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This board has taught me over the years never to underestimate the power of confirmation bias. Whether its snow in your backyard or climate change, its hard for most to accept evidence that is contrary to their point of view. In the case of climate change, many are looking for a reason to ignore/deny. Once the willingness to dismiss of scientific evidence is established, then reversal is very difficult.

So this is happening huh Need to dig in

The latest LOT AFD is insane. Apparently, this has potential to make the history books. In our lifetime, I'm struggling to recall a similar type of setup, especially so early in the season. I hope you Chicago folks enjoy!

Picked up 1.8” so far. We shall see how the rest goes. But here’s one of my cats enjoying a view as the intensity of snowfall started to increase.

BWI: 22.5 DCA: 19.1 IAD: 24.8 RIC: 13.2 Tie Breaker LYH: 18.5

Results TBD, but the early morning AFD from LOT is…quite

“Impossible travel conditions” not sure I’ve seen that wording before lol

Switch to snow was late but not denied. Surprisingly efficient at covering the ground thus far. First flakes & measurable snowfall booked Edit 1 Hour Later: This defo band is serious business. It is ripping. Complete coverage of ground and pavement. Would certainly accumulate better with more favorable antecedent conditions. But wow - exceeding my own expectations.

If this verifies, we could be looking at our first winter storm threat around or after Thanksgiving. Maybe more 40N-north. 18z GFS ensemble mean at 384hr also had a pretty strong -EPO developing. Basically, the NAO is negative for the next 15 days, then the block retrogrades to NE Canada, just when the Pacific changes to more -epo/+pna around Nov 24-25 and after. That actually creates a window for a trough to track across the US, under the -NAO ridge in NE Canada, giving us a chance for a storm to hit colder air after Thanksgiving. The H5 in the map below is good, but we probably need a few days to flush out the old slightly warmer pattern. Still a long way to go, but it's looking good for at least below average temps beyond Day-15, based on current long range models. That cross polar ridge, with a GOA trough and 50/50 trough (although both are weak) is what you want to see -- especially good ridging over Alaska. It's a winterystorm pattern, although early in the year.

Official first flakes here. Also “ greater than 3in per hour goddamn!” Hope someone here gets under a band (and shares pictures with the class of course).

0.56" of rain here.

https://www.weather.gov/btv/froude The paper by BTV NWS linked above is a fantastic overview of the role the froude number plays in orographic precipitation. When cyclonic flow sets up over the mountains, flakes are flying somewhere

Snow is coating the grass rapidly here, God I've missed it

Early November. Brisk air and gray skies.

Things I’ve never had to pay attention to. Looks wintry up at SLK for the next week. Just about perfect timing for my trip up.

It took a couple of hours but we finally started seeing accumulation. DAB+

The models keep getting better! That upper level low pass looks classic across all guidance. Pretty excited for this one.

6th freeze for here

Did someone say...snow showers? Greetings fellow nerds, it's been a while. Today was my bday and you cannot ask for a finer 11/8 around here.

Garrett County Airport K2G4 came back but none of the others have. KFDK, KESN, and KMTN have been sending METAR's manually during hours that the control tower are open.

The developing pack is definitely taking a hit, but in high elevations it should survive the warm up. An extended upslope period is still showing up in guidance and it looks like there will be 2 (or 3) vorticity packets moving through the area through the end of next week to shake the upslope snowglobe. Hopefully soon we're talking about Froude numbers and critical flow, when those terms enter the conversation it's always a sign of a great pattern.

I'm nervous. I want snow right now. lol. We need a good base for snowmobiling, DJF be damned.

Ah. Ct. River Valley. Famous snow hole. The giveaway is the mosquito with the dog in its mouth.

67 today.

https://www.nhl.com/news/mel-bridgman-dies-at-70