dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol...I should know better than to post the garbage models and ruffle the feathers of the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol...I should know better than to post the garbage models and ruffle the feathers of the weenies. Eh, They will get ruffled one way or the other anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol...I should know better than to post the garbage models and ruffle the feathers of the weenies. Fanning the flames. Hoping for to get a job at Accu-Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 lol...I should know better than to post the garbage models and ruffle the feathers of the weenies. Wait...so you're telling me the DGEX is a garbage model? This is news to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yikes. GFS initially relaxes the PV this run, but tries to phase a piece of it with the wave. This is really warm and amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ericnh Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 not liking the 18z gfs at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yikes, 18z GFS is further north this run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Pingers up to the Whites. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Yikes. GFS initially relaxes the PV this run, but tries to phase a piece of it with the wave. This is really warm and amped up. lol, We both had the same thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hello from gtg jerry says toss the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well I guess it's a good thing the GFS blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well I guess it's a good thing the GFS blows. chunks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z no big deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Hello from gtg jerry says toss the gfs Kevin must of put Jerry up to it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z no big deal I think the EC tried to do he same thing, but failed at the last minute and it was able to stay colder with the sfc low S of NE. Yeah...it's the 18z GFS and it seems the off-hour runs have been quirky lately so I wouldn't freak out over this run. There's probably a slim chance of something like that happening though...where a piece of the PV partially phases in. We're still a good 3-4 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Kevin must of put Jerry up to it.. Lol. Still not too bad for GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the EC tried to do he same thing, but failed at the last minute and it was able to stay colder with the sfc low S of NE. Yeah...it's the 18z GFS and it seems the off-hour runs have been quirky lately so I wouldn't freak out over this run. There's probably a slim chance of something like that happening though...where a piece of the PV partially phases in. We're still a good 3-4 days away. yeah, looks like rain for us, but anyone north of MA gets lots of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 yeah, looks like rain for us, but anyone north of MA gets lots of snow Seriously, congrats NNE - looks like next weekend might be a good one to hit the slopes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I think the EC tried to do he same thing, but failed at the last minute and it was able to stay colder with the sfc low S of NE. Yeah...it's the 18z GFS and it seems the off-hour runs have been quirky lately so I wouldn't freak out over this run. There's probably a slim chance of something like that happening though...where a piece of the PV partially phases in. We're still a good 3-4 days away. I feel like the appetizer snow is ruining the main event.. warming up temps and such.. this will suck if this is a rain/IP for CNE especially after the last storm... this is not good with seasonal NW trend looming at 48-72 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 I feel like the appetizer snow is ruining the main event.. warming up temps and such.. this will suck if this is a rain/IP for CNE especially after the last storm... this is not good with seasonal NW trend looming at 48-72 hours out Almost every model was colder at 12z. It's one 18z GFS run. Chillax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys happen to see Roger Smith's recent post on the main forum? Not all that far from HPC's thinking. So far I am seeing the trend expected from earlier comments and continue to believe that heavy snow will develop Feb 2-3 across most of PA, northern half of NJ and all of NY and New England. The frontal zone will be a tight temperature gradient with the arctic front about BWI-ACY and the modified polar front about DCA to Cape May NJ. This would argue for sleet and freezing rain in a narrow east-west band that might reach into the first tier of southern PA counties and across s.c NJ with heavy snow north of that. I would include NYC and LI in the heavy snow band looking at the wall of cold air to the north, the northeast wind flow and the pressure transfer late 2nd from PA/MD border to south of LI. Long way out yet, and expect the models to intensify this storm on a track very slightly south of the current 12z GFS. Looks like this one could generate 3-4 inch per hour snowfall rates with some thunder-snow and totals 20-30 inches not out of the question in parts of central to eastern PA, northern NJ, metro NYC, LI, CT to 15-20 inches se MA (due to shorter duration more than intensity). Meso-scale banding from Long Island Sound across NYC into northern NJ may be the jackpot for amounts in this storm. If pressure drops much lower than progged, we could see 40-60 mph winds generated at height of the storm, on current models would say 30-45 