Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 alright then. no, was looking at yesterday's run and then being typically retarded John still, you guys would crap your pants if saw some of the individual runs from 12z yesterday .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 where are you getting the individual members for 12z already? He was yanking our chain. Ensembles are all over the place though. Some try to rush in the Dec 8-9th threat by 12/7. There's going to be a ton of speculation for the next 3-4 days. This is about as tough as it gets to figure out a deterministic solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 He was yanking our chain. Ensembles are all over the place though. Some try to rush in the Dec 8-9th threat by 12/7. There's going to be a ton of speculation for the next 3-4 days. This is about as tough as it gets to figure out a deterministic solution. All over the place to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 no, was looking at yesterday's run and then being typically retarded John still, you guys would crap your pants if saw some of the individual runs from 12z yesterday .... no worries. just thought you had a site that i didn't know of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 You guys would crap your pants if you glanced over the individual GFS members from 12z ... One or two of those has like -6SD closed 500MB vortex tuck into the NJ coast out in time. The implications of that would be indescribable. Can you try for numbskulls like me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 He was yanking our chain. Ensembles are all over the place though. Some try to rush in the Dec 8-9th threat by 12/7. There's going to be a ton of speculation for the next 3-4 days. This is about as tough as it gets to figure out a deterministic solution. And some try to cut it west too. What a mess to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 He was yanking our chain. Ensembles are all over the place though. Some try to rush in the Dec 8-9th threat by 12/7. There's going to be a ton of speculation for the next 3-4 days. This is about as tough as it gets to figure out a deterministic solution. Actually I meant it - buuuuut was being an idiot and looking at yesterday's 12z cluster. That said, there were a couple members that were off-charts in the mid and upper levels for D10... And you are also correct - there is very little consensus there. It is what it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 And some try to cut it west too. What a mess to figure out. yeah i like the one run that still makes the 12/5 system a strong cutter. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 yeah i like the one run that still makes the 12/5 system a strong cutter. lol. It looks like some of those models really weaken/lift the block out pretty quickly. That's probably why it has that solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 It looks like some of those models really weaken/lift the block out pretty quickly. That's probably why it has that solution. Yeah I posted above that since we had this pattern shift prior to Thanksgiving, the roughly 7 day forecasts for NAO have seemed to be overdoing the blocking, which is one of the reasons (in addition to the PAC trends) I see some optimism for the Dec 5th event not to be crunched into nothing by too much block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 There's going to be a ton of speculation for the next 3-4 days. This is about as tough as it gets to figure out a deterministic solution. Finally, some solid comedy for the holidays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Finally, some solid comedy for the holidays. Bout time you joined the fray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Bout time you joined the fray. Don't get too excited; I don't plan on posting much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yeah I posted above that since we had this pattern shift prior to Thanksgiving, the roughly 7 day forecasts for NAO have seemed to be overdoing the blocking, which is one of the reasons (in addition to the PAC trends) I see some optimism for the Dec 5th event not to be crunched into nothing by too much block. Yeah hopefully. I didn't rule it out, but I felt kind of crappy about it this morning. However, for the first time in 2 yrs..we're seeing the ATL block perhaps be a little weaker than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 hmmm...well at least it's not diving to hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 12z Euro still way faster than the GFS with the s/w.. it's in Iowa while the GFS still has a ridge there at 120 hours. I was hoping the 12z GFS might trump an old Euro run, but the Euro holds serve. But it looks fairly amplified anyways so it still could be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 You guys would crap your pants if you glanced over the individual GFS members from 12z ... One or two of those has like -6SD closed 500MB vortex tuck into the NJ coast out in time. The implications of that would be indescribable. If it involved damaging wind and rain for the Jersey coast, rain in the Mid-Atlantic and snow here, I'll take a stab at describing it in whatever form you'd you like: limerick, Homerian epic, Faulknerian prose... take your pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 The euro is a little further west with the ridge in the Davis Straits, and the trough off the east coast is a little weaker and further north. This allows the s/w in the OH valley to amplify a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 hmmm...well at least it's not diving to hatteras. Yeah looks a lot healthier, still think it will end up too far south on this run, but given its 6+ days out, obviously way too early to get too excited or worried about actual solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 lol...congrats MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Looks a little more interesting than last night to me.. reminds me a lot of the storms we had last year with the strong blocking. Plenty of time for adjustments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Nice 4-6" event for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 lol...congrats MA. That's a nice step in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Looks like we are making progress on the Euro....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Wow big low just se of BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Check out that little tiny piece of vorticity SW of Hudson Bay at 72 hours...now follow it for the next 48-60 hours on the loop and its actually what prevents this from becoming a full blown Miller B...and keeps it more of a clipper type system. Given that, you can see how a little feature can change something much further out. If that isn't there or is weaker, then you have a much different outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's a nice step in the right direction though. yeah...certainly is. that's a bomb right there. assuming it's not rain out at ACK - they get whacked pretty good out there too. actually...all of E MA gets in on some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Lol...I may have spoken too soon...BOS getting in on steady snows by 162...eastern SNE getting into the outer Def band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Check out that little tiny piece of vorticity SW of Hudson Bay at 72 hours...now follow it for the next 48-60 hours on the loop and its actually what prevents this from becoming a full blown Miller B...and keeps it more of a clipper type system. Given that, you can see how a little feature can change something much further out. If that isn't there or is weaker, then you have a much different outcome. LOL, look at hr 168. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Even gets us here in Maine this is a nice trend, Hopefully we hold onto this solution on the next few runs......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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