Threat Thread

[CoastalWx]

ETauntonMA posted a map of it the other day. It was in cm the top amounts were 50cm in RI and eastern MA I think..not sure about Maine though.

Here is the paper on it. Western Maine did very nice.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1847:FASSIA>2.0.CO;2

[dryslot]

Here is the paper on it. Western Maine did very nice.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1847:FASSIA>2.0.CO;2

Thanks, Looks like 20 cm here, Mtns did do well.......

[Organizing Low]

Yep QPF but it's only a model, remember that, LoL

yeah we've all shoveled metres of qpf over the years

[ORH_wxman]

Here is the paper on it. Western Maine did very nice.

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1847:FASSIA>2.0.CO;2

[Organizing Low]

It is quite interesting that 1981 keeps popping up

just checked

8 inches here in montreal in 81,

i'll take it.

EDIT matches up nicely with the map just posted above.

[Damage In Tolland]

Very average Dom. I hope they're wrong.

I have seen the fattest squirrels in my neighborhood than I have ever seen in my yrs of monitoring them. These things are monsters..Not kidding

[MaineJayhawk]

ETauntonMA posted a map of it the other day. It was in cm the top amounts were 50cm in RI and eastern MA I think..not sure about Maine though.

It was odd in that Connecticut's totals were in inches.

[H2Otown_WX]

It was odd in that Connecticut's totals were in inches.

[Ginx snewx]

No, having anything corroborate the Euro's camp is a start.

I never implied you don't know your stuff...just that you tend to hedge toward the optimistic side of things so heavily that it compromises your objectivity a bit....jmho.

I know I'm far from perfect.

Dude I know that just mess in, like I said a million times, I never post to offend just bustin,, Tell ya this man is Socks humming a different tune, like it.

[ski MRG]

Trying to decipher the end of the UKmet run. Is it showing the same retro low but pulled even farther West than other guidance?

[dryslot]

Trying to decipher the end of the UKmet run. Is it showing the same retro low but pulled even farther West than other guidance?

God forbid trying to read those ancient scrolls...........

[Mr Torchey]

I have seen the fattest squirrels in my neighborhood than I have ever seen in my yrs of monitoring them. These things are monsters..Not kidding

I would imagine they would be after being high on the hog chalk full of CHimpUnk over the summer.

[ski MRG]

God forbid trying to read those ancient scrolls...........

LOL, really want to delve deeper with model analysis. I've been doing a good deal of reading but one question leads to 10 more. Lots of time required to self-teach and time is at such a premium. Wish the days were longer. Wish life were longer.

[dryslot]

LOL, really want to delve deeper with model analysis. I've been doing a good deal of reading but one question leads to 10 more. Lots of time required to self-teach and time is at such a premium. Wish the days were longer. Wish life were longer.

I hear ya, I am trying to learn the H5 maps on the models so i can understand better what will happen at the surface.......

[ski MRG]

I hear ya, I am trying to learn the H5 maps on the models so i can understand better what will happen at the surface.......

Thinking that the whole retro scenario seems like a long shot. A slow moving Miller B type storm seems more plausible but maybe only because that is the more familiar scenario. Could still be nothing or OTS as well but it seems like the 12/4 through 12/6 period has been flagged since the middle of November.

[weatherwiz]

LOL, really want to delve deeper with model analysis. I've been doing a good deal of reading but one question leads to 10 more. Lots of time required to self-teach and time is at such a premium. Wish the days were longer. Wish life were longer.

I totally know what you mean here, that is a goal of mine this winter as well. I've tried to do lots of reading as well but just like you it leads to questions and questions and more questions. Reading and understanding models though for the most part is self-teaching, you can read all you want and such but there really is no better way to learn than to actually just look at model run after model run and just try to familiarize yourself as much as possible. It's almost like with every single event and model run you learn something new.

This is basically what I did for severe weather stuff. I know many people on here say to people who are just learning to read more and post less...I'm not a big fan at all of that "advice". The best way I think to learn is to just get yourself wet. When I used to make severe wx threads and such I would make them but really only described what I knew and I would learn a tons more from other people chiming in and talking about things that I wasn't aware of...so the next time there was a threat I would then look at that as well...and so on and so on.

[dryslot]

Thinking that the whole retro scenario seems like a long shot. A slow moving Miller B type storm seems more plausible but maybe only because that is the more familiar scenario. Could still be nothing or OTS as well but it seems like the 12/4 through 12/6 period has been flagged since the middle of November.

I'm not buying the retro solution as well, Not saying its impossible as last year showed but if the blocking upstream is displaced or weakens then i think we could see more of a track thru the GOM into Nova Scotia rather then being squeezed NW into Northern Maine.....

