Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 This post goes against everything I believe in... BUT if you extrapolate the 180 hr GGEM you can see that storm turning into a huge bomb off the NE coast. I'd like to see more northern stream involvement seriously though, it is getting interesting if not commical already how we are collectively peering over the charts and routinely being greeted upon successive guidance runs ways by which the atmosphere will fail to produce what it is that collectively everybody really wants: snow. Heh, what's actually happening is that one run shows a chance, then obliterates it on its next immediate run, while a different model then argues for a chance ...summarily to obliterate that one. Back to the GGEM - 'maybe it will be this one', dropped on the next run? All the while, each offering was different amid an overall similar regime of -PNA/-NAO proving to be a nightmare to model performance. No middle and extended range is ever going to be THAT great given the current state of the art in modelling, but this is REALLY bad. I digress.. . The 12z CMC is actually not a bad continuity off the 00z - the 00z just had slightly more phasing earlier on, and that drove the system in whole west of New England. Here, we see less phased solution - or perhaps as Will intimated, a later phase, which would time better for the locals. But, at the end of the day, BRAVO! We finally have a model that has a similar system across two whole runs - holy mosis I didn't think it possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 When I went to Montreal in 7th grade with my French class that's how the weather was the entire time we were there...was from Thursday-Sunday I think. It was basically cold and windy with snow showers basically on and off all day long and sometimes they would come down pretty heavy...it was pretty awesome. i was just tihnking about this Wiz... we have stretches where it snows every day, most days, but doesnt amount to much. personally, im kind of done with that, unless we have a significant snowpack we are adding too. its more of a nuisance to me otherwise. for example, its been like that in ottawa for the past week or so (i was just there for the holiday).....just nuisance underfoot stuff, even though the grass is visible everywhere. november sun doesnt do much on it so the slush just sits there all the time. its messy and id honestly rather just lurk in a snowstorm thread or get a snowstorm myself. this board has allowed me to change my views on how i enjoy snow, and enjoy snowstorms hundreds of mies away....im grateful for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I digress.. . The 12z CMC is actually not a bad continuity off the 00z - the 00z just had slightly more phasing earlier on, and that drove the system in whole west of New England. Here, we see less phased solution - or perhaps as Will intimated, a later phase, which would time better for the locals. But, at the end of the day, BRAVO! We finally have a model that has a similar system across two whole runs - holy mosis I didn't think it possible! Yep and the Euro showed something similar at 00z and if we can get it to follow on we will have 2 successive model runs from 2 different models in general agreement. This is quickly becoming the primary threat in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Looking at modeled surface temps. Most days AOB freezing near Boston beyond d7 at least here. Normal would be 10F more. Modifying for cold bias give me 5F. Yeah, this newer improved gfs should have less cold bias now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Interesting 5h day three Euro vort map, have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Interesting 5h day three Euro vort map, have to see what happens. What does "5h day three" mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What does "5h day three" mean? think he means day three H5 vorticity map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That's one ugly looking closed low over New England Saturday night on the Euro. Huge omega block/-NAO with that western closed low over NE is going to kill us. If the western closed low from the omega block was over Newfoundland and in a 50/50 position we'd be in much better shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 That first short wave on the Euro is pretty potent, its just too bad it has to run into a block from hell to squash it. That would probably be a very nice redeveloper event if the vortex wasn't planted so strongly over NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yeah, this newer improved gfs should have less cold bias now? It does. I wanted to mention that last night during the radio show but I was not signed in to blog talk radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The energy in the southwest gets hung up off the CA coast this run.. not going to phase that in so this is going to be all northern stream this run. And the northern stream is just going to get squashed by the 500mb low over the northeast. Maybe some kind of retrograde for NNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no shortage of cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no shortage of cold air Yup... a strong closed low sits and spins for days of cold, windy, cloudy afternoons. Awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 no shortage of cold air Atlantic domination in a strong Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yup... a strong closed low sits and spins for days of cold, windy, cloudy afternoons. Awesome! LOL. yeah and the next offshore low is just going to pinwheel in and reinforce it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 See what the ensembles have to say.. they were more progressive with the energy off CA than the op was last night. Could be the op is just digging that off the CA coast