ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Sounds like a blast Whole family going? That's a negative. Serious adventuring not suitable for 5 year olds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS BUFKIT is fine for ORH...blitzes them with 2.08" QPF as all snow...most of which falls with temps near freezing. Even BED gets blitzed for awhile before the change over...then ends as light to moderate snow for some hours. Yeah I figured I was probably okay on the 18z run but walking a very thin line. Its probably too amped up of a solution anyway if I had to guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Time to shovel snow. For you perhaps, but we don't shovel grass down here, which is about the only place snow will stick this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I could see this being like 1997 in terms of it starting as a 31F paste and then the hills gradually cool into the upper 20s and it turns more powdery. The first foot or so was wet in 1997 and then the next 20" were actually a lot more powdery. I don't mind that because the trees are still caked from the snow early in the storm. Yeah that's kind of what i was afraid of...I'd prefer it all to be a 31-32 pasting..plus it would last maybe an extra day on the ground..If it turns powdery..it'll go poof in like 8 hours on Saturday Plus I want considerable tree damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I could see this being like 1997 in terms of it starting as a 31F paste and then the hills gradually cool into the upper 20s and it turns more powdery. The first foot or so was wet in 1997 and then the next 20" were actually a lot more powdery. I don't mind that because the trees are still caked from the snow early in the storm. Am I wrong to sense that you are actually keen on this threat. Seems like it's getting tough for you to remain stoic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Am I wrong to sense that you are actually keen on this threat. Seems like it's getting tough for you to remain stoic. Your senses do not betray you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 For you perhaps, but we don't shovel grass down here, which is about the only place snow will stick this time of year. LOL Grass?. It'll stick if it comes down at 2-3" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah that's kind of what i was afraid of...I'd prefer it all to be a 31-32 pasting..plus it would last maybe an extra day on the ground..If it turns powdery..it'll go poof in like 8 hours on Saturday Plus I want considerable tree damage Well we shall see. If its closer to the coast, then we'll probably keep the snow mostly wet...or perhaps even mix in some wet precip like rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I could see this being like 1997 in terms of it starting as a 31F paste and then the hills gradually cool into the upper 20s and it turns more powdery. The first foot or so was wet in 1997 and then the next 20" were actually a lot more powdery. I don't mind that because the trees are still caked from the snow early in the storm. Hey Will, do you think we could exceed 4/97 down here where we only got like 2-3" lol? I remember areas south of us did much better for some reason.... and our forecast was for 8-12 ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Your senses do not betray you. It's really fun when he loses that starched Meteorologist veneer and blossoms into a fully fledged weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah that's kind of what i was afraid of...I'd prefer it all to be a 31-32 pasting..plus it would last maybe an extra day on the ground..If it turns powdery..it'll go poof in like 8 hours on Saturday Plus I want considerable tree damage I agree with this. Generally I'm a powder guy, but I feel like in April cement is the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yeah I figured I was probably okay on the 18z run but walking a very thin line. Its probably too amped up of a solution anyway if I had to guess right now. it has impressive WCB dynamics...-45 ubar/sec through the snowcrystal growth layer before it dryslots as the 700mb passes too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I remember my mom's house had some white pines snapped from that one... I hope this is a 31-32 paster and not a 27-28 degree powder bomb I would take the latter but either one is fine by me. Better than rain and 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Fool me twice...I doubt the ensembles are correct. Theyve burned se mass one too many times this season.giving the area false hope..I can easily picture a cape cod / ack storm track. What I would give though to lock in the euro ensembles.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 it has impressive WCB dynamics...-45 ubar/sec through the snowcrystal growth layer before it dryslots as the 700mb passes too far west. It (that 18z solution) reminds me of part two in the Dec '96 Cantore snow bomb...the 700mb low tracked over like W MA or S VT in that one but we got this monster WCB thump of heavy wet snow and picked up 16" in about 8-9 hours, then dryslotted and the storm was over. It was just this train of 30-35 dbz echoes streaming into SNE from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 How much you want to bet the 00z nam goes batsh*t crazy and is all amped up and gives 128 corridor 2.5" qpf (only to back off again later). yep... watch tnite's 0Z NAM finally latch onto the 2nd shortwave like the globals, amplify it and track it west of consensus same scenario happened sometime jan/feb, don't remember which storm... NAM lagged with an ots solution and then abruptly brought a monster NW of the GFS/EC afraid of this... won't be a trend, will be an abrupt and dramatic jump, as has happened earlier this winter when the NAM finally catches on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 18z GFS did trend stronger with the OV shortwave which allowed the heights to rise slightly in SNE...which hurt antecedent conditions and causes the low to track closer in. The 18z NAM also trended stronger with the OV shortwave. We will have to see if that is caused by real data when 00z rolls in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 bump this is interesting and relevant for tonight if any mets with good memory can answer... For the model historians... anyone remember the model dance prior to 4/1/97?Did any models show inland track / coastal huggers? Did models dance around BM? Were most models whiffers? I seem to remember most models showing an out to sea track that trended closer to coast as time approached, with not much support for a coastal hugger... but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 bump this is interesting and relevant for tonight if any mets with good memory can answer... I was just beginning to follow models back then so I do not remember a lot of stuff leading up to the event. I do know that TV forecasts in the 2 days prior were generally hitting a pretty good snow event for the interior and not so much the coast...they began to gradually introduce more snow for the coast as we got to about 24h before and mentioned it would change to snow and probably accumulate a decent amount. Then they really started hammering it the night before. I remember most forecasts stayed pretty conservative until that Sunday night...and even then when they started hitting it harder, it was obviously not hard enough...lol. Nobody saw 2-3 feet coming I don't think until the storm was already well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I had a foot in Guilford. Places like Hartland and North Granby had 24" though. I had to pick my friend up in N granby this weekend, amazing up there. I can see how they jackpot often with snow. About 1000' of elevation, pretty far N, elevated above most of the other land. His house could see into Springfield, Holyoke up toward Mt. Tom. It was pretty amazing, I never knew it was like that up there to that extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Snowouts on Friday for MLB? