Threat Thread

[CoastalWx]

This op run wants to keep the block around..more or less right through the period.

[Bostonseminole]

that'll be the one. it's 12/13 now. we know 12/1 ain't happenin'...forget 12/5. forget 12/9. let's go to 12/13

edit: GFS does look nice though in the long range.

groundhog day continues.. 180+

[weathafella]

Very cold run of GFS and sustained cold all the way out.

[CoastalWx]

One thing I've noticed is that the Euro ensembles have backed off on that potential moderation/warmup period after about 12/12. Might be tied to how blocked up the pattern is after this 12/6 threat...even more than it already is.

It's also slow to relinquish the block towards mid month as well. Certainly not a change to raging +.

[weatherwiz]

Yeah it doesn't appear the first event is going to be a big event..but somehow we'll get a couple inches at least out of this deal..that upper low might actually help us . I can think of several times where we've had some "surprise" snow from these upper lows in the past

Who wouldn't love cold, windy cloudy days with snow in the air of various intensities? That's how winter should be

When I went to Montreal in 7th grade with my French class that's how the weather was the entire time we were there...was from Thursday-Sunday I think. It was basically cold and windy with snow showers basically on and off all day long and sometimes they would come down pretty heavy...it was pretty awesome.

[Ginx snewx]

One thing I've noticed is that the Euro ensembles have backed off on that potential moderation/warmup period after about 12/12. Might be tied to how blocked up the pattern is after this 12/6 threat...even more than it already is.

As we thought, you got to give the AO negative state lots of respect, even when it rises after the precipitous drop there is a bounce back drop. All hail the AO

[MaineJayhawk]

If anyone bitches about that for a start to winter they need to move to the Rockies. Nothing wrong with getting our feet wet so to speak with a cold ULL parked overhead, especially this early in the game, lots of instability. just saying, I will take it.

I'll be happy if I get to use the Mountain Mover. A few inches would do the trick.

[Damage In Tolland]

Violently agree, I am sure Ray will post how it's a waste and we should start our own thread on ULL magic dust snow.

When I went to Montreal in 7th grade with my French class that's how the weather was the entire time we were there...was from Thursday-Sunday I think. It was basically cold and windy with snow showers basically on and off all day long and sometimes they would come down pretty heavy...it was pretty awesome.

Ryan is the only one who wouldn't want that. i guess he'd prefer rain and 50's like tomorrow

[Tropopause_Fold]

This op run wants to keep the block around..more or less right through the period.

it's crazy. it's like we picked up right where we left off last winter/spring. even a slight maritime intrusion into parts of far NE canada at times from the north atlantic.

[CoastalWx]

As we thought, you got to give the AO negative state lots of respect, even when it rises after the precipitous drop there is a bounce back drop. All hail the AO

I'd like to weaken it a little and flush everything out with a nice arctic atmosphere. At the same time however, it can be your friend.

[CoastalWx]

it's crazy. it's like we picked up right where we left off last winter/spring. even a slight maritime intrusion into parts of far NE canada at times from the north atlantic.

The ensembles do weaken it, but the gfs ensemble bring it right back, and the euro ensembles hint at it building back towards the end of the run.

[moneypitmike]

I don't know exactly how this is gonna play out come go time..but there is going to be a snow event in SNE sometime in the sunday-Tuesday time frame. Lots of signals out there..whether it's a Miller B, a Norlun, a clipper...somehow, someway we are going to snow

Don't worry about it--it's always 10 days away:)

37.6/33

[free_man]

 Most of the arctic air is on the other side of the globe by the end of the 12z gfs op.    Plenty of trof, but not much arctic air.    

[ORH_wxman]

Most of the arctic air is on the other side of the globe by the end of the 12z gfs op. Plenty of trof, but not much arctic air.

It wouldn't matter anyway, its like -12C 850s over a large chunk of the northern/central tier. Unlike what you see in March, you can sustain and regenerate at least moderate cold in central Canada this time of year due to such short days. Notice how you get mid-level temps near 0C in central Canada by 200h and the block just sits there but you see everything cool to -10C or colder over the next 2-3 days.

[weathafella]

We'll have our chances and don't sell next week short given the GFS biases. It wouldn't take much to pop something decent. The block will wax and wane and we'll see some nice threats as it does.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd like to weaken it a little and flush everything out with a nice arctic atmosphere. At the same time however, it can be your friend.

