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Maybe we are moving in the direction of making some small improvements on that front if the claims about this new AI corrected version of the EPS weeklies turn out to be correct.

But since I’m a man that’s honest, euro AI failed with the rain over us too back a few days ago.

Man euro AI just wiped its ass with the euro op this weekend. Euro op had this cold shot coming in while euro AI laughed at it. Robots won.

I mentioned in the enso thread on the main forum, but honestly, pretty much everyone in the north and east is expecting a subpar winter relative to their climo. So the expectations are set. However, there are a few trolls in that thread that say absolutely ridiculous things that are completely unrealistic wrt weather, and these things will be hilarious when people bump them in the spring. People need to kinda chill on these insane assumptions because its such a strong Nino, especially with some things not behaving as expected. Do I expect a milder and less snowy than avg winter? Yes. But thats as far as ill go.

Frost again on elevated surfaces. 4 nights in a row.

Webber cancelling baby. https://x.com/webberweather/status/2112886732030886077?s=46

Not a big ran of Pivotal Weather website redesign.

Yesterday, the ECMWF announced, "A finer 0.1° resolution is now published alongside the existing 0.25°, for the IFS streams (the AIFS streams remain 0.25° only). It is produced from the same high-resolution (~9 km) forecast." So, how did the new higher-resolution map perform with regard to this morning's low temperatures in the NYC area? The 10/21 0z run did quite well with one exception. Preliminary Lows: October 21, 2026: Bridgeport: 49° Islip: 50° New York City: 50° Newark: 48° White Plains: 41° (off by 4°)

You never know about the holidays! 60 years ago in 1966, Augusta had a high of 31 and low of 18 with 6 inches of snow. 61 years ago in 1965, we had a high of 62 and low of 46.

The is peak fall weather, but damn is it boring.

6-7

let's get greedy and go for no single digits

Still little hope in the long range. Google deep mind keeps us bone dry over the next two weeks

We all know not one non neutral winter recently has really acted like it should relatively to what we’d see 25-50 years ago. I’ve said a few times nothing would surprise me this winter. We could see a December 89/00 redux or a February 2023 redux despite it being a strong El Niño and I wouldn’t be surprised anymore.

Coastal front went through was 52 with strong NE wind. Now 49.7 with lighter N wind. Not that it’s exciting, but sort of an interesting mesoscale feature.

I think we have a shot of making it through this winter without a subzero temp. Happens in about ~10% of winters and this upcoming one has a realistic shot. Also sub 20” snowfall certainly in play as well.

This will be fun to score. I think it’s way too cold of a forecast.

44° with a decent breeze. Beginning to look and feel like November. Only real green left in the woods is Christmas ferns and winterberry.

I am slightly warming from previous mornings. 29.9 at 7 am. 4 consecutive freezes.

There’s not a lot of hickory up here. Most of the large beech, chestnuts, butternut, and ash are gone. A lot of the yellows are aspen and birch which turn with the maples. There’s some ironwood and basswood around too, but they don’t grow like weeds like the others.

32 this moning.