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Occasionally, we do get a colder month across the CONUS. This is the first several weeks of colder conditions since January. But these colder periods have been few and far between. So they tend to stand out when they occur and get more attention than the persistent warmth which has become the new normal. I will update the chart below when December data gets updated.

I think it has a warning ceiling.

Dew points really crashing up here in frozen mud land

Got some sleet right at the end of the precipitation in N Knox. .

Nah.

Clipper produced only m0.09" LE but even with mostly tiny flakes that modest moisture brought 1.4".

Can I change my tiebreaker from SBY 7.0" to LYH 9,000"? Thanks in advance.

I was up to 49 degrees last hour now dipped to 45. I've got a long way to go for any fun. Looking out over the ocean off the Outer Banks it's very dark.

Yep 2020-21 - 52.2" here in NW Chester County

Temp got up to 40.2 but is falling now, down to 38.8 with no precip yet. Wind is really gusty, strong CAA for those getting precip. Likely a very short transition time to snow. Hoping we can muster a coating here

Temperatures have crashed in the past couple hours from 33 degrees to 28 degrees in Charlottesville. Generally having some lighter rates (smaller dendrites I think) but still moderate intensity. Wonder if the roads will cave if we get back into some heavier rates like the Nam and HRRR suggest around 1pm.

They can, and when they do pop up, I think we know what areas will receive snow, and it likely won't be here. Winter has shown its cards, a continuation of a suppressed, hugger, or cutter pattern that has existed for the past 7 years (exception being 2021 and 2022). It's unfortunate, and at some point I'm sure we'll see some snow. But this is eerily similar to December 2022. Colder than normal, great looking pattern, and snow everywhere except for our region. And in a La Nina, if we have below average snow in December, it likely extends to rest of winter as well.

By midweek it will be congrats RDU or ILM, probably.

Early data in for Nov showing a near avg month (on the + side). Fall was very warm. 5 & 10 yr charts shown respectively.

The cold really caught me off guard this morning after it was pretty pleasant yesterday afternoon. Wind chill of 12 on a cloudy day is pretty brutal. Also on the topic of recent winter snowfall performances, 2020-2021 was well above average for a lot of people in this thread. I lived in Conshy at the time and we had 4' but I think the cutoff was pretty sharp from NW to SE

I'm not surprised at all but this event has been a complete and total failure by the models. It's a toasty 38 here and I've racked up .30 of rain. Hrrr and nam and RRFS had only a couple hrs of rain before a changeover around 6am. I don't think even the NW stuff will be snow this afternoon. I hope my friends and family over in Eastern NC don't have the same fate!

A couple of days ago the ridge looks nice and then it disappeared yesterday and now it’s back today. Not an unusual progression on models.

thermal gradient aloft is pretty impressive so you really just a little bit of 500mb forcing

End times

Just a s/w digging enough for a light to moderate event. Simple haha. Although the flow itself is complicated with s/w’s diving SE.

Ridge got better this run so we get that nice wave on the weekend this run.

Good luck everyone! Happy for yall up north and down east. This is a good start for many of you.

Gfs completely flipped towards 6z euro Ai solution at h5. Think this is legit. Problem is the track could be too far N. Need to see it dig as far S as possible and see ridge keep improving .

No clue why some idiots are giving me weenies when the pattern supports an amplified solution. Storms can pop out of no where in this pattern.

Not saying it will happen, but with this pattern I've been waiting for something like rlthis.