mph. Would expect frequent thunder-snow reports in the NYC region night of Feb 2-3. Another area to watch for very heavy snow would be Hamilton-Niagara in southern Ontario as intense cold in strong northeast flow generates heavy lake enhancement of what would otherwise be 3-5 inches towards 15-25 inches At an earlier stage Chicago to Milwaukee could be seeing considerable lake enhancement also, with bitterly cold air mass in place, could increase roughly similar scale to above.. Same effect less potent in northwest OH (due to frozen surfaces of Lake Erie) but this may merely blend into the synoptic scale which will be heavier to south anyway. Saginaw Bay could see the northeast wind lake enhancement spreading into s/c MI for an extra 3-5 inches there. Parts of western NY could pick up some of this lake enhancement too, as winds turn more northerly. Synoptic scale snowfall likely to be about 8-12 inches in SYR-ALB trending down to 3-5 in northern NY. Should also mention PIT with the potential to see 18-24 inches of snow on the current track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys happen to see Roger Smith's recent post on the main forum? Not all that far from HPC's thinking. Anyone throwing out 20-30" this far out gets a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 You guys happen to see Roger Smith's recent post on the main forum? Not all that far from HPC's thinking. From previous storms in the past 2 storms.. do not listen to anything Roger Smith says.. JMO and I bet other people feel the same way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 WESTERN FRANKLIN MA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ASHFIELD...CHARLEMONT...COLRAIN... SHELBURNE 330 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 . .TUESDAY...SNOW LIKELY. COLD WITH HIGHS AROUND 20. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. .TUESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY...SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LIKELY. COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 20S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 70 PERCENT. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SNOW LIKELY. LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT. Would seem like zr would be mininmal at this point in GC. I'd expect with those highs in the lower 20's, there will be a tendancy for anything that does melt on the way down would refreeze before getting to ground level. Probalby more of a concern further east and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Well, dug out 6ft from base of foundation around entire house, also dug 4 paths in front of house and on south side for water to evacuate the yard, and sub pump is attached and ready to go. Hope it does not come down to that, but at least now I am ready. Climo says snow to rain down this way, but this year anything is possible. If I had to guess, primary to Charleston WV with a weak secondary cutting up the canal. GC up to the Greens cash in big, snow to ice for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Anyone throwing out 20-30" this far out gets a Don't know anything about that roger smith guy but that was a triple bunner if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 From Box's AFD: SO THE PRESENT FCST THINKING IS THIS...PREV FCST EXPERIENCE AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY INCLUDED...THE GEM MDL SOLN SEEMS MORE REASONABLE. FOR THE GOING FCST WILL BLEND THE TRIO OF MDL SOLNS...GEM/ECMWF/GFS... WITH MORE WEIGHT TOWARDS THE GEM. FROM SUCH THINKING THE PSBL OUTCOME IS THE FOLLOWING...STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE BEGINNING TUE MORN OF WARMER...HIGHER THETAE AIR...WILL LIFT NWD ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SFC WRM FRNT TUE MORN INTO WED NGT. ONSET MAY BE DELAYED TUE MORN BY THE COLDER AND DRIER LOW-MID LVL AIR IN ASSOC WITH THE RETREATING ARCTIC RIDGE. DRIER AIR MAY PREVENT SNOW ALOFT FROM REACHING THE GROUND. PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET...SNOW...AND FREEZING RAIN BETWEEN WED MORN INTO MIDDAY FOR INTERIOR LOCALES IN THE COASTAL PLAIN...MORE OR LESS RAIN FOR COASTAL COMMUNITIES ALONG THE SRN NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE...CAPE AND ISLANDS...CHANGING BACK OVER TO ALL SNOW INTO WED NGT. BEST DYNAMIC MID-LVL FORCING IN ASSOC WITH PASSING SFC LOW LOOKS PREVALENT AROUND THE WED NGT TIMEFRAME...SO THIS COULD BE THE TIMEFRAME OF HEAVIEST SNOWS TO THE NW OF THE SFC LOW. BUT AGAIN ATTENTION IS DESERVED TO THE LIKELIHOOD THAT GUIDANCE AND FCSTS WILL CHANGE IN ADVANCE OF THE STORM. FEEL A MEDIUM LVL OF CONFIDENCE IN GOING TRENDS...YET LOW CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF SFC FEATURES SUCH AS PRECIP TYPE AND TRANSITIONS. REFER TO THE SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND GEM. TOWARDS THE END OF THE PD...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH PRESSES INTO THE FCST RGN IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING STORM. ANOTHER ROUND OF BELOW Interesting, weighting cold. Guess this somewhat answers my question regarding anomalous cold situations and the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there another side that is more detailed than this? I thought I recall Will posting one. http://www.nohrsc.nw...5_Northeast.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 18z GEFS are pretty amped up too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2011 Share Posted January 29, 2011 Is there another side that is more detailed than this? I thought I recall Will posting one. http://www.nohrsc.nw...5_Northeast.jpg Nevermind, got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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