powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 12z GFS continues the odd-ball scenario of a retrograding low... starts southeast of St Johns in Canada and ends up backing through the Maritime provinces. This would still be a decent snow producer for the mountains; strong upslope signal. Keeps backing in 30 hours later... And still there another 24 hours later... C'mon lucky GFS.... No real hint of any 12/3-4 threat but this retrograde storm lasts for a few days after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Yeah I'm guessing they do too..this is not a south miss type pattern..totally different than last year You can't discount an anomalous, significant event or two doing so, but that should not be the predominate outcome this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 In simply amazing rapidity the AO has dropped precipitously to a near -4 level. The NAO has tanked along side it, not any surprise since the correlation is basically linear. The levels moderate as coastal development occurs nearby. I will agree with the the non suppressed out come if a SW develops in the time frame of teleconnection modality rise. What is very encouraging is the levels again fall then rise as the next , what appears to me to be a major moisture loaded system, develops. Should be a fun two weeks starting Thursday. Chuck um high chuck um wide chuck um far chuck a weenie in your eye. FIYAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 We'll need the update from someone on how the euro ensembles look. I'm guessing plenty of spread...alot north ..some south GFS says no one has anything to worry about... there is no 12/5 threat for anyone. Dry with high pressure building in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I'm not going to jump off any cliffs nor will I be raising my arms in victory over any of the model depictions. I'm enjoying them struggle mightily with how things are going to play out. Their massive swings merely point to the fact that we shouldn't get our hopes up until things are within a reasonable window (5 days max is what I'm currently thinking). At least that's the way I'm seeing it right now. 35.8/25, virtually all the snow melted. MPM i agree to a piont regarding models.....but i gotta tell you with the way the overall pattern appears to be shaping up with a little consistency building colder from thurs on.....and stormy periods to boot. I think you should have your arms half raised.....hell you may even see some snow late wednesday nite....but treat that as a rain storm anything else bonus. . The church bus of the rev is getting an oil change....pete is laying down in his lawn praying to the stars/snow gods.....and even ray is about to enter mid season form. SO long as the euro doesn't do anything silly mon or tuesday with long range props...lol.....the bus is leaving the station at 1 am thursday morn. EVERYONE get on or get the F out the way. can't stop in S+++++ it is gong from kev's to will's to your house down to pete's and around and around again...... were pickin up all weenies.....ginx sounds like he is pumped baby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 GFS says no one has anything to worry about... there is no 12/5 threat for anyone. Dry with high pressure building in. Well the GFS at this time frame is worthless..and shouldn't even be looked at..no need for it until 3 days and under Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well the GFS at this time frame is worthless..and shouldn't even be looked at..no need for it until 3 days and under Haha, sorry, trolled that post and got someone to bite. I wasn't sure who it would be, but knew someone would chime in with that exact message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro Ensembles-sheared and weak...late late bloomer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro Ensembles-sheared and weak...late late bloomer Better than another MA hit and NE screwgie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Euro Ensembles-sheared and weak...late late bloomer Looks about like we thought...2-4 inches maybe 3-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Better than another MA hit and NE screwgie. Looks about like we thought...2-4 inches maybe 3-6 I think a quick 2-4 or 3-6 at this point would be a huge win for all....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I think a quick 2-4 or 3-6 at this point would be a huge win for all....... That's all we need to get some snow cover down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I am going to sit back and watch these model runs play out, We are outside of the useful range on some so i am not sweating them showing a surpressed scenario, They will come back NW over the next few days........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Phil agrees suppression is unlikely I do? I don't think I said anything....did I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I am going to sit back and watch these model runs play out, We are outside of the useful range on some so i am not sweating them showing a surpressed scenario, They will come back NW over the next few days........... i think everyone and their mom should be relaxed right now the overall pattern is looking better for cold......if you build it they will come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks about like we thought...2-4 inches maybe 3-6 Looks like the Ens want to run a Delmarva to GOM by way of BM Ens on the left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 i think everyone and their mom should be relaxed right now the overall pattern is looking better for cold......if you build it they will come. I love the fact that they continue hitting the cold coming into the NE, We will get our storms to come north with the cold air in here at some point in the next couple of weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks about like we thought...2-4 inches maybe 3-6 What are you talking about? lol. Where do you get these amounts and who is "we"? I have yet to see anyone put anything remotely close to numbers on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I do? I don't think I said anything....did I? I just wanted to get you into the discussion since you were lurking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 What are you talking about? lol. Where do you get these amounts and who is "we"? I have yet to see anyone put anything remotely close to numbers on the table. By looking at the Euro ensemble mean and pulling the concensus data from them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like the Ens want to run a Delmarva to GOM by way of BM Ens on the left Yeah that's what I was looking at. A track like that even with a weak low and most of SNE is looking at a light - maybe moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Looks like the Ens want to run a Delmarva to GOM by way of BM Ens on the left Steve--is that Dec 5-6 or 9? I can't read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 By looking at the Euro ensemble mean and pulling the concensus data from them Do you have access to QPF or something? Or is this just from looking at the different 24 hour surface low pressure progs? I'm not saying I don't agree... it just seems a little early to be talking amounts when the chance for snow is probably like 30% or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 That would be a great track here for snow........... Great for points east of the Ct River and NE. Bridgeton would be a fun place to be. 34.1/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Steve--is that Dec 5-6 or 9? I can't read it. 5/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 This thread is a disaster. I'm going to have to start a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well the euro ensembles were a little more promising, but verbatim squash the low. It does look like at the end of the run, the -nao goes bye bye. However, we still sort of have a -epo and I wonder if the cold will have an easier time coming east...especially with a ridge in the sw, preventing the se ridge from building. With the big nao block gone....so long as we don't have a huge se ridge...I think cross polar flow could be established further east, but probably will only get so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Well the euro ensembles were a little more promising, but verbatim squash the low. It does look like at the end of the run, the -nao goes bye bye. However, we still sort of have a -epo and I wonder if the cold will have an easier time coming east...especially with a ridge in the sw, preventing the se ridge from building. With the big nao block gone....so long as we don't have a huge se ridge...I think cross polar flow could be established further east, but probably will only get so far. I wonder if we get a brief moderation after the 10th or so and then back into a colder pattern. Ensembles hinted at a brief moderation, but it was obviously quite smoothed on the ens mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 I wonder if we get a brief moderation after the 10th or so and then back into a colder pattern. Ensembles hinted at a brief moderation, but it was obviously quite smoothed on the ens mean. Yeah maybe. Even the Canadian ensembles tried to show another shot of colder air heading se from the Great Lakes at the end of the run. I don't think it's a bad thing to have the nao go neutral with the epo staying somewhat negative and ridging in the southwest. I think a pattern like that would allow all that cold to come a little further east, but the problem is that I'm not sure how stable that pattern could be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 28, 2010 Share Posted November 28, 2010 Just picture us all starting out slow and then more heads bop as we get rolling and getting closer to the snow falling ..we go from a few head bobs..to Wiz and Ray up on the seats dancing, shaking ass, and the whole bus pumping fists Jeez, What a nice picture in my head of that........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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