Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 not trying to rain on the parade here, id wait for the 18z GFS to confirm it but could be a great example of this http://www.americanw...tward-too-slow/ I agree 100% that the 18z NAM just had a phase shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 IMHO, taking the 18Z NAM verbatim is likened too expecting to win the Publishers Clearinghouse sweepstakes because you mailed the form in. The great thing about having so many weather models available now is that you can always find one run of a model that crushes you. I joke around by posting the JMA or ETA at times, but it's always out of entertainment value. I wonder how the CRAS looks today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The great thing about having so many weather models available now is that you can always find one run of a model that crushes you. I joke around by posting the JMA or ETA at times, but it's always out of entertainment value. I wonder how the CRAS looks today. And it's amazing the amount of weather weenies who will bash you if you say the 18z NAM and it's silly solution looks overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol...this forum is like General Hospital sometimes. yeah it's comical. i'd love for that run to verify...and i agree with the general consensus that the end game will be colder than the warmer solutions we see...but i have a hard time believing i'm going to get the 12" the 18z nam shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree 100% that the 18z NAM just had a phase shift. In that link BaroclinicInstability referred to phasing, or timing differences being falsely depicted by the nam... Is there any phasing going on here that we can see in our neck of the woods? Is it getting overly amped up? All Im seeing is at 84 hrs a 1000 mb low just east of chatham.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And it's amazing the amount of weather weenies who will bash you if you say the 18z NAM and it's silly solution looks overdone. I probably get almost 20'' of high-ratio fluff altogether, but it still seems extremely silly. Snow on the South Shore and Cape from a SWFE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 And it's amazing the amount of weather weenies who will bash you if you say the 18z NAM and it's silly solution looks overdone. Overdone in terms of what.. qpf? Position of the low? The low strength is the same as 12z, but the position is a little south... Id hardly call that overdone.. Silly, perhaps, but hardly over done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCloser24 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey Ryan, how much ice verbatim for western ct on the 18z nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I probably get almost 20'' of high-ratio fluff altogether, but it still seems extremely silly. Snow on the South Shore and Cape from a SWFE? of course. we do OK (relatively speaking) in the traditional SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I agree 100% that the 18z NAM just had a phase shift. I'm not able to read all the pages just stopped for dinner with the munchkins but the nam I think will be right with a more pronounced system up first that drops the cold air south. Nam has crazy ideas and will not be exactly right but this storm will be colder and it's Probably on the right track again IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shadow Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 ok looks NICE hahaha but really how much snow can mother nature dump on ct this would be history so i will go with RAIN for this one on wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :axe: head hurt? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I'm not able to read all the pages just stopped for dinner with the munchkins but the nam I think will be right with a more pronounced system up first that drops the cold air south. Nam has crazy ideas and will not be exactly right but this storm will be colder and it's Probably on the right track again IMO The NAM starts blowing this synoptically early. We need some RUC trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 nam clown looks to give me about 16 non serious inches. gfs should catch on by 0z ART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 In that link BaroclinicInstability referred to phasing, or timing differences being falsely depicted by the nam... Is there any phasing going on here that we can see in our neck of the woods? Is it getting overly amped up? All Im seeing is at 84 hrs a 1000 mb low just east of chatham.. It's not a storm phasing issue. The model will sometimes "phase shift" west. Compare these 2 images side my side and you can see the difference in the 500mb heights. The 18z NAM's are shifted westward compared to the 12z. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam500mbHGHTNA048.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znam500mbHGHTNA054.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Locked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Hey Ryan, how much ice verbatim for western ct on the 18z nam? 0-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Locked? About 50-75 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Locked? seasonal trend AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 The NAM's gonna get a beating if its right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 lol...this forum is like General Hospital sometimes. I tell my wife that this place is just like a soap opera. Always unexpected plot twists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 18Z Nam looks all snow for this area, no mixing issues I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 :lmao: :lmao: They never fail to amuse, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 I just hope we can get an all out snow solution from this and not have to deal with any major icing issues, if we get accumulating snows on top of what we already have then have to deal with freezing rain it might get very ugly across parts of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 c'mon man. its the 18z nam. hasnt had a good event since jan 12. sucked the big one recently. anddd its vs. every other peice of guidance (including the srefs) actually did the NAM not have the 2 piece event we just had first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 6-12 from round 1 on the NAM highest amts south Congrats, on the NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Eh, if we trend colder we trend toward sleet IMO. The in me wants ZR if not snow. good fook the ice, but the Nam is all snow for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 Thai for dinner? Window table? With an umbrella in my drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted January 30, 2011 Share Posted January 30, 2011 actually did the NAM not have the 2 piece event we just had first? Yeah, the NAM might be wrong here, but it was indeed one of the first models to predict the two piece event.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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