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No updates from the SPC yet this morning. Its not uncommon for the NWS or SPC to run late on their updates recently ,and sometimes not at all.. I wonder if they're waiting on sounding data updates.

-- Highlight Changed Discussion -- 420 FXUS61 KCTP 110944 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 544 AM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... * Minor changes to SPC outlook limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but degree of instability remains uncertain. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. 2) Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms expected today, starting with nonsevere morning convection. Some storms this afternoon and evening may be severe with damaging winds along with the possibility of a few tornadoes if enough instability is realized. A cold front will sweep through tonight into Thursday, as an upper trough approaches the region. Ahead of the front, numerous showers and some thunderstorms are anticipated today and this evening. The SPC Day 1 Slight Risk area continues to include practically all of central PA with minor changes limited to expanding the tornado and wind threat eastward into the Lower Susquehanna Valley. The main uncertainty with respect to the severe threat continues to be instability with recent HREF model guidance indicating considerable cloudiness across much of the area with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms limiting insolation. Probabilities of SBCAPE exceeding 500 J/kg in the most recent HREF top out in the 40-70 pct range across southwestern and south central PA this afternoon and early evening. Generally less than a 40 pct chance north of I-80. That said, with winds of 40-50 kts in the lowest 3km of the atmosphere, it wouldn`t take much to bring some damaging winds down the ground. While damaging straight line winds will be the most common threat with today`s convection, the SPC D1 outlook also maintains CIG1 hatching over much of southern Pennsylvania, meaning the conditional probability of an EF2 tornado is greater than the climatological average. In other words, if tornadoes do develop across southern PA, they could be strong. This is supported by 250-300 m2/s2 effective SRH and LCLs near 1000 m this afternoon and early evening. KEY MESSAGE 2: Settling into a cooler and windy pattern for the end of the week into early next week. As the base of the trough and associated surface cold front cross PA, a sharp temperature drop in the wake of the cold front may result in any lingering postfrontal precip changing over to snow Wed night into Thu. Given the limited precip and warm ground, not expecting snow accumulation. NW winds will gust 30-40 kts behind the front early Thursday. Winds will get weaker as the day progresses on Thursday. The next system will be a potent Clipper moving across the Great Lakes on Friday. This will likely bring a band of rain and snow showers across mainly the north, but otherwise more of a wind producer than a precip maker. Wind gusts in the 40-50 kt range are possible Fri afternoon into Friday night as the pressure gradient tightens. Wind chills drop into the teens and 20s Friday night into early Saturday, a big change from the recent warm weather. Guidance favors a Great Lakes Cutter track for the next system Sunday into Monday. This would result in a corridor of warmer air pushing in ahead of the system, with highs rising back into the upper 40s and 50s. Much colder air and gusty winds push back in behind the cold front Monday night with chilly temps around through the middle of next week. Latest NBM guidance shows highs stuck in the 20s and 30s on Tuesday, some 15-20 degrees below average. && .AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... VFR conditions expected overnight as a potent frontal boundary inches toward the area but remains west. Visibilities may drop in BR at a few locations as the temperature / dewpoint spread is just a degree or two. Convection over Michigan and northern Indiana will generally move into New York state with showers possibly making it as far south as KBFD after sunrise. Elsewhere, conditions should remain dry into the early afternoon with increasing winds from the southwest. Pre-frontal line of storms looks to cross the state through the mid-afternoon through early evening from west to east. Expect LLWS in TSRA gusts. The actual front will cross the region toward the end of the forecast period with a brief period of heavy rain showers and a wind shift to the northwest. Outlook... Thu-Fri...Windy and colder. Scattered rain and snow showers, with restrictions possible. Sat...Remaining brisk, with restrictions in rain and snow showers most likely at KBFD and KJST. Sun...Rain and snow showers possible across the northern half of PA. Restrictions possible. && .CLIMATE... As of 530 PM, some new records. Altoona temperature estimated at 78 for the high today, old record of 72 degrees set in 1986. Bradford high of 70 broke the old record of 66 degrees set in 1986. Williamsport high of 77 broke the old record of 71 degrees set in 1977. Harrisburg high of 80 broke the old record of 79 degrees set in 2016. Earlier info. below. Near-record warmth is expected Tuesday into Wednesday across Pennsylvania with highs in the 60s & 70s and lows in the 50s. RECORD TEMPERATURES TUE 3/10 WED 3/11 MAX T MIN T MAX T Altoona 72 (1986) 49 (1990) 74 (2025) Bradford 66 (1986) 49 (2021) 66 (2025) Harrisburg 79 (2016) 49 (1955) 76 (2021) State College 76 (2016) 52 (2016) 72 (1986) Williamsport 71 (1977) 50 (1898) 75 (2025) && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ WHAT HAS CHANGED...Colbert KEY MESSAGES...Colbert DISCUSSION...Colbert/Beaty AVIATION...Tyburski CLIMATE...Banghoff

