Threat Thread

[Tropopause_Fold]

Well until the Euro today I was thinking this would just be a Cliper with 3-6 north of the path..I still don't buy the retro either. But if it was a miller B coast would again have issues this early..at least until it bombed out

nah...you just can't have a screaming E wind this time of year and/or you need a nice antecedent air mass. last december illustrated that quite well really with ACK ripping S+ in a mid-december nor'easter.

if the mid-levels stay cold, it's not a major issue. if they tick up toward 0C, and you don't have a good NNE surface wind, then that's a problem.

[dryslot]

I think until Wed/Thurs, we have to assume that this is going to be miss. There's no sense in getting hyped up on a storm this is 7-8 days out. 4-5 days then its time to start taking it seriously. One thing I did read in the "Where we are at and where we are going" thread, is that with this pattern, it is extremely hard for the models to forecast 4-5 days out, not only 7-8 days. Something to keep in mind.

I don't think there is anyone here thats going to take 1 run on the euro and run to the grocery store, The models are showing threats, Thats all you can take this far out at this point......

[snowNH]

At this point, I don't even care if its rain. It will give us a nice storm to track for a week, before the pattern sets in.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Its almost a guarantee the 18z GFS will show a HECS. Then everyone will get hyped. Then the 00z GFS shows no snow. That's how it works.

My forecast is for this thread to triple in size when the 18z starts rolling.

37/27

Another night in the 20's coming up. I'm really enjoying watching the smaller bodies of water ice up. Even if it doesn't survive the mid-week deluge.

[ORH_wxman]

cannot be emphasized enough.

this is just like the opposite situation when people start jumping into their bathtubs with their hairdryers on (those of us without hair excluded) because a day 7-10 prog shows a massive rain storm and 55F.

take the run with a grain of salt and give it a few days here.

Yeah, I'm a little surprised at the off the cusp reaction by some on here. Usually the SNE threads were some of the most rational, however, I guess we've developed a new breed of reactionary weenies.

[Ginx snewx]

Hm. The ECM this run is a continuity break - particularly in its handling of the NAO blocking trainwreck in the north Atlantic/Greenland/D. Straight region, which then has profound impact on what can take place further SW in LAT/LON.

While it is hard not to be optimistic in this pattern - let's proceed with cautious optimism with that. I'd like to see a minimum of 3 cycles and the inclusion of other guidance types here as well. One aspect I would like to elaborate upon is that as we were discussing earlier surrounding needing the NAO to relax a bit, we actually see the operational ECM doing exactly that now on this run - in a quasi sense it's assisting along the Archambaultian solution less from the PNA modality and more from the NAO suddenly weakening.

That sudden weakening beginning D6 and ending D10 lowers the compression on the geopotential medium, which in turn allows the embedded S/W to begin thermodynamically differentiating more proficiently - this results in greater height falls --> feeding back on a deeper strong leading system.

Again, the timing of the NAO decay appears instrumental there, and given to this sped up aspect being a continuity shift I strongly urge waiting a minimum of 3 cycles (to mention some agreement).

Several days ago I posted that the timing of the AO NAO relaxation along with SW development could be a great happenstance, if you look at the indices, after this rise a drop occurs followed by another rise, clearly signs that something Heatheresque is afoot sometime in the next two weeks, it is all about timing now and wether one ****ty SW messes it all up or not JMHNCO. ( just my humble non confrontational opinion)

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised at the off the cusp reaction by some on here. Usually the SNE threads were some of the most rational, however, I guess we've developed a new breed of reactionary weenies.

I've stated several times how the dynamic morphs a bit from time to time with the influx of new posters.....the core group is pretty composed.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Winter has begun; Zeus is in the house....

[Damage In Tolland]

Winter has begun; Zeus is in the house....

On topic please jmho

[CoastalWx]

I've stated several times how the dynamic morphs a bit from time to time with the influx of new posters.....the core group is pretty composed.

I think last year left many looking forward to this winter...almost like how Aaron Boone made us look to the 2004 season with so much desire.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On topic please jmho

Im thinkn hecs for eveyone. just jmnco, no way this cuts west and no way its a suprised system, chuck em high chuck em far

[Ginx snewx]

cannot be emphasized enough.

this is just like the opposite situation when people start jumping into their bathtubs with their hairdryers on (those of us without hair excluded) because a day 7-10 prog shows a massive rain storm and 55F.

take the run with a grain of salt and give it a few days here.

Thank you Captain Obvious

[moneypitmike]

On to more immediate threats......

What a painfully slow eastward progression of the Tuesday/Wednesday rains. And boy, is there a lot of qpf on the 18z gfs for a lot of folks in central NY through parts of western/northern NE once it gets here.