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I was just beginning to follow models back then so I do not remember a lot of stuff leading up to the event. I do know that TV forecasts in the 2 days prior were generally hitting a pretty good snow event for the interior and not so much the coast...they began to gradually introduce more snow for the coast as we got to about 24h before and mentioned it would change to snow and probably accumulate a decent amount. Then they really started hammering it the night before. I remember most forecasts stayed pretty conservative until that Sunday night...and even then when they started hitting it harder, it was obviously not hard enough...lol. Nobody saw 2-3 feet coming I don't think until the storm was already well underway. appreciate it, Will... i figured if anyone could answer, you could. i too was not as versed with models back then, mostly followed afd's. that's very helpful... so in 1997 too models probably showed some coastal hugger tracks before shifting east in the 24 hours before. if anyone knows more details, chime in. thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I didn't want to waste a post on this but it might be worth it for people to kill like 20-30 minutes before the models tonight... Matt Noyes has a pretty good video discussion on his website that was just recorded from 640-7 http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/ Just scroll down to his tech discussion on Tuesday March 29. Also he has precip maps for Euro on there for us amateurs that dont pay for it. Also he says with no strong high its going to be very hard for towns to hold on to snow... talks about rain/snow line up to central NH maybe He talks about initialization of all of the models and the reasons why they are doing what they are doing.... good watch and learn... Enjoy the 00z models and pray for no surprises. Golf season can wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 appreciate it, Will... i figured if anyone could answer, you could. i too was not as versed with models back then, mostly followed afd's. that's very helpful... so in 1997 too models probably showed some coastal hugger tracks before shifting east in the 24 hours before. if anyone knows more details, chime in. thanks! Models have changed a ton and improved significantly since 1997 so I'm not even sure the biases would be the same, either way. We've actually had two threats this year that trended southeast in the last 48 hours. The early February storm that hit NZucker hard and that system last week. It's not always a forgone conclusion that the models will trend northwest in the last 48 or 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nam is huge tonight. King is paramount, but Nam is big tonight......... I was just looking at the gfs ens mean now that the kids are almost in bed.................and wow, not even close to the op, weak and way east, something has to give, I dont think I have ever seen such differences between ens means and op runs within 48 hours of an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I didn't want to waste a post on this but it might be worth it for people to kill like 20-30 minutes before the models tonight... Matt Noyes has a pretty good video discussion on his website that was just recorded from 640-7 http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/ Just scroll down to his tech discussion on Tuesday March 29 He talks about initialization of all of the models and the reasons why they are doing what they are doing.... good watch and learn... Enjoy the 00z models and pray for no surprises. Golf season can wait! It's been even more interesting to look for those same nuggets from tv weather blogs and afd's way out west. Hammers home the fact that the models are off to a bad start already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Models have changed a ton and improved significantly since 1997 so I'm not even sure the biases would be the same, either way. We've actually had two threats this year that trended southeast in the last 48 hours. The early February storm that hit NZucker hard and that system last week. It's not always a forgone conclusion that the models will trend northwest in the last 48 or 72 hours. 1/27 also trended SE...we still got nailed in the end, but originally it was showing huge snows well into CNE and even NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I didn't want to waste a post on this but it might be worth it for people to kill like 20-30 minutes before the models tonight... Matt Noyes has a pretty good video discussion on his website that was just recorded from 640-7 http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/ Just scroll down to his tech discussion on Tuesday March 29. Also he has precip maps for Euro on there for us amateurs that dont pay for it. Also he says with no strong high its going to be very hard for towns to hold on to snow... talks about rain/snow line up to central NH maybe He talks about initialization of all of the models and the reasons why they are doing what they are doing.... good watch and learn... Enjoy the 00z models and pray for no surprises. Golf season can wait! Are you still on double secret probation? 5 posts a day? Geez powers that be, have a heart. It's been even more interesting to look for those same nuggets from tv weather blogs and afd's way out west. Hammers home the fact that the models are off to a bad start already. LOL, Scott, sometimes the models actually do a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of latitudinal component, if at all, develops on that coastal front if this comes to pass. I would assume my job in Newburyport will probably do better than my place in Brookline but both are still on the CP. A guy at work told me he had 5" at his house in Amesbury but nothing at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx4cast Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 appreciate it, Will... i figured if anyone could answer, you could. i too was not as versed with models back then, mostly followed afd's. that's very helpful... so in 1997 too models probably showed some coastal hugger tracks before shifting east in the 24 hours before. if anyone knows more details, chime in. thanks! 3/31-4/1 1997 Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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