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  2. Weather Will
    WB 21Z NBM for upcoming rain event.
  3. kdxken
    Just about perfect evening. Even the GF agrees. And she doesn't like anything.
  4. dailylurker
    I plan on shutting down December 1 and hauling ass up north. If it's 50's up there and 70's here in December I'll stay open. I went to the Tug last January. When I came back it was like 70 for a week. I worked that entire week then shut it down. I make my annual income by December so I'm definitely not stressing. December, January, and the first couple weeks of February is my time to embrace my weirdness and focus on snowstorms. Let's schedule an estimate! I've got a few openings left in September and October. November is booked solid.
  5. JACKASS
    Warmed right back up again after the clouds moved out.
  6. SnowenOutThere
    I’ll chime in to add my thoughts. They mirror everyone else’s but it probably will be below average LES. To get LES you need good deep cold air running over warm water with a westerly flow. Seems like a La Niña string of NS waves would be the best pattern for get that. Not to say you won’t get any, but you’ll be more reliant on hoping the southern stream can get storms far enough up the coast to so you can get into the westerly flow.
  7. VivaManchVegas
    Its happening...
  8. JACKASS
    I’ll admit that @forkyforkis an odd duck. However, as Kush (who has been banned for other reasons) made it clear, forky was one of the very few “icepussy” mets on this forum. Just a reminder.
  9. SnowenOutThere
    I’m finally coming back from Madison WI tonight/tomorrow so excited to see how it plays out. I think tomorrow might be okay. Already earlier this week we say some strong supercells hit along I-64.
  10. yotaman
    Low of 78, high of 94. Very humid out.
  11. michsnowfreak
    There was a big 14.8" snowstorm Jan 31st.
  12. Typhoon Tip
    May be a winter hosting unusual anomaly/extremes around the hemisphere - more so than climo. For one, warm ENSOs are notorious for that, anyway, but as qc_omega intimated, with CC is providing underneath I find it difficult to imagine a better arena for synergistic feedback. Huge changeability that ranges between somewhat below normal to outlandishly above normal. Basically a bigger gap that usual, reposition on the warm side of climate. You know?
  13. high risk
    Everything you said about the environment later tomorrow is spot on, but the one parameter you left out is cape, and that could certainly prevent a bigger day tomorrow. There is certainly solid model consensus for a “round 2” of storms later Sunday, but forecast soundings don’t look great. I certainly agree, though, that IF we can destabilize, supercells and tornadoes are on the table. Otherwise, it’s a noisy heavy rain event.
  14. KamuSnow
    Actually saw the dewpoint at 59° this afternoon. Still easy to work up a sweat, but not bad for sitting around!
  15. stormy
    An increasingly active subtropical jet. The 2 analog years are 97/98 and 15/16. In 15/16, Sept. went from a dry August to 9.90" for Sept and 5.70" for Oct. 97/98 went from a dry August to 4.58 in Sept. and 6.46" in November.
  16. roardog
    Looking at those temp departures, It looks like we were in between the “cold” east of here and the very mild not too far west of here. I could see how it could have been a clipper pattern around here that winter. I wonder if that is what helped Detroit to get to average snow.
  17. CAPE
    No work in winter? I figured you could put a finish on my deck in Dec when its in the 70s here.
  18. dailylurker
    Yup! December 1 until March 1. Katabatic is throwing in but won't be there full time. I still plan on chasing snowstorms and LES if it's missing my location. I'll be keeping my eye out for big Nino Nor'easters. I agree. A blizzard on the coast of Maine is on my bucket list. Katabatic was saying something about doing a chase up towards Hudson Bay. I'm down for whatever this winter. I might end up in Harrington Delaware again. You never know lol
  19. Baroclinic Zone
    Just accept it’s gonna be a warmer winter. Things may break, things may not. Such is life.
  20. donsutherland1
    Some photos from the New York Botanical Garden on a sun-filled August day with a light breeze and low humidity:
  21. michsnowfreak
    Most of the places I looked up didn't have snow records yet. Detroit had a near avg snow season at 43.4". NYC was well below at 8.1"
  22. CAPE
    You aren't planning to be there the whole winter are you?
  23. Chinook
    Hurricane Lala (65kt) at 6:30PM Aug 15
  24. michsnowfreak
    Duluth, MN was even crazier than Minneapolis. Again, these are today's averages. DULUTH Dec: +15.6° Jan: +9.3° Feb: +15.6°
  25. JACKASS
    But you did? Only to constantly post the snowiest winter outlooks you could find from x/twitter, In multiple sub forums!
  26. MJO812
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