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  2. canderson
    57 here. What a great morning.
  3. dailylurker
    I just watched Jim Cantory say that it seems to be trending more towards a LA landfall. That's more in our wheelhouse for remnant moisture than Texas. That will just mean Frederick and Glen Burnie get flash flooding lol
  4. WestMichigan
    Almost expect to wake up to one of those every day right now. Since it started we haven't missed a day yet. Hoping some day this week will not have an air quality alert!
  5. Superstorm
    56F low in Lancaster. .
  6. mahantango#1
    53 here this morning.
  7. dendrite
    Yeah unless we’re getting 10” of rain in a month and a bunch of 60-70° ratters it’s tough to pull off BN summer months now…even with 1991-2020 normals. CON had 14 mins in the 40s or colder in July 1965 and an extreme of 35°. That’s hard enough for SLK to pull off today.
  8. A-L-E-K
    not much has changed on this front
  9. BlizzardNole
    Point/click has my rain chances for tonight through Wednesday night of 60%, 70%, 90%, 80%, 80%. I'm calling it now: less than 0.2 total and a total whiff wouldn't surprise me. Too bad that new depression in the Gulf is expected to move west towards Texas. A tropical system up the coast is the only way I can think of that would get real rain here.
  10. NEG NAO
    Seems like Upton is discounting the widespread regional flood threat for tomorrow and Wednesday. Thoughts ? AFD from KOKX
  11. rclab
    72 in my UHI blessed Brooklyn postage stamp as opposed to 64 at Central Park, probably due to natural air conditioning. As always …
  12. Today
  13. jbenedet
    Gardeners and farmers don’t forget the year ago pattern. It’s imprinted on us like a scar. A few of us here fit that mold.
  14. jbenedet
    If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Highly doubt that persists through winter.
  16. moneypitmike
    The season is not record hot/cold until it's over. Let's' see how the remainder plays out.
  17. jbenedet
  18. pawatch
    54 degrees this morning. Awesome morning! Anyone have an idea when this storms are supposed to start up tomorrow?
  19. bluewave
    94-95 was close to what the Euro seasonal was forecasting and not what verified. The closest actual 500 mb match was a much warmer nationally and less snowy version of 1995-1996 for DJF. Notice how the ridges overpowered the pattern compared to 1996. It was the first weak La Niña since then with a Bering Sea ridge, Baja SW U.S. ridge, and Greenland block. This has been a common theme regardless of ENSO in recent years. Ridges have been growing stronger and more expansive. The spring pattern quickly flipped to the standard 2020s pattern.
  20. Kmlwx
    CIPS is not super-honking (the threat is there - it's just more muted). If nothing else - I am hoping for an event where I am working from home for a change (or at least in the area...) That said - a confirmed TOR passed near me up in PA Saturday evening (the Houtzdale/Whiteside, PA one confirmed by CTP). Was a few miles away.
  21. high risk
    There has been a clear trend in the guidance for more favorable timing for our area.
  22. donsutherland1
    The weekly ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly rose to +3.6°C during the week centered around July 15. Only the 1982-83 and 1997-98 super El Niño events saw comparable or higher values. The last such anomaly occurred during the week centered around December 24, 1997 (+3.6°C). A strong El Niño is ongoing.
  23. SnoSki14
    Both but people have the weather memory of a goldfish. A couple cooler days and suddenly they think summer hasn't been record hot.
  24. snowfan
    Quite nice this morning. Low of 64 imby.
  25. jbenedet
    Nah. Tuesday/wed is part of the banner. Wall to wall sun is too much of a good thing. Need the rain to keep the landscape happy and the water bills in check.
  26. Kmlwx
    https://www2.mmm.ucar.edu/projects/ncar_ensemble/ainwp/?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR3_KcoSRHWhY1lxCTCfOqSNC0AD8SUSmL_c7R_N8rtpvo-PsNNvuY3vuI4_aem_Stpgx3ntIqB8IVErFY76cQ Not posting individual maps since there are many toggles from the NCAR page - but NCAR highlighted areas would argue for continuing to shift the ENH eastward if it is correct.
  27. Kmlwx
    Latest CSU MLP guidance
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