gonna be heartbreaking if our hot start severe season mirrors our winter and pulls up lame in april

Tornado passed very very close to me. Maybe 5 minutes down the road. Wild they turned the sirens off I’m basically where the word “Momence” in on the map, I live off 1

Snow can happen in March or April, but under the right conditions. We just don't have that right now. We have (1) a lack of cold air, (2) the ground is too warm, and (3) the sun angle is too high. We need temps in the 30s and 40s for a few weeks, and that probably isn't happening. Winter weather is just about over. Do not hold out hope for any snow.

We all know snow is not going to happen. (1) There isn't enough cold air, (2) the ground is way too warm, and (3) the sun angle is way too high.

84 to wet snow flakes

I just took a walk around my house this morning and I wasn't surprised to see the Wood frogs or the or the red back salamander, but I haven't see too many snakes out in March, if any ,especially at night. I generally only see snakes out at night late June July and August on the warmest of nights. I try to avoid as many as I could, but frogs and toads were popping under my tires as I drove by some wetlands last night. I absolutely love frogs and toads and will stop to save them when they're not everywhere. I always save large bullfrogs and turtles if I see them on the road .

Hmm...

Euro has an inch or so verbatim. Could be some flakes in the air.

77 degrees yesterday which set a record here, the low yesterday was 32 degrees. Which is a pretty good temperature spread. Appears we are forecasted to get .50” of rain today. It was a welcome run of warmer weather. Now back to winter. 45 degrees this morning.

Hey @H2Otown_WX could you help me out with something? There is notorious missing data from BDL from 1996-2002 on the F6 and climo data. However, i have this theory and suspicion i wonder if you could verify or deny it. There are a lot of reports from around that time on the PNS from BOS during significant snow events and almost always lists East Granby. Kind of strange that during that missing data time East Granby is always there but Windsor Locks is not. Did BDL once report from East Granby? When i checked on google maps Bradley International spans over both towns. So it would make sense that it was once reported as "East Granby" instead of Windsor Locks. Though that still doesn't explain why a lot of data is missing. Just a theory, thought you might know or could find out. Thanks.

Just barely in the spc 5# tornado risk

Sounds like you did ok brother. We all know what to do during a tornado when we’re sitting on the couch in clear weather. And it’s easy to judge when we are safely watching videos away from the danger. When it actually happens IRL it’s so much different and I know from experience. I also regret some of my decisions when I was in one. I hope you’re all safe man glad you’re ok. Take a breather, and I’m being serious here, play some Tetris (an actual proven way to help with trauma right after experiencing it). You’re not dumb. When shtf our brains go to mush. You did what you could under stress and pressure and it sounds like you’re all ok that’s what matters. You did good man. I’m sorry you experienced this though.

