Threat Thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

[skierinvermont]

It looks to me like the 00z Euro really slows down S/W #2 and nearly phases with some energy from the southwest 12/8-9. I think this is the same s/w the GFS is rotating into the 500mb low by 12/7 but it might be a different one. Looks like the cmc is doing the same thing as the euro.

[CoastalWx]

Don't we do that anyway?

Yeah, but I mean something like this keeps us on our toes more. It's not like we have two weeks of furnace weather.

[Baroclinic Zone]

[Tropopause_Fold]

At least we get a 300 hour hit on the GFS and the northern New England mountains get some great upslope.

I have to see it well be disappointing to see 2 weeks of cold go to waste if we can't get a good snow event out of it... at least there's potential... but realizing that may be a tough proposition.

yeah they probably won't see the classic dump of snow they might want but you have to think the traditional w/nw facing spots make out pretty well. that, plus plenty of cold should jump start the ski season nicely for most of NNE.

hopefully we aren't in a position where things go dry and cold for too long. personally, i like that more than dry and warm but would be nice to at least sneak out some kind of event, regardless of size.

12z gefs mean is a less robust with the blocking regime in the long range compared to its op. counterpart.

[ORH_wxman]

The GGEM is actually retrograding the NNE vortex into the southern s/w and would likely phase the two in the next couple frames. That would probably be a huge storm for the entire east coast.

[Baroclinic Zone]

The GGEM is actually retrograding the NNE vortex into the southern s/w and would likely phase the two in the next couple frames. That would probably be a huge storm for the entire east coast.

Agreed.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like 12/19/09

[free_man]

5F subnormal to me is pretty cold in December and that's what is being depicted after d5.

Where did you get that?  

[CoastalWx]

The gfs ensembles must see something as well because the mean goes from way east, and jumps from near 60/40 to 65/40 in 12 hours. Must be some members further west after hr 120.

[ORH_wxman]

Where did you get that?

It has like -6C to -12C 850s over our area for nearly the entire run with maybe a few brief exceptions. That's well below climo for the first half of December. Climo is closer to -3C or so.

[weatherwiz]

The GGEM is actually retrograding the NNE vortex into the southern s/w and would likely phase the two in the next couple frames. That would probably be a huge storm for the entire east coast.

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

[ORH_wxman]

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

No. We're talking 180h out.

[Alpha5]

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

I heard its worse than the DGEX

[snowNH]

If nothing it looks good at 500mb lol

[weatherwiz]

No. We're talking 180h out.

All I need to know.

[weatherwiz]

I heard its worse than the DGEX

Ouch.

I'll just stick with GFS/Euro/ensembles

[skierinvermont]

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

But it is showing something fairly similar to the Euro at 500. The polar jet phases with a southern s/w over the central plains and then amplifies. It just amplifies more on the ggem and phases in the retrograding low over the northeast, while the Euro amplifies it less and squashes it with the retrograding low, although it still manages a 995mb off the Carolinas. Good thing is they are both slower with S/W #2 and phasing it with some energy from the southwest, which I think has a much better chance at giving us snow than the GFS evolution which is faster with s/w #2 and doesn't phase it with the energy from the southwest. I think it's good the Euro and GGEM are in agreement on this, GFS out to lunch hopefully. You can see the southwest energy over the texas panhandle at hr 168 on the GFS after it has missed the phase with the polar jet energy over KY and NC.

[moneypitmike]

How decent is the GGEM? Is it fairly good at this time range?

When you're looking for the next 8-12 day threat, anything looks good.

38.7/33

[mahk_webstah]

Miller A style redevelpment along the coast? or supression city due to the blocking? actually blocking over maine/atl canada seems to be relaxing a bit. is a piece of energy diving in from the midwest?

totally amateur here as is obvious.

[CT Rain]

This post goes against everything I believe in...

BUT

if you extrapolate the 180 hr GGEM you can see that storm turning into a huge bomb off the NE coast.

[ORH_wxman]

This post goes against everything I believe in...

BUT

if you extrapolate the 180 hr GGEM you can see that storm turning into a huge bomb off the NE coast.

Yeah it would start making a pretty good turn to the left if we could see another frame or two. The northern vortex is clearly phasing some energy into the main s/w. Fun solution to look at even though its in fantasy land.

[OSUmetstud]

The 12z UKMET basically dampens out the shortwave to nil...and uses it to reinforce the large upper level low in the Gulf of Maine through 144 hours.

Edit: There's some nice shortwave energy over New Mexico at 144 hours which would likely become the next system.

[moneypitmike]

This post goes against everything I believe in...

BUT

if you extrapolate the 180 hr GGEM you can see that storm turning into a huge bomb off the NE coast.

Is there an emoticon of "grasping at straws"? lol

[Baroclinic Zone]

The 12z UKMET basically dampens out the shortwave to nil...and uses it to reinforce the large upper level low in the Gulf of Maine through 144 hours.

Edit: There's some nice shortwave energy over New Mexico at 144 hours which would likely become the next system.

I'm losing my confidence in the first shortwave. Models today seem to be crushing the initial wave and focusing on the follow-up.

[weathafella]

Where did you get that?

Looking at modeled surface temps. Most days AOB freezing near Boston beyond d7 at least here. Normal would be 10F more. Modifying for cold bias give me 5F.

[Damage In Tolland]

I'm losing my confidence in the first shortwave. Models today seem to be crushing the initial wave and focusing on the follow-up.

Just remember 2-4 or 3-6 with the early week event..ULL/Sw..whatever you want to call it

[CoastalWx]

I'm losing my confidence in the first shortwave. Models today seem to be crushing the initial wave and focusing on the follow-up.

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

[CoastalWx]

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

It's still possible the first one could produce something, but that block is just so strong. Stranger things have happened though..maybe we get a light event or something..who knows.

[Baroclinic Zone]

It's usually one or the other with these. If the first one craps out, it definitely could allow for the second s/w to really amplify, even without the Canadian solution of phasing the PV into it.

Yeah, that's one I made the comment. There seems to be a clear trend in the 12z runs thus far. Euro should be rolling out now so I guess that will be telling.