Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Previous storm discussion thread. http://www.americanw...o-beam-part-iv/ Well models seem to be locking in to a substantial Winter Storm for the majority of SNE/CNE. The storm will bring heavy snows to CNE/SNE down to the Pike with little to no mixed precip. South of there there will some warm air intrusion that will bring a mixed bag of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain. Round 1 starts early morning tomorrow in CT and will work it's way up into the Boston Metro area around dawn. This first batch should be mostly in the form of snow but some sleet could mix in in southern areas. Precip. winds down in the afternoon and there will be lull before the bigger event starts overnight and goes right on through Wednesday ending overnight. Here is the latest NWS snowfall map for the Burlington, Albany, Taunton , Gray, and Upton forecast areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 are there some purples missing in NE Mass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Chicago... ‘Life-threatening’ blizzard on its way to Chicago area FROM SUN-TIMES MEDIA WIRE Jan 31, 2011 06:39PM http://napervillesun.suntimes.com/news/3585097-418/lake-snow-area-service-weather.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Previous storm discussion thread. http://www.americanw...o-beam-part-iv/ Well models seem to be locking in to a substantial Winter Storm for the majority of SNE/CNE. The storm will bring heavy snows to CNE/SNE down to the Pike with little to no mixed precip. South of there there will some warm air intrusion that will bring a mixed bag of snow/sleet/freezing rain/rain. Round 1 starts early morning tomorrow in CT and will work it's way up into the Boston Metro area around dawn. This first batch should be mostly in the form of snow but some sleet could mix in in southern areas. Precip. winds down in the afternoon and there will be lull before the bigger event starts overnight and goes right on through Wednesday ending overnight. Here is the latest NWS snowfall map for the Albany, Taunton , Gray, and Upton forecast areas. No BTV mention? Are we not in New England, lol. 12-20" in the forecast by BTV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ahh ok you already posted the ALY map.... Seems a little extreme to me, but I'd take it if it verified..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2011 Author Share Posted February 1, 2011 No BTV mention? Are we not in New England, lol. 12-20" in the forecast by BTV. Got it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 barocylclinic_instability suggested in the Central thread that the most amped up models may very well be right with the main low out west. Anyone want to chime im on if that has any significant impact here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 No BTV mention? Are we not in New England, lol. 12-20" in the forecast by BTV. That sounds pretty high given that this is a Central and Southern New England Storm. Yes, there will be a fairly broad shield of precipitation, but the brunt of that should be somewhat south of you. Only uplift from the higher elevations and high ratios can deliver those amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we ran out of firewood...and our guy can't get to his pile because it's snowed under...and he couldn't find anyone else to buy from...so I am SOL, lalala lock it up I loose power!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That sounds pretty high given that this is a central and southern New England Storm. Yes, there will be a fairly broad shield of precipitation but the brunt of that should be somewhat south of you. Only uplift from higher elevations and ratios can deliver those amounts. .75-1.1" qpf? with temps not breaking 12 degrees? easily a foot...higher elavations could surpass 20" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we ran out of firewood...and our guy can't get to his pile because it's snowed under...and he couldn't find anyone else to buy from...so I am SOL, lalala lock it up I loose power!!! Your house should be pretty well insulated by the 16-18" of dense snow on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Kev, ensembles were a little cooler, but not a fan of the depiction, for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 barocylclinic_instability suggested in the Central thread that the most amped up models may very well be right with the main low out west. Anyone want to chime im on if that has any significant impact here? he believes the low will be amped and deeper based on current analysis if that occurs, it will increase the risk of dry slotting IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 40/70 Benchmark, on 31 January 2011 - 07:41 PM, said: Steve, what would you say for mby....2 day total.... 