Threat Thread

[COPO]

Wouldn't this be snow for alot of us? If its true?

[Typhoon Tip]

Wouldn't this be snow for alot of us? If its true?

No - cold, but snow would be confined to western Maine and eastern Ontario... Otherwise that is backside NV (negative vorticity), which implies downward vertical motion and thus precipitation has ceased. Probably clear/partial clear and bone cold rattling gust NNW/NW winds.

BTW, haven't seen anything since yesterday's post to dissuade my thinking; still believe the NAO will relax in ~11 days and leading up to that time we will probably begin seeing better storm plausibilities coming into focus on the deterministic runs - keeping in mind, the ensemble means will often blend enough weaker system depictions that other than rare times will be less extreme than the leading member.

[ORH_wxman]

This is going to trend north... NNE interior will due well. Predictable at this time of the season. Quick couple inches at SNE interior areas like pete. Just an early hunch

I'd be utterly shocked if this trended into a SW flow event where SNE flips to rain....the blocking is too much on the ATL side right now.

[Alpha5]

I'd be utterly shocked if this trended into a SW flow event where SNE flips to rain....the blocking is too much on the ATL side right now.

For the 5th or 8th threat? They both look solid atm

[ORH_wxman]

For the 5th or 8th threat? They both look solid atm

The 5th threat. It just gets crushed by the 3 car pile up on the Atlantic side.

The 8th-9th threat could really do anything at this point...including be a lakes cutter. But from this long time range, it looks like a good chance.

[Alpha5]

The 5th threat. It just gets crushed by the 3 car pile up on the Atlantic side.

The 8th-9th threat could really do anything at this point...including be a lakes cutter. But from this long time range, it looks like a good chance.

Yeah no way thats a SWFE, I could see the models trending further north but no way that thing cuts to the west considering the state of the atlantic

[Typhoon Tip]

Here ...let me poke the hornet's nest of optimism and get this thread buzzing again -

Ooh ooh, just saw the zero z ECMWF deterministic reason for arousal!

I like that overall appeal of the -NAO block trending to slide SE beyond D7. For one, this is about the average residence for the average NAO pulse; but more self-serving ...this may in fact be the relaxation that Scooter and I were intimating in our discussions the yesterday. Ironically...timed for ~D10 from last night, which is just about on target.

This was hinted on the 12z run yesterday but I let it ride on only a 2-run continuity. Afterall, the cold ECM appeals in general were abruptly introduced just 3 cycles and click ago... That said, (gulp down some drool...), the ECM kicks out a SW conus mid and upper level closed low and sags it through the MV->TV and lower MA eventually nearing D10. But, since the NAO wall has relaxed, the gradient overall has also physically relaxed, and that allows 2 things:

1) The opening closed low does not get sheared to obliteration by a compressed geopotential medium (fancy talk for doesn't disappear)

2) This lowers the resistence to any well-timed polar stream S/W that would surely subsume it and result a big phased bomb along the east coast. If you crack your KU catalog you can order up a significant percentage of those historic bombs were in fact a merger - of sorts - between a SW ejection a gasoline and a polar stream match. ...Not all, but as a 50% analog in the least you will find that to be true.

Granted, the model does not outright show this (...and it's D10 already!), but is sure is heck fire hints so ... now across 3 cycles! On D10 of this 00z depiction you got foresaid migration already inducing a Gulf wave that has bombed leaving the lower M/A... At this kind of time range, a subtle spike in the persisting -PNA combined with any success in the foresaid relaxation of the NAO/reposition of the block, could very very easily assert a correction for more phasing be in there somewhere (spatial-temporality notwithstanding...)

I am officially on board with "Star Wars IV: A New Hope". "Help us Obe Won; you're are only hope". I'm like a Jedi Knight with weather charts - sometimes I think I can induce the modality by envisioning it first. Now I like that... muahahahahaha.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah no way thats a SWFE, I could see the models trending further north but no way that thing cuts to the west considering the state of the atlantic

Yes La Nina's sometimes have "tendencies" meaning the north trend that some refer to, but blocking does not care what the ENSO state is.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z GFS is interesting @162h.

[ORH_wxman]

12z GFS is digging the 12/5-6 shortwave a lot more. Its still too late to produce much, but its certainly a welcome trend. Given that its like 168-180h out, we still have so much time to see a lot of trends happen.

[CoastalWx]

Looks similar to the euro.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Will, I think the more the 5/6th storm can dig the better the follow storm will be as well. Allowing for more amplification. As it stands now the follow up system is just a little too far offshore.

[Damage In Tolland]

As we thought

[CoastalWx]

Pretty cold run. That ridge along northern AK just pumps the cold in Canada, while the big trough west of CA looks like it generates enough ridging in the Rockies to keep eastern areas of the country, colder.

[ORH_wxman]

Will, I think the more the 5/6th storm can dig the better the follow storm will be as well. Allowing for more amplification. As it stands now the follow up system is just a little too far offshore.

Yeah probably...I'm not too worried about the follow up system. I've always tended to concentrate on the earlier system as long as its a threat as there is never any guarantee the 9th/10th system will even be there on future runs...though the signal for something around then is pretty strong.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Yeah probably...I'm not too worried about the follow up system. I've always tended to concentrate on the earlier system as long as its a threat as there is never any guarantee the 9th/10th system will even be there on future runs...though the signal for something around then is pretty strong.

Cool. Just learning how to interpret the maps.