Still cellular, but slowly getting more information locally. Damage and videos show probably a few hundred yards to noticeable impact and probably less than half of a mile from considerable damage reported. Also replayed the video I took while coming out from shelter to check on the situation*. The tornado is very audibly noticeable. Boring video because it’s pitch black, but features constant roar of wind and a suction sound as the door to my patio shuts. *I’m dumb for coming out of shelter to check. It was a chaotic environment featuring me, spouse, an elderly grandparent we are caretaking, 3 dogs & 3 cats. From the moment power cut, I lost ability to monitor radar. Not even cell data would work. The couplet was clearly headed for us, and I did my best to estimate it the time it would take to clear. I was too focused on alleviating the chaos with an all clear. Lessons learned. First time I felt genuine threat from a tornado. Nerves still fried and I generally love the spicy booms.

We have a chance like Jim Carrey... In all serious though, i saw it, something to keep an eye on, seems like this winter wants to snow late month every month...

I had one strip from a drift left at sunset. Other than that no natural left, just shovel piles.

I really hope against hope that Fall 2026 is one of the very WORST SUPER NINOs on Record. Maybe a ten billion year Super Nino. I want rain so bad now, I wish we would get a Harvey that would be located about 50 miles southwester from Buda and spin for four weeks, pulling truly Brobdingnagian amounts of moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico, with persistent rain rates in excess of 3 inches per hour for days on end. I don't care how many people are impacted. I want my waters so bad. I crave rain so bad. I want quagmires 20 feet deep! I would not mind 600 inches between Sept 2026 and April 2027. Every storm is missing us. We're so desperate. Dallas has had 9 inches already. I've seen this before. We are heading right into a Super 2011, hell heat and absolutely no meaningful rain to be had.

I like the feeling being at the head of the action. It makes me feel like we won't get the shaft, but the south better be on there balls tomorrow.

What's crazy is that we already had a 5" candidate that would also break the record and then got the 6" report. That's one of the most intense thunderstorms on record in IL. Twice setting new state hail records (likely) with a significant tornado just south of the giant hail. Plains type stuff. Definitely feel for everyone affected down there. Sent from my SM-S936U using Tapatalk

Getting the worst lightning storm (frequent, prolific) I've experienced so early currently, just incredible. Its 4C and dropping, DP of 3C. 200+ strikes in 40 mins. 10mm in less than a hr I still have 5-8 inches snow on most grass with large snow piles. I don't know if its Mar 11 or the 12th but 14 years ago about this time I got one of my only severe t-storms since 2010 which crazily may be the only other frequent lightning event so early (kicked off the great March heatwave). I had sizable hail during that one, no hail in this ongoing storm.

In all 3 "zones" of the HWO from last night DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday Multiple rounds of scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, most likely between 2 PM and 10 PM Wednesday afternoon and evening. Severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70 mph, a few instances of large hail, and a couple tornadoes which could even be strong. Monitor the latest forecast for updates and watches, and be sure to have a way to receive warnings promptly. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will likely be needed Wednesday

Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected today from the ArkLaTex and Lower Mississippi Valley northeastward through the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic. ...Ohio Valley/Middle Atlantic... Northern-stream trough is digging east-southeast across the northern Rockies/High Plains early this morning and should advance into the upper MS Valley by 18z as a 500mb speed max translates through the base of the trough, then increases in intensity as it moves across lower MI during the afternoon. Large-scale height falls will overspread the Great Lakes/OH-TN Valley region as southwesterly flow strengthens across the downstream warm sector. Latest model guidance suggests the sharp cold front associated with this feature will extend across lower MI-central IL-northern MO at the start of the period. This boundary will serve as a primary focus for thunderstorm development through the period. By mid day, the front will have surged into northwest OH-central IN and modest boundary layer heating is expected across the warm sector downstream. Current thinking is modest destabilization will be noted across much of the OH/TN Valley such that MLCAPE values should be on the order of 1500 J/kg within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected to develop, in addition to possible line segments and clusters. Large hail is possible with supercells, along with damaging winds and a risk for a few tornadoes. This activity will spread east toward the Middle Atlantic by late afternoon.

Euro has nothing. Cmc also has nothing . I do like that the PNA is rising along with the MJO moving along. Maybe we have a chance