with the digging shortwave. There is more backside energy in the trough with this run...a more amplified western ridge...but the OV shortwave will kill it. That shortwave over Missouri is already noticeably slower (a couple hundred miles) on the 18z NAM at 12 hours compared to the 18 hour forecast of the 12z GFS. Yeah, if you look at the initialization, the S/W it is keying on as you say is squarely on-board out west, but there is a huge wind max hot on its heels not in the denser sounding grid. I have a hunch that when that fire hose punches in the NAM will turn-coat that lead idea in a heart beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Holy did Bruchard go all out with his forecast!! Said most likely scenario would be a foot of snow in Boston N + W. He said it would be nothing like the '97 storm but just an "average 12" snow" except it will happen in April. It's like Kevin took control. Very ballsy foolish for a 2.5 day forecast. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Man, BTV is jumping head first into this. Not sure I've seen too much support for a widespread heavy snowfall over this forecast area... the low has to track over some portion of land in SNE (at least Cape Cod) for a widespread heavy snow up here. A track near the Benchmark won't cut it. So even with all the ensembles saying this is an eastern New England deal, BTV still calling for plowable snowfall in the Champlain Valley, and a maple mauler over the rest of Vermont. My forecast has 90% chances for snow and even BOX is holding at 70% chances, lol. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT ON FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL...EASTERN...AND NORTHERN VERMONT. A PLOWABLE SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACK MOUNTAINS...AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS HEAVY WET SNOW WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES...WHICH MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE EXACT TRACK AND PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...ALONG WITH HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE WITH TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER STATEMENTS ON THIS POTENTIAL WINTER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 NAM verbatim is a Phil Special on the Cape. It has it starting pretty early too. Kevin gets his 10pm start time. Trend is our friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Does this last into Saturday or is over Friday? Looks like it winds down by Friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 watch tnite's 0Z NAM finally latch onto the 2nd shortwave like the globals, amplify it and track it west of consensus same scenario happened sometime jan/feb, don't remember which storm... NAM lagged with an ots solution and then abruptly brought a monster NW of the GFS/EC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like it winds down by Friday evening. I think the 12z GFS showed snow lingering in SNE through 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First call is 9-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First call is 9-15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 First call is 9-15" Would that put this winter at # 2 for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Would that put this winter at # 2 for you? #3 quantiatively, but #1 in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 #3 quantiatively, but #1 in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Does this last into Saturday or is over Friday? Bump for mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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