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Looks like it wants to morph more into a SWFE on some guidance, There is usually a ceiling with those on totals but nothing to really down play unless some were looking for something more substantial.

Ya hope it stops moving nw. I have no interest in freezing rain from this one.

Agreed. The bleeding needs to stop and quick.

Not happy about this trend to a more icy solution. Let’s hope the models change course tomorrow.

What does that have to do with my observation of the last few runs?

One more jump and I-95 is looking at significantly reduced snow totals. This probably ends up being 5 inches and then sleet and ice.

Its a 2 footer for most of the favored areas. Although I would expect some mixing even out here and into Western MD.

Looks the most logical model output based on our climo.

Yeah west Loudoun stays all snow this run verbatim. I flip for a bit, but not before 14” (again, verbatim)

snowing good now

If that’s correct. It’s lights out & a true disaster for TN.

And finally for good measure, the 18z Euro Op Kuchera snow .

Sounds good! The NAM at 84 looked like a good start, no?

Defintely and I will be happy with that.

18z euro continues to slowwwly shave snowfall amounts near i95 and introduce more sleet and ice. 18z euro ai took an appreciable jog N. Need the bleeding to stop soon.

Depends on your point of view of what's the wrong way - it's a great run for NoVA west of the fall line, and for the mountains. .

I guess you aren’t interested in the new data ingestion at 0Z.

Yeah we sure got amped.

Things you’ll see in the observation thread Sunday: - The sleet line racing north ahead of schedule - “Hearing pingers in College Park” (4-6 hours before they were forecasted to mix in) - The folks in Frederick measuring snow in feet - DCA reporting a 6” storm total - Various posts from new accounts asking how the forecast was so wrong - The same old “looks like the fall line was the cutoff” postmortem Cannot wait!

Found the 500mb panels on pivotal and there is def less phasing between the big northern stream shortwave and the Baja low. Certainly not like the mess that started this last night at 18z. cannot make a gif right now

Living in Western Loudoun has its perks. But any more movement NW, it get iffy. Still a beat down though. Blend euro and GFS and most are happy

18z Euro has a front end thump of 7-10” for coastal areas before going to a lighter wintry mix. Inland areas get 10-15”+. The main feature is SLP that is tucked into the Delmarva and southern NJ coast. This is still a significant storm for the area.

Can someone give us a Play by Play of the Euro or another panel of where it has the ice line when it’s over TN? Sorry if I’m asking for too much just at work and can’t see it right now.

To the cliff diving thread.

yall wanted amped