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  1. Past hour
  2. A huge plume of rain literally 2-3 miles to my west for the last hour, yet it refuses to come east.
  3. August historically has a pretty good correlation with ENSO's peak later in the year. It's expected to become the strongest on record by Dec and here's the preceding Augusts: There is some -NAO in the mix but right now it's looking like this usually highly correlated month will not be anything special below-average-wise. PNA has been negative 6 straight months including July, and that is the source of the problem.
  4. High of 78. Picked up 1.24" for the day.
  5. Sub-990 low running to Lake Erie in July could be interesting next Tuesday.
  6. Beautiful evening in OC. Reminds me of decades ago when I used to bring jeans and a light jacket on my summer vacations to the eastern shore.
  7. Today
  8. Clouds from around 4pm today looking clear tomorrow, mainly sunny Sat and Sun.
  9. Today's Highs: TEB: 84 New Brnswck: 83 PHL: 83 NYC: 83 EWR: 82 TTN: 82 LGA: 82 ACY: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 80 BLM: 80
  10. If you go by the June -SOI (-22 is very strong for an El Nino historically) you'd expect a cooler than average Great Basin & New England. Not what we have. Moisture is closer though, its wet / dry in mostly the right areas, although spottier than I'd like. Long-term, -SOI in July is a weak cold West signal for Sept, and then the eastern ~5/6 of the lower 48 is weakly favored cold in October. Dec goes to Cold West, Warm East, Mild Plains favored. December also has the first deeper blue signal for precipitation - strongly favoring the Midwest/Southwest for a wet month. No big signals for January via July SOI. In February, SE is strongly favored cold, NW strongly favored warm. March is then a strong SW / Plains wet signal, weak SW cold signal. We're in a flash flood warning here - it's been a good monsoon day statewide (finally). So the precip map should move closer to the correlation map for New Mexico after today.
  11. God you are a genuine insufferable git. A joyless misery day in day out.
  12. Yesterday
  13. I am definitely skinny CAPE- relatively modest updrafts but over a vertically deep layer(quite long/tall) and with lots of juice. @ravensrulewill be along shortly
  14. With temperatures topping out in the lower 80s, today was a great day to photograph some of the flowers and butterflies at the New York Botanical Garden. Five photos:
  15. Euro and gfs pretty much nuke the entire week save for Monday and early Tuesday
  16. Pouring. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
  17. Absolutely dumping the rain this evening. Radar doesn't look like much but it's coming down hard.
  18. Phoenix is on track to tie its all-time record highest minimum temperature today. Minimum temperatures of 90° or above and 95° or above have increased in frequency in recent years due to a combination of the urban heat island effect and anthropogenic climate change.
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