[skierinvermont]

Doesn't the Euro basically have a shortwave that the GFS doesn't? At 00z 12/5 the Euro has a shortwave crossing south of Chicago, while the GFS has nothing there. All the GFS has is the rotting ocean low offshore of NE. The Euro takes the shortwave in the plains and wraps up a 995mb low off NC by 00z 12/6... the GFS has nada.

Or is it just that the timing is different? By 00z 12/6 the GFS does have a shortwave over the northern plains but that is 24+ hours behind the Euro.

[ORH_wxman]

Doesn't the Euro basically have a shortwave that the GFS doesn't? At 00z 12/5 the Euro has a shortwave crossing south of Chicago, while the GFS has nothing there. All the GFS has is the rotting ocean low offshore of NE. The Euro takes the shortwave in the plains and wraps up a 995mb low off NC by 00z 12/6... the GFS has nada.

GFS has it, but its just significantly slower than the Euro. GFS has it over the upper plains at the same time the Euro has it near the lower lakes.

GFS tries to have a sheared piece of energy near Chicago at 00z Dec 5th, but the main s/w is clearly further NW...most of that stuff is currently in a bad data area up near the Bering straight so you'd favor the EC solution given model initialization scores.

[CoastalWx]

GFS has it, but its just significantly slower than the Euro. GFS has it over the upper plains at the same time the Euro has it near the lower lakes.

GFS tries to have a sheared piece of energy near Chicago at 00z Dec 5th, but the main s/w is clearly further NW...most of that stuff is currently in a bad data area up near the Bering straight so you'd favor the EC solution given model initialization scores.

It tried doing something similar to what the euro does out west, but yeah it's practically 24 hrs off with the shortwave in question.

[Alpha5]

GFS looks more like the euro, but slower

Also suppresses the second storm, while the euro develops it and brings it up the coast

[skierinvermont]

GFS has it, but its just significantly slower than the Euro. GFS has it over the upper plains at the same time the Euro has it near the lower lakes.

GFS tries to have a sheared piece of energy near Chicago at 00z Dec 5th, but the main s/w is clearly further NW...most of that stuff is currently in a bad data area up near the Bering straight so you'd favor the EC solution given model initialization scores.

Cool.. I guessed the same thing in my edit glad to know I am seeing the same thing you are. I think the slower GFS would actually be better than the Euro, and would actually give us very good storm chances on 12/6-7 wouldn't it? The Euro is more likely to have a bunch of sheared out waves. Hopefully the Euro trends slower at 12z.

[ORH_wxman]

It tried doing something similar to what the euro does out west, but yeah it's practically 24 hrs off with the shortwave in question.

I like the trend of trying to temporarily pump heights in the west...on both models.

I don't think we're in a bad spot model-wise at this juncture. The ATL blocking is tough to figure out, so its not an obvious N trend situation in my book, but I think the chances are good we see the s/w in question be a little more amplified as we get closer given the trend of the vortex near the eastern Aleutions and the newer trend of ATL blocking verifying a bit weaker than models have shown at 7 days out. Not sure that means a whole lot though, as prior to this current blocking episode it had been verifying stronger.

[CoastalWx]

I like the trend of trying to temporarily pump heights in the west...on both models.

I don't think we're in a bad spot model-wise at this juncture. The ATL blocking is tough to figure out, so its not an obvious N trend situation in my book, but I think the chances are good we see the s/w in question be a little more amplified as we get closer given the trend of the vortex near the eastern Aleutions and the newer trend of ATL blocking verifying a bit weaker than models have shown at 7 days out. Not sure that means a whole lot though, as prior to this current blocking episode it had been verifying stronger.

I haven't looked too hard up that way, but I see what you mean. It almost phases with the trough off of CA, creating that massive ridge, by hr 168.

[Typhoon Tip]

You guys would crap your pants if you glanced over the individual GFS members from 12z ... One or two of those has like -6SD closed 500MB vortex tuck into the NJ coast out in time. The implications of that would be indescribable.

[Tropopause_Fold]

You guys would crap your pants if you glanced over the individual GFS members from 12z ... One or two of those has like -6SD closed 500MB vortex tuck into the NJ coast out in time. The implications of that would be indescribable.

where are you getting the individual members for 12z already?

[CoastalWx]

Looks like the Canadian continues the trend over the west coast and especially off the coast of British Columbia.

00z.

12z

[weathafella]

These 12Z trends really make 12/5 much more plausible to me. One more kink and we have a little snow storm to set the table for whatever comes afterwards.

[Typhoon Tip]

where are you getting the individual members for 12z already?

President Obama's chief science officer just faxed them to me via a grade e NSA transmission protocol from a terran headquarter thinking for the strategic initiative to prevent Natural Disaster planning - they were looking for consultation.

Frankly I've grown tired of their interferring with my life everyime a meteor strays within a quarter parsec, or a geo-firma model for geologic and atmospheric phenonmenon goes bonkers. I'm just a civilian already! ...It was either that or be hauled away by trench coats for being a Nation security risk - the price tag for being such an indescribably good looking genius...

[Tropopause_Fold]

President Obama's chief science officer just faxed them to me via a grade e NSA transmission protocol from a terran headquarter thinking for the strategic initiative to prevent Natural Disaster planning - they were looking for consultation.

Frankly I've grown tired of their interferring with my life everyime a meteor strays within a quarter parsec, or a geo-firma model for geologic and atmospheric phenonmenon goes bonkers. I'm just a civilian already! ...It was either that or be hauled away by trench coats for being a Nation security risk - the price tag for being such an indescribably good looking genius...

alright then.

[Typhoon Tip]

alright then.

no, was looking at yesterday's run and then being typically retarded John

still, you guys would crap your pants if saw some of the individual runs from 12z yesterday ....