Threat Thread

[Tropopause_Fold]

anyway...i'm out. too many late nights ahead for me in the coming months to be up now for a >day 6 event. LOL.

later.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah thats why I said "the end result"...it uses a different shortwave to accomplish the solution, but its a very similar storm for the final result up here.

But down in DCA its nothing like the Euro because the Euro s/w is compressed into nothing.

All the GFS does is confirm that it likes the blocking idea enough to retrograde a storm like th eEuro...no matter which shortwave is involved.

Good point. You can see the euro shortwave on this run, it's just a little more than 12 hours slower and gets flattened, but we still have one heck of a wrapped low.

[OKpowdah]

It's like you can almost see both solutions happening. I could very well see the first storm whiff and the second storm come up the coast, or the first storm hits us like the euro..and maybe the follow up storm hits or at least brushes sne. I'm just not confident on how the gfs is resolving the s/w in question out west.

horribly

The GFS and Euro are two completely different solutions that happen to still produce a significant snow storm for the region. This is a good sign, because although I think the GFS is worth very little right now, it's nice to see that different set ups have the same potential to bring happiness lol

[skierinvermont]

Ok let me see if I have this right.. the Euro is amplifying the s/w over Chicago on this map, while the GFS is amplifying the one behind it in ND while sheering out the first one. This accounts for much of the difference in timing. ???

[NorEastermass128]

Tons of potential here...hopefully Jerry slaughtered that elephant from last year

[Amped]

The ridge in the west gets undercut and severed, this happened in several notable events such as 1978, 1969 1953 and the Knickerbocker.

The bad news is there is no high pressure, and no southern stream shortwave to drag up gulf moisture. Good Luck

[CoastalWx]

Ok let me see if I have this right.. the Euro is amplifying the s/w over Chicago on this map, while the GFS is amplifying the one behind it in ND while sheering out the first one. This accounts for much of the difference in timing. ???

Yeah you got it.

[weathafella]

End of run, if you look at an entire NHEM pic, GFS is trying to move to a 3 wave pattern. Big changes as we move to the solstice. It COULD be a December to remember.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah you got it.

GFS is also slower with the s/w over ORD.

[skierinvermont]

Yeah you got it.

Awesome, thanks. Hard to keep all the s/ws straight in situations like this with 3, 4, 5 sw/s involved with multiple model runs on multiple models, especially when people are giving them different numbers. It helps when a met makes a threat thread and identifies and names all the s/ws involved, then everybody is on the same name/numbering system

[nzucker]

With even some cool anomalies coming up for the southeast.

December 1954 and 1975, both moderate-strong Niña years, had cold anomalies in the Southeast. It's not totally uncommon for December to have an unusual gradient compared to what one thinks about as a La Niña winter pattern.

Ok let me see if I have this right.. the Euro is amplifying the s/w over Chicago on this map, while the GFS is amplifying the one behind it in ND while sheering out the first one. This accounts for much of the difference in timing. ???

It looks to me as if there's a slight phase between the s/w over Chicago and the one over ND on the GFS...although it's definitely the trailing one that's more important.

Can you come on Facebook, Andrew?

[CoastalWx]

December 1954 and 1975, both moderate-strong Niña years, had cold anomalies in the Southeast. It's not totally uncommon for December to have an unusual gradient compared to what one thinks about as a La Niña winter pattern.

It looks to me as if there's a slight phase between the s/w over Chicago and the one over ND on the GFS...although it's definitely the trailing one that's more important.

Can you come on Facebook, Andrew?

I think it's likely more prone to blocking as well. I could look back, but I think those years featured a -nao??

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Maybe transitioning from a strong nino to a strong nina is causing some sort of lag effect in the atmosphere.

That would make sense considering how large and dynamic the playing field is. I was thinking about that a few weeks ago when there was so much focus being placed on the strength of the Nina and the PNA.

After all we are talking about a global homeostasis. Rebounds are not always immediate.

[CoastalWx]

I think it's likely more prone to blocking as well. I could look back, but I think those years featured a -nao??

Meh, both seemed fairly neutral...maybe on the + side for 12/54.

[ORH_wxman]

The GFS ensembles likely have some big weenie solutions since there's an inverted trough pointing right back at BOS around 192-204h.

[skierinvermont]

fwiw i think the ggem trended towards the gfs.. it doesn't amplify the first s/w at all anymore even though it did on 12z similar to the euro

[CoastalWx]

Alright well hopefully the trend continues tomorrow. Night fellas.

[ORH_wxman]

Alright well hopefully the trend continues tomorrow. Night fellas.

I'd like to see a trend toward a more straight up Miller B solution...I hate the uncertainty that revolves around the retrograde type scenarios. But we may end up having to deal with it.

This threat is still a ways out...its hard to remember that we are 6-8 days out depending on which solution you believe.

[hooralph]

Greetings from FLL. It's 76. Feels good, but I'm ready for snow. Bring it.

[CoastalWx]

Alright I lied.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian has a sn to ra scenario with a primary riding west and some sort of secondary perhaps on the 8th. Looks like a warm track.

[nzucker]

Meh, both seemed fairly neutral...maybe on the + side for 12/54.

I guess they had more of a +PNA/Plains block that kept the SE cooler.

[ORH_wxman]

00z Euro is coming in totally different than 12z with the plains s/w...its much flatter, but its definitely well defined with decent vorticity. That block in the Atlantic is so strong.

[CoastalWx]

00z Euro is coming in totally different than 12z with the plains s/w...its much flatter, but its definitely well defined with decent vorticity. That block in the Atlantic is so strong.

Yeah really squashed, although I suppose it's not a surprise given how complicated everything is.

[ORH_wxman]

The plains s/w just gets sucked into the original spinning vortex over NE prior to its arrival and is never able to amplify before doing so.

On this run, its obscene Atlantic blocking FTL.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This pattern looks like a weak El Nino.

:wub:

[earthlight]

The plains s/w just gets sucked into the original spinning vortex over NE prior to its arrival and is never able to amplify before doing so.

On this run, its obscene Atlantic blocking FTL.

Similar to the 12z and earlier GFS runs it sounds...figured something like this would probably unfold tonight. Going to be a long week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

agree...but will be interesting to see if it can actually deliver something. tons of potential here but in some respects i'd rather just see a sharp temp gradient stretched sw to ne across the conus and get a nice traditional nina SWFE.

I think we'll get something out of it....too much karma built up from last season.

[ORH_wxman]

Similar to the 12z and earlier GFS runs it sounds...figured something like this would probably unfold tonight. Going to be a long week.

It might be time better served sleeping and getting work done during the day and then coming back Thursday at 12z to see what it looks like. The spread in solutions possible out of this is obscene. The GFS ensembles are all over the map too. I wish I could see individual ECMWF ensemble members but its almost certainly all over the place too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It might be time better served sleeping and getting work done during the day and then coming back Thursday at 12z to see what it looks like. The spread in solutions possible out of this is obscene. The GFS ensembles are all over the map too. I wish I could see individual ECMWF ensemble members but its almost certainly all over the place too.

You'd almost certainly have to part with your future wife.