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Yeah and very low dew points not too far away.

No.

Icon held on.

Icon about the same. Maybe a tad north. Looks good.

A little warmer/north.

Actually, even worse. It could be freezing rain with temps in the teens for some looking at soundings on pivotal. Good gravy.

The Euro had a big snowstorm this far out for this weekend's storm, too.

It was going to cave eventually. This type of storm doesn't jackpot NYC to Philly. These do best along I-90. This is the storm where Boston catches up and probably surpasses us at least along the coast for seasonal snow-wouldn't be surprised if they get 16-18". We're lucky we have this high pressure dome in place to provide an overrunning surface so we get the initial thump of snow down into VA, otherwise this would be the usual SWFE couple inches to rain/sleet. But is something like the NAM possible here with a stronger primary low-sure. Even that though would probably be 4-6" snow then a couple more inches of sleet-however it would also bring the dryslot in quicker.

Why can’t big snows just stay big snows lol

Yes. At DCA, 700-900 above freezing...

It’s close to sleet for a lot of people, but part of it is freezing rain with temps in the low to mid-20s. That would actually be a disaster and we would have more problems than we could ever want.

18z ICON slightly north with the mixing as well, but only a marginal reduction in totals.

Would paralyze dc metro for at least a week. .

Ain’t nobody in here except maybe Brick buying anything, lol. Just goofing around with clown maps. However, it’s way more fun to be scouring HRRR runs for the massive storm in 24 hours while peeking at goofy clowns for next week than trying to look at weeklies hoping the death ridge subsides in February…maybe. .

lol for who Delaware County has gone 13” to 10” to 5.7 now is that less than 3”

ICON may end up warmer, thru 42.

Really? Lots of ZR even up into DC and beyond, rather than mostly or all sleet? ETA: What time about does any flip occur, and how much QPF in that time beforehand?

I have zero faith in the NAM right now. I've seen this movie when we've been hoping for improvements and we get NAM'd. It always overdoes things, and in this setup the consequences are more drastic than normal.

The RGEM is usually money. The GEM is biased cold. The RGEM is usually a strong model for this are, and my favorite. 3k NAM is a close second.

Yup. Well this has been a fun 18z suite

You only need about 3” to cover most grass blades and be in “looks like winter” territory.

Shoot, sorry everyone. Not sure why pivotal defaulted to showing the old run when I clicked, but the 18z RRFS was a lot messier about 8-9 hours of snow and then 8-9 hours of IP/ZR. Ugh. Don’t like the direction this and the NAM went at all

Then we all rip with freezing rain on the icon... 700-900mb blasted