18+ if you get in the fluff stuff Thursday you break 20 JMHO I made a jerry rigged roof rake today out of 2*4, 1*10 , 8 foot 1inch dowel tied and super taped to my twig cutter fully extended 21 feet, worked great, got the first two feet of the roof but man completely wiped me out. Hundreds of people doing the same. I saw a lady about 45 on her roof! Some roofs in Sterling on the North side have 3 feet holding about 6 inches of water, mine had 2 feet easy, well the last two feet doesn't anymore, oh and then I had to help my sister in law move, now I can't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 This doesn't make any sense. That's like saying "when the precip shuts off it means its already passed us...so its not a big deal"...the fast dryslot is what could inhibit very large totals. Its going to snow like hell (where its cold enough) from that LLJ forcing so much lift, but if it shuts off after 6 hours, then 20" is going to be very hard to achieve. If round 1 can over achieve, I would feel better about it...or if we could snow like hell for 10 hours vs 6. Unless I'm wrong here, when looking at the 700mb RH field by the time the area of very dry RH gets to us the bulk of the moisture is already out of the region...and it looks like it tries to fill in some anyways as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 OT: The city said it had removed more than 37,000 tons of snow from city streets, or 2,661 truckloads, during the weekend, taking it to six "snow farms" across the city. http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/2011/01/no_rest_for_the_1.html?p1=News_links Hmm where are these 6 snow farms of 37,000 TONS of snow... wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 .75-1.1" qpf? with temps not breaking 12 degrees? easily a foot...higher elavations could surpass 20" That depends on which model you believe. GFS has a bias of being too broad. NAM area coverage of the shield seems more reasonable at this stage. Low Dewpoints could eat the snow that is trying to saturate the layer. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 That sounds pretty high given that this is a central and southern New England Storm. Yes, there will be a fairly broad shield of precipitation but the brunt of that should be somewhat south of you. Only uplift from higher elevations and ratios can deliver those amounts. BTV will do well.The NAM banding site has decent frontogenesis up here for both systems in the H6-H8 layer. I think all 3 phases (Tue appetizer, Wed thump, and then the Wed night fluff topping) could impress. Those who measure and clear every 6hrs up here are going to come in with much higher totals than the next door neighbor who makes his first measurement Thu morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we ran out of firewood...and our guy can't get to his pile because it's snowed under...and he couldn't find anyone else to buy from...so I am SOL, lalala lock it up I loose power!!! Find a retailer of "Bio Blocks". Compressed chipped wood. Cost per ton is roughly equivalent to pellets. Not ideal, but it will get you through in a pinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 we ran out of firewood...and our guy can't get to his pile because it's snowed under...and he couldn't find anyone else to buy from...so I am SOL, lalala lock it up I loose power!!! u got a kitchen table made out of wood? lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Did the ECM show any love for ENY with the Saturday system? I see the gfs is a narrow miss.... Kev, ensembles were a little cooler, but not a fan of the depiction, for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 are there some purples missing in NE Mass? Yea, they trimmed it because they were too high....like I have been saying all day...they may end up trimming a couple of more inches off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well ponder this. If BOS gets 6+, seemingly a lock at this point, it will be the 5th storm of that magnitude in 35 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Did the ECM show any love for ENY with the Saturday system? I see the gfs is a narrow miss.... yeah it did dont know the total amount but qpf was almost to I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 he believes the low will be amped and deeper based on current analysis if that occurs, it will increase the risk of dry slotting IMO NBD imo....it will just confirm what we already knew....that we aren't getting 20"+ from a swfe. No complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 BTV will do well. The NAM banding site has decent frontogenesis up here for both systems in the H6-H8 layer. I think all 3 phases (Tue appetizer, Wed thump, and then the Wed night fluff topping) could impress. Those who measure and clear every 6hrs up here are going to come in with much higher totals than the next door neighbor who makes his first measurement Thu morning. Brian, whats your take on all of VT, NH, and SW ME? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeVries Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Well ponder this. If BOS gets 6+, seemingly a lock at this point, it will be the 5th storm of that magnitude in 35 days. A once per week average...reminds me of the 95/96 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vttaconics Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 yeah it did dont know the total amount but qpf was almost to I-81 .5- .75" up to about Plattsburgh for Saturday on the 12z.... from what I could tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 Ahh Thx ..maybe it will be an ENY/VT/Quebec storm.... ...as opposed to this current W to E snow shield. yeah it did dont know the total amount but qpf was almost to I-81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 1, 2011 Share Posted February 1, 2011 18z looking pretty nice for the area. Probably warm at 0z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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