too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Yep and the Euro showed something similar at 00z and if we can get it to follow on we will have 2 successive model runs from 2 different models in general agreement. This is quickly becoming the primary threat in my mind. Well ... honestly I'm not all that optimistic. My statement was half born out of frustration for constant phantom systems ...all models being guilty of. Regarding the one you are talking about though; one thing I know is that the CMC has a high-amplitude bias out in time - it could easily be just too strong with that system. In fact, until the NAO relaxes it is going to be hard to get a S/W strong enough to operate on the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 What does euro have for Monday night for pats jets.. hopefully its windy cause Sanchez sucks in the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Atlantic domination in a strong Nina. Strong -NAO/-AO FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Strong -NAO/-AO FTW FTL on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 FTL on this run. Tell that vort lobe at 500mb near James Bay at 174 hours to split off and merge with the southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
millpondwx Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 ECM ==> Days of bitter wind chills and wind-blown ..... dust Yea, I know its only Nov. 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 FTL on this run. yeah this is just a perpetual tap of cP air. most likely a few weak kinks/sws embedded in the flow to kick off a flurry every now and then but otherwise dry and quite cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 The GFS ensembles are pretty hilarious with the southern stream energy.. by 126 hours some of them have it over land in southern CA while some others have it over 1000 miles offshore. Models never seem to handle energy in that area well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Atlantic domination in a strong Nina. We laugh but in way couldn't you see this coming ...? There has been an on-going solar minimum that really correlates well with -AOs.. Since the NAO overlays part of that domain, that's a heavy hand there. There is that, and the AMO has flipped signs and continues to descend. These two factors are pointing toward a -AO/-NAO bias...probably not just last year and this year, but perhaps spanning a decade if you believe Joe D'Aleo and other scientists... It's a factorization that seems to be the best fit for explaining last years phenom -NAO (M/A folk were very blessed) and just as valued in my opinion as a baser forecast foundation from which one can build upon for this season. I see no particular reason why the AO needs to be positive this year; although I did read somewhere that AAO tends to precede the AO, but if that is all there is to refute I need more than that. Anyway, a lot of the seasonal forecasts I have seen yet again...year after year after year, churn out with little reasoning contained demonstrating much contribution from the polar field indices and it just boggles the mind. Why not? Did we honestly think the Pacific would take cart blanche over all with those leading polar indicators in play?? That would be very unwise. We can't in one breath say that the AO has too many moments of indirection from the ENSO, and then not include it as a unique influencer - that is bad logic, to mention the NAO, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 FTL on this run. True dat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 yeah this is just a perpetual tap of cP air. most likely a few weak kinks/sws embedded in the flow to kick off a flurry every now and then but otherwise dry and quite cold. Cold with NW winds and a flurry or 2 here, I'm not worried in the least, We get the lakes and ground to freeze instead of mudholes and a slushfest on the ponds and lakes......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Ohhhh.... flurries next Wednesday! Wagons north to Jay Peak this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 We laugh but in way couldn't you see this coming ...? There has been an on-going solar minimum that really correlates well with -AOs.. Since the NAO overlays part of that domain, that's a heavy hand there. There is that, and the AMO has flipped signs and continues to descend. These two factors are pointing toward a -AO/-NAO bias...probably not just last year and this year, but perhaps spanning a decade if you believe Joe D'Aleo and other scientists... It's a factorization that seems to be the best fit for explaining last years phenom -NAO (M/A folk were very blessed) and just as valued in my opinion as a baser forecast foundation from which one can build upon for this season. I see no particular reason why the AO needs to be positive this year; although I did read somewhere that AAO tends to precede the AO, but if that is all there is to refute I need more than that. Anyway, a lot of the seasonal forecasts I have seen yet again...year after year after year, churn out with little reasoning contained demonstrating much contribution from the polar field indices and it just boggles the mind. Why not? Did we honestly think the Pacific would take cart blanche over all with those leading polar indicators in play?? That would be very unwise. We can't in one breath say that the AO has too many moments of indirection from the ENSO, and then not include it as a unique influencer - that is bad logic, to mention the NAO, too. Joe D'Aleo is an idiot as far as I'm concerned for a lot of other reasons. We did have a -QBO last year so I think it remains to be seen whether the prolonged solar minimum will begin to affect the polar fields in a +QBO as well, although this is certainly an interesting start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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