33.9/25

[Ginx snewx]

Yeah, I'm a little surprised at the off the cusp reaction by some on here. Usually the SNE threads were some of the most rational, however, I guess we've developed a new breed of reactionary weenies.

Really? All I have read is people discussing model output and similar storms from the past, highly doubtful any body in SNE believes it. jMHNCO

[Mr Torchey]

39

dropping quickly despite some cirrus moving in.

[ORH_wxman]

Really? All I have read is people discussing model output and similar storms from the past, highly doubtful any body in SNE believes it. jMHNCO

No, I'm not talking about that...discussing model output and similarities to another storm is fine and it actually expands people's knowledge on how storms form and pattern recognition IMHO, but I've seen a lot of other posts int he past week or so that have a very deterministic and either depressed tone or excited tone if it happens to be a good solution.

I do think its good to get excited and/or depressed, but not because of 200 hour progs from run to run.

I think this is a legit threat or soon will be...its a clipper/redeveloper flavor that the blocking in the N ATL is going to promote. Whether it actually gets us or not is another question but I think its pretty safe to say we are beginning to encroach on the territory of first legit threat. Maybe another 24h of favorable solutions and we can call it that.

[CoastalWx]

There continues to be huge differences with the 18zgfs and 12zeuro....as if that's a surprise.

[Ginx snewx]

No, I'm not talking about that...discussing model output and similarities to another storm is fine and it actually expands people's knowledge on how storms form and pattern recognition IMHO, but I've seen a lot of other posts int he past week or so that have a very deterministic and either depressed tone or excited tone if it happens to be a good solution.

I do think its good to get excited and/or depressed, but not because of 200 hour progs from run to run.

I think this is a legit threat or soon will be...its a clipper/redeveloper flavor that the blocking in the N ATL is going to promote. Whether it actually gets us or not is another question but I think its pretty safe to say we are beginning to encroach on the territory of first legit threat. Maybe another 24h of favorable solutions and we can call it that.

I like it when you get excited, oh wait Picketts will call me a switch hitter again. I mean I am pleased you have expressed your interest in the possibility of a solid snow threat.

[dryslot]

There continues to be huge differences with the 18zgfs and 12zeuro....as if that's a surprise.

Yeah, One has a storm the other one don't..

[OKpowdah]

Yeah, One has a storm the other one don't..

very intuitive

[ski MRG]

That's my concern..I don't think this is done trending yet..and the coast may have some issues..this isn't Feb..It's Dec water temps aren't that cold

Come to Papa.heh heh heh.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah, One has a storm the other one don't..

The H5 pattern is night and day. The differences start out west, where the gfs completely dampens out the shortwave trough coming into the Rockies and Plains, while the euro holds this feature intact and then amplifies it as it approaches the East Coast. The GFS takes some of the energy from British Columbia and Alberta, and uses that as it moves east. I think that's the difference in timing right there.

[weathafella]

We should look for Euro continuity and if it holds for a few runs that is good reason for optimism. GFS is good for you know what in general but it was sweet last night. So that's twice that a major model had a MECS for DC northward but the timing and wave to key on is different although 12Z/29 ECMWF was pretty nice even beyond the storm!

[powderfreak]

God that's amazing. LIke 40/70 said... lets lock this in now. We get buried for days... synoptic moisture and lift, plus upslope flow/ascent equals jackpot.

12z EURO would crush portions of NNE... although we wouldn't have the max snowfall immediately, over the course of 3 days you'd see some big amounts start showing up in the north.

[moneypitmike]

There continues to be huge differences with the 18zgfs and 12zeuro....as if that's a surprise.

A real humdinger there on the gfs, eh? lol

So much for "intermodel" agreement. Time to hope for intramodel.

33.9/25

[ORH_wxman]

GFS ensemble analogs at D8

Top 2 are a couple heavy hitters for BOS...one 7.5" storm and one 12"+ storm.

Given its off the GFS ensembles, you still have to take with a grain of salt since the Euro and ensembles seem to be a bit different, but not too far off. The key is that the long wave pattern has produced some good events.

[Organizing Low]

Rotated Steve.

nice.

what is that, qpf?

looks like i get in on the action if so.

[Ginx snewx]

nice.

what is that, qpf?

looks like i get in on the action if so.

Yep QPF but it's only a model, remember that, LoL

[weathafella]

DGEX came way towards Euro fwiw (not much) but a good sign nonetheless.

[Damage In Tolland]

DGEX came way towards Euro fwiw (not much) but a good sign nonetheless.

:weenie:

It was also much farther north with last nite's run