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Epic winter signal continues to beam, part II

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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So let me get this straight? We have the next storm in the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. Then the Euro and the other globals are hinting at a couple more storms. In the D8 and D10 timeframes?

outright interpretation of the Euro - Big icing event storm 1; snow to rain and roof implosions storm 2 over next weekend (but I suspect that trends colder); fast moving open wave moderate snow threat D10.

Buuut, you can't take these run verbatim obviously.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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NCEP also continuing with the theme of a continental mauler reeking havoc from the middle MV latitudes to the OV-NE states. Calling for more snow in that - I concur. The degree of confluence N coupled with in situ polar/arctic established high will win that battle every time. I think the Euro capitulates eventually...

Even the west biased GGEM is fully on board with a snowier profile along and N of 40N.

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Chrisrotary12

Chrisrotary12

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outright interpretation of the Euro - Big icing event storm 1; snow to rain and roof implosions storm 2 over next weekend (but I suspect that trends colder); fast moving open wave moderate snow threat D10.

Buuut, you can't take these run verbatim obviously.

Ya def not set in stone by any means. But the shear fact that it is presenting us with the possibility of 3 major storm systems is fun, exciting, and a little scary.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I miss Walter Drag.

Eh, I suppose it is worth it to be conservative most of the time. But just the same, we have a minimum of 20" of median snow pack, not enough melt, a developing roof collapse issue emerging (factually), and the 12z runs do this? Meanwhile, our own AFD's 1pm statement has a cutesy headline: " * A LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE MORE WINTRY WEATHER AROUND MID WEEK. "

Whether they intend to or not, that is a remarkable understatement. Whether they intend to or not, I think that "spin" (for lack of better word - though may be harsh to put it that way) really belies what could be a very serious matter heading onward.

Okay, worst case scenario: 1 to 1.5" accretion of ice over a widespread area, flounders trees and majorly disrupts power infrastructure. Heavily narrowed roads and antecedent snow pack makes it a Herculean effort of utility crews, such that mere 2 to 3 days later a massive DGEXian blizzard strikes with 18-24" of wind-whipped incursion on still ice-suspended trees and powerlines heading into next weekend. That's worst case scenario, but frankly ...heh, seasonal trend has been to over-produce at least excuse imaginable - I wouldn't want to phuck with understating to civilians in harm's way.

I don't mean they need to be histrionic - that's equally as detrimental. But that statement in that AFD sounds like Bamby snow in an era where we are up to our hilts and in trouble in a lot of places due to unmitigated lack of meaning warm recoveries. Why not go with *AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE MAY BRING HIGH IMPACT CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MID-WEEK; it is more factually what we are looking at here, I think, and doesn't exaggerate anything unnecessarily - while also giving civilians more to consider, which they logistically need to do with this.

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mattb65

mattb65

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Knew we'd torch today at 9am when we were 30 with the sun out (posted in the banter thread but i guess this is also the banter thread arrowheadsmiley.png)

Tip - I think this pattern is pretty much your infrastructure testing set of snow storms for boston. I was driving around today in the city for various things and the city can't really handle another 12"+ storm much less multiple threats. The torch today is going to help quite a bit with at least softening the snow for them to move it around but as soon as the hard freeze hits, it's going to be locked in for a while.

As an aside, has there ever been a major ZR storm for boston, seems we're too close to the ocean and always seem to warm just above freezing in the city whereas the 128 corrider and west could stay cold enough.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Knew we'd torch today at 9am when we were 30 with the sun out (posted in the banter thread but i guess this is also the banter thread arrowheadsmiley.png)

Tip - I think this pattern is pretty much your infrastructure testing set of snow storms for boston. I was driving around today in the city for various things and the city can't really handle another 12"+ storm much less multiple threats. The torch today is going to help quite a bit with at least softening the snow for them to move it around but as soon as the hard freeze hits, it's going to be locked in for a while. Has there ever been a major ZR storm for boston, seems we're too close to the ocean and always seem to warm just above freezing in the city whereas the 128 corrider and west could stay cold enough.

Yea, it is difficult to get a meaningful icing event E and S of I-95... Even when a decent icing event is happening for much of the region, you tend to find a coastal front with ENE winds at 35F air near I-95, with N drain at 29 or 30 in west of the boundary where the icing and pellets are taking place.

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MainePhotog

MainePhotog

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I miss Walter Drag.

Eh, I suppose it is worth it to be conservative most of the time. But just the same, we have a minimum of 20" of median snow pack, not enough melt, a developing roof collapse issue emerging (factually), and the 12z runs do this? Meanwhile, our own AFD's 1pm statement has a cutesy headline: " * A LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE MORE WINTRY WEATHER AROUND MID WEEK. "

Whether they intend to or not, that is a remarkable understatement. Whether they intend to or not, I think that "spin" (for lack of better word - though may be harsh to put it that way) really belies what could be a very serious matter heading onward.

Okay, worst case scenario: 1 to 1.5" accretion of ice over a widespread area, flounders trees and majorly disrupts power infrastructure. Heavily narrowed roads and antecedent snow pack makes it a Herculean effort of utility crews, such that mere 2 to 3 days later a massive DGEXian blizzard strikes with 18-24" of wind-whipped incursion on still ice-suspended trees and powerlines heading into next weekend. That's worst case scenario, but frankly ...heh, seasonal trend has been to over-produce at least excuse imaginable - I wouldn't want to phuck with understating to civilians in harm's way.