[Ginx snewx]

I hear ya, I am trying to learn the H5 maps on the models so i can understand better what will happen at the surface.......

Just hope for a closed sub 510 spinning south of Block Island

[ski MRG]

I totally know what you mean here, that is a goal of mine this winter as well. I've tried to do lots of reading as well but just like you it leads to questions and questions and more questions. Reading and understanding models though for the most part is self-teaching, you can read all you want and such but there really is no better way to learn than to actually just look at model run after model run and just try to familiarize yourself as much as possible. It's almost like with every single event and model run you learn something new.

This is basically what I did for severe weather stuff. I know many people on here say to people who are just learning to read more and post less...I'm not a big fan at all of that "advice". The best way I think to learn is to just get yourself wet. When I used to make severe wx threads and such I would make them but really only described what I knew and I would learn a tons more from other people chiming in and talking about things that I wasn't aware of...so the next time there was a threat I would then look at that as well...and so on and so on.

Wiz, you're the greatest.lol

[CoastalWx]

I hear ya, I am trying to learn the H5 maps on the models so i can understand better what will happen at the surface.......

The one thing that people get confused about, are those vorticity maps and upper level lows. Unlike in tornadogenesis where rotation makes its way down to the surface, it does not work in the same fashion for mid latitude storms. In general, surface low pressure develops downwind of the actual vortmax shown at H5. This goes back to what I said about convergence/divergence over on easternuswx, but in general you have upward vertical motion ahead of the approaching vortmax, due to divergence in the atmosphere at this level. This divergence helps evacuate air at this level, and thus facilitates rising motion of air, from the lower levels. I know some people think vorticity at 500mb gets translated to the surface, but that's not how it works.

[dryslot]

Just hope for a closed sub 510 spinning south of Block Island

lol, Rather see it stacked just inside the benchmark.......

[H2Otown_WX]

The one thing that people get confused about, are those vorticity maps and upper level lows. Unlike in tornadogenesis where rotation makes its way down to the surface, it does not work in the same fashion for mid latitude storms. In general, surface low pressure develops downwind of the actual vortmax shown at H5. This goes back to what I said about convergence/divergence over on easternuswx, but in general you have upward vertical motion ahead of the approaching vortmax, due to divergence in the atmosphere at this level. This divergence helps evacuate air at this level, and thus facilitates rising motion of air, from the lower levels. I know some people think vorticity at 500mb gets translated to the surface, but that's not how it works.

I read that the surface low tends to develop just to the east of a vortmax.

[weatherwiz]

Wiz, you're the greatest.lol

[CoastalWx]

I read that the surface low tends to develop just to the east of a vortmax.

It depends on how the flow is oriented and how amplified the trough is, but in general, yeah they can be found e and ne of the vortmax.

[dryslot]

The one thing that people get confused about, are those vorticity maps and upper level lows. Unlike in tornadogenesis where rotation makes its way down to the surface, it does not work in the same fashion for mid latitude storms. In general, surface low pressure develops downwind of the actual vortmax shown at H5. This goes back to what I said about convergence/divergence over on easternuswx, but in general you have upward vertical motion ahead of the approaching vortmax, due to divergence in the atmosphere at this level. This divergence helps evacuate air at this level, and thus facilitates rising motion of air, from the lower levels. I know some people think vorticity at 500mb gets translated to the surface, but that's not how it works.

Would the surface low be SE of the upper level low?

[CoastalWx]

I read that the surface low tends to develop just to the east of a vortmax.

It also depends on processes that go on at the surface. For instance, low pressure can sometimes develop a little further south then we would normally think, if we have a strong baroclinic zone...such as the gulfstream. Any little help with divergence aloft will spawn cyclogenesis.

[MaineJayhawk]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/1085-i-have-questions/

[dryslot]

It also depends on processes that go on at the surface. For instance, low pressure can sometimes develop a little further south then we would normally think, if we have a strong baroclinic zone...such as the gulfstream. Any little help with divergence aloft will spawn cyclogenesis.

That was my next question, Wouldn't we want to see the upperlevel low track thru SE Pennsylvania to form a secondary in the baroclinic zone around the delmarva or NJ coast?

[ski MRG]

It depends on how the flow is oriented and how amplified the trough is, but in general, yeah they can be found e and ne of the vortmax.

So when I'm looking at the UKMET 500mb chart at hr 144 I should extrapolate that the SLP placement is likely to the E or NE of the UL, which would be a similar placement to the EURO @144?

[Ginx snewx]

So when I'm looking at the UKMET 500mb chart at hr 144 I should extrapolate that the SLP placement is likely to the E or NE of the UL, which would be a similar placement to the EURO @144?

Depends on the flow, feast here on this site showing how lots of biggies formed with examples of all levels.

http://greatlakes.salsite.com/PhasingStorms.html