TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well.... Here's my prelim thoughts..... Comments/critiques/compliments welcome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well.... Here's my prelim thoughts..... Comments/critiques/compliments welcome! Excellent map imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 [/b] Hi Mitch, We had some nice flurry action with big dandelion fluff type flakes throughout the day @ 2k. Stayed below freezing as well. What's your take on the snow outlook here? Ice fishing continues on quite a few ponds/lakes here. Starts to get sketchy now as springs can scour the ice out from underneath with no way of knowing when viewed from above. Some meathead usually puts his truck through the ice in March. Last year I think it was on Goose pond. Yeah, driving a truck on the ice is never a good idea once we've had several consecutive days and nights > 32. As you know, the snow will be highly dependent on the track. Too far east, and the best QPF misses us by a short distance (a la 1/27); too far west, and we get rain (a la 3/6-7). 1/27 was a painful miss here in Lenox with 2.5" while places 50-60 miles S and E were ripping 2-3" per hour with TSSN. Given the number of short waves in the pattern, my bigger anxiety is for this thing to go too far SE rather than NW due to too much destructive wave interference. 18Z GFS is very similar to 1/12, which puts us right in the deform and meso banding zone if it were to verify verbatim. The models have had a tendency to trend more to the SE at the last minute lately, so we'll see. 00Z should shed some more light on this scenario. I also like the chances of a SWFE in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well.... Here's my prelim thoughts..... Comments/critiques/compliments welcome! Well done ladd, Looks good up here, You may be a little light for Northern Maine though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It takes a very "special" storm to produce prolific snows on th CP this time of year outside of 97'. If the Euro and its ens are correct, no matter how good it looks from Boston south on the CP I just dont see big time accumulations. BDR 0 DXR 2 BDL 3 TOLL 2 ORH 5 KGAY 3.5 BOS 1 PVD 0 PETE 14 Greens 1-2 ft DOM 5 I think the Berks greens and to some extent whites get absolutely crushed, Maine gets blasted as H5 closes off perfectly for them. Huge accumulations in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Lots of runs left. My wife is pissed, but what ya gonna do! Also, Wachusett closes at 4PM Sunday so to ski that day I have to buy a $10 pass. Scrooges! This will be a late night for many. Tips data should start coming in soon? They all thought they had us back....winter over......normal hubby...but as I said....one more dance. Ole Man Winter says... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 500mb low tracks over Springfield. Epic fail for everyone in SNE outside of North Adams. I disagree with this assessment. The lower partial thickness are coiled up in circulation centers that keep it cold enough for snow - West of 495 and down to about HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just luv daylight savings time for model watching....... It makes the decision as to whether to wait up for the gfs really easy: nope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It makes the decision as to whether to wait up for the gfs really easy: nope! True. Full schedule tomorrow and if you were my patient...you'd probably not want to know I weenied out and was on 3 hours sleep already old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well.... Here's my prelim thoughts..... Comments/critiques/compliments welcome! You are my new favorite weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It makes the decision as to whether to wait up for the gfs really easy: nope! Yeah, Don't really care about that one , But it makes staying for the Euro (1:45 am) impossible unless i want to feel like crap the next day at work.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hey I'm stealing someones internet here at my Aunt's development in Ocala. Pete it's looking better for GC I take it..... Nasty here ...muggy... makes me feel sleepy all the time. I'll be back northwest of DC by Friday afternoon so maybe catch the tail end there. Hi Rick, I'm so busy right now I'm just checking in around model runs. Looks like a decent thump here. Glad to have the elevation at this time of year. Anytime of year really. This could be quite a finale except I don't think it will be the last snow here. Muggy, ugh, I don't want to even think about it. How do people stand living in heat and humidity 365 days a year. If the heavy snowfall comes to pass it will vault this Winter solidly into the epic category. Of course, I'm sticking with Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 not sure if this has been done, but can someone pick apart the GEFS mean... it looks to basically merge the two systems (THU's for the mid-atl and FRI) and just hangs back a light lobe of precip....maybe that's just the averaging of the individual ensembles, but that would suggest some of those members must be WAY OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Preliminary thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hi Rick, I'm so busy right now I'm just checking in around model runs. Looks like a decent thump here. Glad to have the elevation at this time of year. Anytime of year really. This could be quite a finale except I don't think it will be the last snow here. Muggy, ugh, I don't want to even think about it. How do people stand living in heat and humidity 365 days a year. If the heavy snowfall comes to pass it will vault this Winter solidly into the epic category. Of course, I'm sticking with Big Winter incoming. Big Big Winter. Supposedly some parts of Florida can be comfortable at night in January. Maybe even throw on a pair of slacks I hope NNE gets some good snow. April vacation ski trip up North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was at about this point last threat when you ripped me about my comment suggesting a south trend. In fairness you were totally wrong, the storm mostly whiffed. What?!! Me?!! You must have me confused with some other poster. I got snow from it.