weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I think we'll get something out of it....too much karma built up from last season. If not it might be time to relocate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 One thing the Euro accomplishes is a cold start to December....we go to -8C 850 temps by day 3...then we never get warmer than that the rest of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 One thing the Euro accomplishes is a cold start to December....we go to -8C 850 temps by day 3...then we never get warmer than that the rest of the run. I'm glad I went cold/snowy for December in my winter forecast. This looks like a pretty wintry period coming up with two storm threats on the table and 850s staying near -10C with snow showers/flurries flying throughout the Northeast due to the retrograding low. I have a feeling we might moderate mid-month and then see a return to winter with potentially an arctic outbreak...I remember December 2007 had quite a cold spell right before Christmas when I came home from college, and December 1955 was very cold in the Northern Tier as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If not it might be time to relocate. I'd be shocked if we made it through this upcoming pattern without at least one mod event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I have a sneaking suspicion that ENE is going to begin to get some payback for last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'd be shocked if we made it through this upcoming pattern without at least one mod event. Yeah me too. I think you will get something pretty soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'd be shocked if we made it through this upcoming pattern without at least one mod event. Yeah same here, you definitely have to be quite optimistic about the upcoming pattern, it's great as well how it appears this pattern is shaping up right around the time when climo wise things become much more favorable. I'll take any kind of setup really over a suppressed setup. While I suppose it isn't entirely out of the question for one of the threats to end up suppressed it would be more of an exception type thing. I think definitely by Dec 15th we will have seen something, maybe not major, but at least something. And I also think once we see our first hit the second one is not too far behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I have a sneaking suspicion that ENE is going to begin to get some payback for last season. I hope the CT River Valley gets some as well...lots and lots of payback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I hope the CT River Valley gets some as well...lots and lots of payback. The CT River valley is prone to being screwed....my area isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The CT River valley is prone to being screwed....my area isn't. Not sure if we can get screwed any more than we did last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not sure if we can get screwed any more than we did last year. Not sure I'd tempt fate living there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If not it might be time to relocate. Lol..what did I say on FB Paul? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ice Warrior commander Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 In SNE, East facing slopes in KORH county can do well.. wrt late blooming Miller B's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not sure I'd tempt fate living there. Lol..what did I say on FB Paul? haha...well luckily I don't think the suppression thing is anything to worry about, if it happens once, so be it. If it happens with one of those potential storms or whatever big deal. We've seen plenty of times though in the past during Nina winters where in the medium/long range we'll see a suppressed solution only for the models to generally move the system further and further NW with time. If we end up seeing mainly SWFE's this winter we just get screwed b/c we are relatively close to the coast so were more prone to get the WAA aloft but at least we'll get some snow. But anyways, I'll take a setup like last winter every single year and probably 9 out of 10 years produce MAJOR snows for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 haha...well luckily I don't think the suppression thing is anything to worry about, if it happens once, so be it. If it happens with one of those potential storms or whatever big deal. We've seen plenty of times though in the past during Nina winters where in the medium/long range we'll see a suppressed solution only for the models to generally move the system further and further NW with time. If we end up seeing mainly SWFE's this winter we just get screwed b/c we are relatively close to the coast so were more prone to get the WAA aloft but at least we'll get some snow. But anyways, I'll take a setup like last winter every single year and probably 9 out of 10 years produce MAJOR snows for us. Touche...we definitely had a lot of bad luck. At least you can't whiff on a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Touche...we definitely had a lot of bad luck. At least you can't whiff on a SWFE. WEll one way to kind of "whiff" during a SWFE is if there isn't much in the way of cold air out ahead of the system and WAA in the lower levels occurs really fast...then we just basically go from snow showers with little accumulations to sleet and/or eventually rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not to forget the "non-chrystaline" event on our doorstep, here's an interesting statement: 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NY STATE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE NWS RAPID CITY PW CLIMATOLOGY STUDY AT KALB...NOTING THESE VALUES ARE OVER THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. I guess that would fit the definition of anamalous. 31.4/27. Temp rising since the 28.1 low at 1:30a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well, the 06z GFS says to enjoy the rain today/tomorrow. It's the only meaningful qpf for the next 10 days or so. On the up side, it does show a 988 low in central Ontario at 216z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Not to forget the "non-chrystaline" event on our doorstep, here's an interesting statement: 1.25 TO 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO EASTERN NY STATE BY 18Z WEDNESDAY. LOOKING AT THE NWS RAPID CITY PW CLIMATOLOGY STUDY AT KALB...NOTING THESE VALUES ARE OVER THE 99TH PERCENTILE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. I guess that would fit the definition of anamalous. 31.4/27. Temp rising since the 28.1 low at 1:30a.m. I'd like to get this out of the way and head into winter. Still only 17F here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Well, the 06z GFS says to enjoy the rain today/tomorrow. It's the only meaningful qpf for the next 10 days or so. On the up side, it does show a 988 low in central Ontario at 216z lol It's a new solution with every run ... my area was drilled on the 0z run, now it's flurries. Maybe once the Wednesday storm vacates there'll be something of a consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The 3-6 inches on Sunday/Monday is still the best way to go with a clipper..and maybe it develops into a Miller B though that is questionable. Surprised BOX ruled out any snow thru Monday. Not a good idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The plains s/w just gets sucked into the original spinning vortex over NE prior to its arrival and is never able to amplify before doing so. On this run, its obscene Atlantic blocking FTL. not too often we see the ec shift toward a gfs idea but it certainly did that last night in a few ways...at least for now. at least we know the cold is coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Surprised to see some folks thinking the GFS is right. Snow is coming Dec 5th folks..clipper style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 So to summerize.. Possible thunder, then lots of rain and crazy wind tonight/ tomorrow, then a possible 3-6" of snow for Monday. WOW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Tomorrow is the 1st day of met winter as well as my 64th birthday. It will be the last time for a good while that we have an event that we have no chance of seeing snow or frozen for a good part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 regardless of what transpires with respect to 5th/6th system or any follow up deal, this could be a good pattern for folks like Powderfreak and MRG. Nice cyclonic flow over the Northeast with a fair amount of moisture should lead to endless snowflakes for the Berks and Greens. Could be one of those deals where Pete is posting picks of snow-covered roads every day from his truck while a lot of us are p. sunny and 36F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 So to summerize.. Possible thunder, then lots of rain and crazy wind tonight/ tomorrow, then a possible 3-6" of snow for Monday. WOW 3-6 of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
COPO Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 3-6 of snow? Ya.. ask the guy from Tolland.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 regardless of what transpires with respect to 5th/6th system or any follow up deal, this could be a good pattern for folks like Powderfreak and MRG. Nice cyclonic flow over the Northeast with a fair amount of moisture should lead to endless snowflakes for the Berks and Greens. Could be one of those deals where Pete is posting picks of snow-covered roads every day from his truck while a lot of us are p. sunny and 36F. of course, that's not all that different than most days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 regardless of what transpires with respect to 5th/6th system or any follow up deal, this could be a good pattern for folks like Powderfreak and MRG. Nice cyclonic flow over the Northeast with a fair amount of moisture should lead to endless snowflakes for the Berks and Greens. Could be one of those deals where Pete is posting picks of snow-covered roads every day from his truck while a lot of us are p. sunny and 36F. Man you're really down on any snow chances for us.. The early week system is looking good imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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