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Thoughts on how I mapped how each NS might go? Anything you’d change?

26 miles and 18" of rain difference still boggles my mind. @canderson garden watering as commenced, grass will probably follow next week sometime Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

well .. i was also intending a good bit of that for snarky sarcasm But I do think like all snarky sarcasm ...there's an "air" of truism in there

A break in the heat is now underway. This morning featured refreshingly cool temperatures. Central Park saw a low of 63°, which was its coolest low temperature since June 28 when the low was also 63°. Low temperatures included: Bridgeport: 62° Danbury: 61° Farmingdale: 63° Islip: 65° New Haven: 63° New York City-Central Park: 63° New York City-JFK Airport: 65° New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 64° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 66° Poughkeepsie: 59° White Plains: 61° Generally somewhat cooler than normal conditions will likely persist through the first week of August. It could briefly turn warmer around the middle of next week. There remain hints on the long-range guidance that a new round of heat could develop past August 10th. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.2°C for the week centered around July 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged 0.00°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer. The SOI was +3.58 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.359 today.

1.91” is the event total here.

1.91” event total here.

I finally get a week off to go to the beach and the forecast jut tanks. Lovely.

It passed 9-3 on the first vote. It's basically a done deal!

I just saw the new Euro Weeklies and am sticking with 5 NS. They are notably active again for mid to late August.

Daily records for NYC for August ... Notes: temps in brackets with low min indicate some associated maxima that are not the low max records. Also, for 2d rainfalls, which routinely include the previous day (e.g. Aug 1 is July 31-Aug 1), a * symbol indicates all the rain fell on the date and ** indicates all the rain fell the previous day. Otherwise the two days both had some of the total indicated. Some notes below the body of records indicate secondary noteworthy events not records. Date __ Hi max __ Hi min _______ Low max __ Low min ______ max 24h rain _ max 2d rain total Aug 01 ___100 1933 ___ 82 1917 ________ 68 1923 _____ 59 1895, 1964 ____ 2.85 1878 ___ 3.99 1889 (2.29+1.70) Aug 02 ___100 1955 ___ 83 2006 _______ 67 1875 _____57 1875 ___________ 2.49 1973 ___ 2.52 1973 Aug 03 ___ 97 2005 ___ 78 1975,2006 __ 66 1921 _____ 55 1886, 1927 ____ 2.71 1946 ___ 3.11 1885 (0.67+2.44) Aug 04 ___100 1944 ___ 78 1908,2005 _ 69 1909 _____56 1886 (69 3rd) ___ 3.25 1915 ___ 3.66 1915 Aug 05 ___101 1944 ____ 81 1908 _______ 68 1903 _____56 1886,1912,51 __ 1.44 1884 ___ 3.05 1884 Aug 06 ___ 97 1931,55__ 80 1906,08,18__ 64 1915 _____ 56 1869 (67) ______ 3.31 1878 ___ 3.31 1878* Aug 07 ___104 1918 ____ 82 1918 _______ 64 1975 _____57 1994 (75 6th) ___ 2.18 1921 ___ 3.65 1990 (2.30+1.35) ^ Aug 08 ___ 99 2001 ____ 80 1980 _______69 1903 _____ 54 1903 ___________ 2.60 1927 ___ 2.60 1927*__ 2.50 2007 (1d) Aug 09 ___103 2001 ___ 82 1896,2001 _ 68 1879 _____57 1919, 89 _______ 4.10 1942 ___ 4.83 1976 (0.93+3.90) Aug 10 ___ 98 1891,1949 _ 80 1896 ______ 60 1962 _____ 55 1879 (73) ______ 4.64 1990 ___ 4.70 1990 __ 2.51 2006 (1d) Aug 11 ___102 1944 ____ 81 1891,96 ____ 68 1931,33,62_ 56 1962 ___________2.90 2018 ___ 6.14 1990 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) Aug 12 ___ 97 1944 ____ 80 1988 _______ 64 1979 _____ 55 1889 (73) ______ 3.62 1955 ___ 4.90 1989 (1.90+3.00)^ Aug 13 ___ 99 2005 ____ 82 1908 _______ 68 1873,1934_ 55 1930 (73 12th) _2.70 1955 ___ 6.32 1955 __ 4.01 1926 (2d)^ Aug 14 ___ 99 1988 ____ 84 1908 _______ 66 1873,1919_ 54 1964 (77) ______5.81 2011 ___ 5.81 2011*_ 3.10" 2005 (1d) Aug 15 ___ 97 1988 ____ 81 1988 _______ 66 1992 _____ 54 1964 (80) ______ 1.52 1911 ___ 6.37 2011 Aug 16 ___ 96 1944 ____ 79 1938 _______ 65 1883 _____ 55 1880 (73) ______ 4.80 1909 ___ 4.83 1909 Aug 17 ___ 95 1944,2015_ 78 1978,2015 _ 65 1909 _____ 56 1881^ 1979 ____ 2.86 1974 ___ 5.15 1909 Aug 18 ___ 94 1913,87,2002_78 2002_______ 62 1874 _____ 55 1915 (73) ______3.95 1879 ___ 4.59 1879 Aug 19 ___ 94 1914,66,2002_ 77 1906,2015 _70 1881,1946_ 55 1924 (73 18th) _2.53 1991 __ 3.95 1879** Aug 20 ___ 97 1955 ____ 77 1906,83,2015_ 68 1990,2000_ 55 1949 (76) _____4.80 1873 ___ 4.89 1873 __ 3.63 1904 (1d). Aug 21 ___ 96 1955 ____ 78 1906 _______ 59 2007 _____ 53 1922 (66 22nd) _4.45 2021^___4.84 1873 Aug 22 ___ 95 1916 ____ 78 1906 _______ 65 2007 _____ 52 1895 (71) ______ 2.67 2021^___ 7.12 2021 _ 4.32 1888 (2d) Aug 23 ___ 92 1916 ____ 77 1906 _______ 63 1930 _____ 51 1923 (72) ______ 3.03 1930 ___ 3.74 2021 3.29 1933 (1.06+2.23) 5.51" 3d (2.22 21st) Aug 24 ___ 94 1972 ____ 76 1891 _______ 64 1937,45 __ 52 1890 (65) ______ 3.61 1893 ___ 3.94 1893 __ 2.81 1891 (1.91+0.90) Aug 25 ___ 95 1948 ____ 76 1961,98 ____ 64 1873 _____ 52 1940 (69) ______ 1.86 1982 ___ 3.61 1893** Aug 26 ___103 1948 ___ 78 1948,2021 __ 61 1940 _____ 53 1887 (67) ______ 3.24 1908 ___ 4.13 1941 (1.83+2.30) Aug 27 ___101 1948 ____ 79 1948 _______ 62 1927 _____ 50 1885 (65) ______ 4.16 1971 ___ 4.16 1971*__ 2.88 2011 (1d) Aug 28 ___100 1948 ____ 79 2018 _______ 60 1940 _____ 50 1885 (68) ______ 3.99 2011 ___ 6.87 2011 __ 2.79 1983 (1d) ^^ Aug 29 ___ 99 1953 ____ 81 2018 _______ 63 1903 _____ 50 1965,82,86 _____ 2.68 2002 ___ 3.99 2011**_ 2.85 1983 (2d) Aug 30 ___ 98 1953,73 _ 78 1973,2018 __ 62 1911 _____ 50 1965 (70) ______ 2.18 2008 ___ 2.68 2002**_ 2.37 1872 (2d) Aug 31 ___100 1953____ 78 1953 ________ 59 1911 _____ 50 1976 (72,74) ____ 3.76 1911 ___ 4.61 1911 -- - - - - - - - - - - - - -- ^ 6th-7th 2.77" 1978 (1.78+0.99) .. 1878 no additional rain 7th. ^ 12th _ _ 3.34"R 1926 (1d). 4.01" 12th-13th. ^ 17th max for 1881 was 67, for 1979 68 next day ^ 21st rainfall prev record 4.19" 1888 (broken 2021) ^ 22nd rainfall prev record 1.85" 1994 (broken 2021) also prev 2d rain 4.32" 1888 ^^ 27th-28th 2d rain 1971 5.96 (4.16+1.80) ________________________________________________________________