I don't mean they need to be histrionic - that's equally as detrimental. But that statement in that AFD sounds like Bamby snow in an era where we are up to our hilts and in trouble in a lot of places due to unmitigated lack of meaning warm recoveries. Why not go with *AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE MAY BRING HIGH IMPACT CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MID-WEEK; it is more factually what we are looking at here, I think, and doesn't exaggerate anything unnecessarily - while also giving civilians more to consider, which they logistically need to do with this.

I agree whole heartily with your statement! Folks tend to become complacent and if this AFD were worded as such as you suggest, maybe some would begin to think that the roof needs cleaned off before another major storm comes.

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moneypitmike

moneypitmike

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I miss Walter Drag.

Eh, I suppose it is worth it to be conservative most of the time. But just the same, we have a minimum of 20" of median snow pack, not enough melt, a developing roof collapse issue emerging (factually), and the 12z runs do this? Meanwhile, our own AFD's 1pm statement has a cutesy headline: " * A LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE MORE WINTRY WEATHER AROUND MID WEEK. "

Whether they intend to or not, that is a remarkable understatement. Whether they intend to or not, I think that "spin" (for lack of better word - though may be harsh to put it that way) really belies what could be a very serious matter heading onward.

Okay, worst case scenario: 1 to 1.5" accretion of ice over a widespread area, flounders trees and majorly disrupts power infrastructure. Heavily narrowed roads and antecedent snow pack makes it a Herculean effort of utility crews, such that mere 2 to 3 days later a massive DGEXian blizzard strikes with 18-24" of wind-whipped incursion on still ice-suspended trees and powerlines heading into next weekend. That's worst case scenario, but frankly ...heh, seasonal trend has been to over-produce at least excuse imaginable - I wouldn't want to phuck with understating to civilians in harm's way.

I don't mean they need to be histrionic - that's equally as detrimental. But that statement in that AFD sounds like Bamby snow in an era where we are up to our hilts and in trouble in a lot of places due to unmitigated lack of meaning warm recoveries. Why not go with *AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE MAY BRING HIGH IMPACT CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MID-WEEK; it is more factually what we are looking at here, I think, and doesn't exaggerate anything unnecessarily - while also giving civilians more to consider, which they logistically need to do with this.

I agree with you to a point, John. I think where I diverge is that it's an event that's minimally 3 days out (plus, I htink that AFD point is from this morning). If this wording is there at the end of the day tomorrow, I'd feel a bit more strongly. Just my opinion.

Meanwhile, I hope it's straight snow and not ice.

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dabize

dabize

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I miss Walter Drag.

Eh, I suppose it is worth it to be conservative most of the time. But just the same, we have a minimum of 20" of median snow pack, not enough melt, a developing roof collapse issue emerging (factually), and the 12z runs do this? Meanwhile, our own AFD's 1pm statement has a cutesy headline: " * A LOW PRESSURE MAY BRING MORE MORE WINTRY WEATHER AROUND MID WEEK. "

Whether they intend to or not, that is a remarkable understatement. Whether they intend to or not, I think that "spin" (for lack of better word - though may be harsh to put it that way) really belies what could be a very serious matter heading onward.

Okay, worst case scenario: 1 to 1.5" accretion of ice over a widespread area, flounders trees and majorly disrupts power infrastructure. Heavily narrowed roads and antecedent snow pack makes it a Herculean effort of utility crews, such that mere 2 to 3 days later a massive DGEXian blizzard strikes with 18-24" of wind-whipped incursion on still ice-suspended trees and powerlines heading into next weekend. That's worst case scenario, but frankly ...heh, seasonal trend has been to over-produce at least excuse imaginable - I wouldn't want to phuck with understating to civilians in harm's way.

I don't mean they need to be histrionic - that's equally as detrimental. But that statement in that AFD sounds like Bamby snow in an era where we are up to our hilts and in trouble in a lot of places due to unmitigated lack of meaning warm recoveries. Why not go with *AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SNOW AND ICE MAY BRING HIGH IMPACT CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION MID-WEEK; it is more factually what we are looking at here, I think, and doesn't exaggerate anything unnecessarily - while also giving civilians more to consider, which they logistically need to do with this.

As of 1PM they had this (newly added)

CONTINUED MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

I really need a steer on planning lectures/quizzes Tuesday. If I'm gonna lose all of Wednesday, OK, but it would be REALLY nice to know if I'm losing Tuesday too.

Info from here helped me save last week, BTW - the place closed for the morning, but was open by noon, allowing me to steal an extra week and have labs the first week of classes. thumbsupsmileyanim.gif

Without that, the course would probably be sunk, considering what's coming down the pike........

Edit - HPC has updated and seems to accept the Tuesday stormlet for SNE - gives us .25-50

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif

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dendrite

dendrite

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Euro ensembles came in a little colder with a low track near ACK it seems. It looks like 0C 850 line doesn't get passed canal.

Nice run for you guys. Pretty much focuses on SNE for the overrunning on Tue and then the bigger hit for most of us on Wed. Will probably jackpots.
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