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Preliminary thoughts Looks good Sam.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well done ladd, Looks good up here, You may be a little light for Northern Maine though... No love for the Tooter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No love for the Tooter. Low tracks thru the Bay of Fundy, Need more luv in vim toot land... I am going prelim 10-14" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 well i only have .6 inches for the whole month here so i am looking for a few more inches in the last inning... i do not know if the lower valley is going to have an epic snowfall late thurs and fri but I do think that even climo would say that it is about time for at least a few inches of paste..perhaps as much as a half foot or a bit more even... for feet of that down here....well the stars will all have to really align perfectly lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah, driving a truck on the ice is never a good idea once we've had several consecutive days and nights > 32. As you know, the snow will be highly dependent on the track. Too far east, and the best QPF misses us by a short distance (a la 1/27); too far west, and we get rain (a la 3/6-7). 1/27 was a painful miss here in Lenox with 2.5" while places 50-60 miles S and E were ripping 2-3" per hour with TSSN. Given the number of short waves in the pattern, my bigger anxiety is for this thing to go too far SE rather than NW due to too much destructive wave interference. 18Z GFS is very similar to 1/12, which puts us right in the deform and meso banding zone if it were to verify verbatim. The models have had a tendency to trend more to the SE at the last minute lately, so we'll see. 00Z should shed some more light on this scenario. I also like the chances of a SWFE in about a week. Yeah, I don't think this will be the last one for us. I have felt April would be a cruel month for the Warministas for a while. It's been a while since we had a decent snowy April. This could be the one. I'm not going to let Messenger will this one OTS either. The force is with me.lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The forecast for here is for lower humidity after this storm passes the east coast... but they are talking like mid 80s with dp's in the 50s.. Not our idea of refreshing... I may be driving through some severe stuff as I make my way north and this complex system evolves in the NE... Paul would be envious I guess. Supposedly some parts of Florida can be comfortable at night in January. Maybe even throw on a pair of slacks I hope NNE gets some good snow. April vacation ski trip up North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The forecast for here is for lower humidity after this storm passes the east coast... but they are talking like mid 80s with dp's in the 50s.. Not our idea of refreshing... I may be driving through some severe stuff as I make my way north and this complex system evolves in the NE... Paul would be envious I guess. Hey! Where is BIrving? Uninformed kooks my azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah, I don't think this will be the last one for us. I have felt April would be a cruel month for the Warministas for a while. It's been a while since we had a decent snowy April. This could be the one. I'm not going to let Messenger will this one OTS either. The force is with me.lol Tip, BOX, Noyes all think next week could bring more fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The forecast for here is for lower humidity after this storm passes the east coast... but they are talking like mid 80s with dp's in the 50s.. Not our idea of refreshing... I may be driving through some severe stuff as I make my way north and this complex system evolves in the NE... Paul would be envious I guess. Possible thunder here next week? I've got a FL vacation booked for Aug 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hey! Where is BIrving? Uninformed kooks my azz. :whistle: and a for him AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks for the compliments guys... I do think I might be light for northern maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What?!! Me?!! You must have me confused with some other poster. I got snow from it.lol Well you were wrong, a south trend did occur and most of us missed out on meaningful snow outside of the massachusetts alps. At least be intellectually honest you weren't talking about yby at the time, we were talking about an overall south trend in the storm which you outright mocked. Better luck this time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Besides the gfs being warmer man the 18z gfs got the precip in here quick. It was starting by like 3z here but it looked like but it hung on past 18z. While that would be good for accumulations, in a way I'd rather it wait a little longer to start so I can be awake for most of the storm. That said, it gave me like 12-14" of snow, so I'd lock it now if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Tip, BOX, Noyes all think next week could bring more fun... Heh, heh , heh. AIT. I was just talking to my friend in AK and he was bemoaning the fact that Alyeska was getting these " pathetic little 12" snowfalls".lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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