ski MRG Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thanks Ginx, saved it. So in this retro situation, that would be considered a backing flow ahead of the UL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That was my next question, Wouldn't we want to see the upperlevel low track thru SE Pennsylvania to form a secondary in the baroclinic zone around the delmarva or NJ coast? Probably a little further south, but it's almost like snowflakes...no two storms are alike. It just depends on the behavior of the short wave trough. Check out today's euro. Hr 96 Here is hr 120. Note the low pressure out ahead of the vortmax, but a little too the south. This is also because the trough is digging to the south. As it digs to the south, the best dynamics and height falls are going along with it. Here is hr 144. Now, the low is just ne of the vortmax. Some of this is the result of things going on in lower levels like coastal frontogenesis and warm air advection. However, the upper level low is about to swing ne and is also intensifying. This causes the best forcing to align more to the ne of the vortmax, and also closer to the vortmax itself as everything becomes more wrapped up. Low pressure in this example is behaving as we thought. At hr 168, the low is basically vertically stacked meaning the upper level low is on top of the surface low. Notice though, the extension of low pressure to the north. It's responding to vorticity advection and also strong warm air advection ahead of the low. Looking at that, it looks like low pressure will migrate to that area...or even a secondary low could form. In this case, the low just moves towards the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thanks Ginx, saved it. So in this retro situation, that would be considered a backing flow ahead of the UL? Then you get into a capture situation where there UL actually pulls the LP into it's circulation. Stacked lows at all levels occlude and the dynamics lessen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Probably a little further south, but it's almost like snowflakes...no two storms are alike. It just depends on the behavior of the short wave trough. Check out today's euro. Hr 96 Here is hr 120. Note the low pressure out ahead of the vortmax, but a little too the south. This is also because the trough is digging to the south. As it digs to the south, the best dynamics and height falls are going along with it. Here is hr 144. Now, the low is just ne of the vortmax. Some of this is the result of things going on in lower levels like coastal frontogenesis and warm air advection. However, the upper level low is about to swing ne and is also intensifying. This causes the best forcing to align more to the ne of the vortmax, and also closer to the vortmax itself as everything becomes more wrapped up. Low pressure in this example is behaving as we thought. At hr 168, the low is basically vertically stacked meaning the upper level low is on top of the surface low. Notice though, the extension of low pressure to the north. It's responding to vorticity advection and also strong warm air advection ahead of the low. Looking at that, it looks like low pressure will migrate to that area...or even a secondary low could form. In this case, the low just moves towards the Gulf of Maine. Of your 1120 posts ( ) that one was the best (and most informative) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ginx, Scott, very illuminating. Thanks for the patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Thinking that the whole retro scenario seems like a long shot. A slow moving Miller B type storm seems more plausible but maybe only because that is the more familiar scenario. Could still be nothing or OTS as well but it seems like the 12/4 through 12/6 period has been flagged since the middle of November. Very good summarization, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ginx, Scott, very illuminating. Thanks for the patience. Great job guys thanks for the insight.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 lol, Rather see it stacked just inside the benchmark....... This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ginx, Scott, very illuminating. Thanks for the patience. Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Very good summarization, actually. LOL, Capt. Obvious at your service. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. I think he'd make an exception in light of the quality of these posts.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. I think this is very legit to post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. Why, it is model discussion loosely tied to the upcoming event. Ok, model interpretation 101 but I'd dare say there are quite a few lurkers that are quietly enjoying the material/knowledge that is being presented in such an digestable fashion. My job requires me to think in 3d constantly, I like learning to think of the atmosphere and it's machinations in the same way. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. nice. key point. also relative to where you're best lift will be as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Radio show is on now with DT, Ian, Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 DT is up on radio... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted November 30, 2010 Author Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ok, radio show time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Really quickly...don't always follow the vortmax core and think that's where low pressure will be. It's where the best advection is. Advection by definition depends on the quantity and how fast the quantity is brought in. So you can have weak vorticity, but have it advected in by strong flow, or strong vorticity but advected in by weak flow. It all depends on how fast and how much is being advected in. Will is going to kill me, but at least it's not banter. I keep looking at that super cold 5 h that spawned the DC blizzard, amazing evolution and a great example of all of your fantastic explanations. Crashing heights in winter make me wet.Wiz style. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I started a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ok, radio show time. I'm not getting in--anyone else having problems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Sounds good (miss old DT!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Just saw the Euro... nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I'm not getting in--anyone else having problems? I got in a minute ago with the "go to" drop down menu at the top right of the page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I got in a minute ago with the "go to" drop down menu at the top right of the page. Thats how I did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Just saw the Euro... nice Miller B/A combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Anyone else think the 12z Euro is a little far fetched? hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Kids are in bed, wife's asleep....I'm playing Halo and listening to the radio show. Yikes. I swear I used to be cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Anyone else think the 12z Euro is a little far fetched? hahah Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Anyone else think the 12z Euro is a little far fetched? hahah Yes...I think a more straight forward Miller B development is more likely than that solution. But given the pattern and analogs, I don't think a retrograde solution can be discounted. Dec 6, 1981 has been on the analog map for quite awhile. But that said, its still hard to take a retrograde solution that hits YBY seriously until its much closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Anyone else think the 12z Euro is a little far fetched? hahah just a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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