I will take my chances with it nine years out of ten it will produce for us. Nina the baby Christmas child falls to the NE winter God.

[CoastalWx]

We'll have our chances and don't sell next week short given the GFS biases. It wouldn't take much to pop something decent. The block will wax and wane and we'll see some nice threats as it does.

It's an interesting pattern....one the will have us looking at each model run for days to come.

[Ginx snewx]

It wouldn't matter anyway, its like -12C 850s over a large chunk of the northern/central tier. Unlike what you see in March, you can sustain and regenerate at least moderate cold in central Canada this time of year due to such short days. Notice how you get mid-level temps near 0C in central Canada by 200h and the block just sits there but you see everything cool to -10C or colder over the next 2-3 days.

Exactly why would you want extreme cold that is heavy dry and suppressive?

[CoastalWx]

I will take my chances with it nine years out of ten it will produce for us. Nina the baby Christmas child falls to the NE winter God.

Yeah it can produce...I'm just biased to nice cold air for my own liking. It also can't hurt to have around when a storm comes imby.

[weatherwiz]

The pattern there from like 168 to 216 hours almost looks like some sort of omega block, no? Although usually in an omega block type pattern aren't the lows more in the SW/SE as opposed to the NW/NE?

[free_man]

It wouldn't matter anyway, its like -12C 850s over a large chunk of the northern/central tier. Unlike what you see in March, you can sustain and regenerate at least moderate cold in central Canada this time of year due to such short days. Notice how you get mid-level temps near 0C in central Canada by 200h and the block just sits there but you see everything cool to -10C or colder over the next 2-3 days.

Definitely as far as snow chances,   I was  just mentioning the fact it isn't a obliterating cold run of the gfs.   Looks like near to slightly below avg, not really a "cold" run like there's arctic surges coming into the CONUS.

Nothing wrong with that, either!

[weathafella]

Definitely as far as snow chances, I was just mentioning the fact it isn't a obliterating cold run of the gfs. Looks like near to slightly below avg, not really a "cold" run like there's arctic surges coming into the CONUS.

Nothing wrong with that, either!

5F subnormal to me is pretty cold in December and that's what is being depicted after d5.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Congrats Eastern New England....GFS at 300 hrs....looks like a safe bet.

[skierinvermont]

There GFS ensemble have a monster spread at 144h. There is no use in trying to pin down any solution until we are 48h closer. If we continue to see a suppressed look with that initial vortex...that means we'd be looking for more of a retrograde solution down the line. If the block/vortex eases off in the next several runs, then we'll probably trend toward a more straight forward redevelopment.

What about looking past the 12/5-6 event to something on 12/7-9.. I think the Euro showed a lot of potential there with a couple s/ws rotating in. If one is a little stronger than expected and amplifies we could have something in that time frame?

Also would you say it is fair to say the Euro capitulated to GFS suppression last night?

[snowNH]

Man isn't this better than chasing Earl or waiting for cap to break

[dryslot]

What i am taking from these runs is that at least it looks to be a cold December, The storms will come, As long as the cold air is around we will get our chances at snow here La Nina's will produce.........

[ORH_wxman]

What about looking past the 12/5-6 event to something on 12/7-9.. I think the Euro showed a lot of potential there with a couple s/ws rotating in. If one is a little stronger than expected and amplifies we could have something in that time frame?

Also would you say it is fair to say the Euro capitulated to GFS suppression last night?

Well the 12/7-9 event could end up being a retrograde scenario if 12/5-6 doesn't work out...GFS used the 2nd shortwave to do it last night unlike the 12z Euro solution.

Euro definitely trended less impressive with the first s/w last night which is what the GFS was doing. But we'll see how it does the next 1-2 runs. We may be trying for a retrograde solution or inverted trough setup if the blocking vortex doesn't ease up a bit in the next couple days of model suites.

[CT Rain]

At least we get a 300 hour hit on the GFS and the northern New England mountains get some great upslope.

I have to see it well be disappointing to see 2 weeks of cold go to waste if we can't get a good snow event out of it... at least there's potential... but realizing that may be a tough proposition.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's an interesting pattern....one the will have us looking at each model run for days to come.

Don't we do that anyway?

[dryslot]

It's an interesting pattern....one the will have us looking at each model run for days to come.

As we thought...