Pronounced Guilford county split going on. Odd how things can change in just a few weeks

Always the case with these Climate models. I don't pay much attention to the h5 height anomalies on these tools, more so the height lines and the flow. At the surface the depicted temp anomalies give a sense of where the colder air will be relative to avg. At least there is some blue! And its nearby.

it's in the low 70s here, it feels more like September 20th not October lol

I think you misread what I wrote: what you stated here is what I said, the mins are rapidly increasing, the maxes are not rapidly increasing, they are relatively stable (it could be a small increase but not anything like the rapid rate of the mins increase.) So the daily range is much less (the difference between min and max.) I don't disagree with what you wrote about 2050 either, it's just that we are not there yet. Recent Julys have had mean minimum temperatures that are warmer than the mean 24-hour averages from past "cold" Julys. Probably after 2050, we will begin to see Julys where the mean minimum temperatures exceed the mean maximum temperatures from old-school cold Julys.

Need some.

Weak Ninas are typically the worst for our region for snow, but last winter proved decent snowfall is possible. First and foremost we need cold air, and the HL largely cooperated, most notably in the EPO domain. I cant worry myself over the PDO. It is what it is, and historically a -PDO correlates with cold ENSO, and visa versa. There are other things at play now that tend to keep it negative, but we wont get into that here. Hopefully, like last winter it at least trends towards neutral some. As I said in my post above, a key in how bad/good a Nina winter ends up is the orientation and exact location of the NE Pac ridge. If we get periods where it is poleward and located more over AK, we can get some cold to work with. Moisture and storm track are another story, and we need some luck with that.

TomballEd points out the possible "Erin"

So much red

Huh, I did not realize the SPC outlook for 8/18/05 looked like that. Crazy it has been 20 years since then. I was too young to remember it personally though. I can't and frankly don't even want to imagine what it will be like when we get another Stoughton or Oakfield level tornado in the Madison area, and we have had a couple close call setups where that would have been possible the last few years.

The August CANSIPS is out. Normal to BN temps through December. AN temps Dec/Jan w/ a gradient type of cold centered over the Great Lakes. Feb is BN. There is definitely room for cold intrusions w/ most of the intense warmth centered out West through Feb. The ridge will slide eastward at times, but the key feature is a trough over the EC. I still have my doubts as endless summer seems to be a recent and nasty weather trend during fall. The CANSIPS seems to imply that the worst of summer is behind us with the exception of a 2-3 weeks of near certain return of summer temps. Is it right, IDK but the CFSv2 seems in agreement about normal to BN temps over the forum area for Fall.

August opens with an AQI of 174 and dews in the 40s.

I used the Euro models (weeklies/sub-seasonal range forecast) and somehow came up with: Dexter: 8-10 Aug, NW Gulf, C1 Erin: 12 - 16 Aug, EC FL swell, MDR, brush, C3 Fernand: 19 - 24 Aug, gyre NE Gulf, TS Gabs: 27 Aug - 2 Sep, Caribbean - NE Gulf, C2 Humberto: wait until September (or the very last day of August, probably CV long track), C4 I personally see 4 NS just based on the Euros alone Thoughts?

Well Charlotteburg is the biggest city in the country, after all.

I could see that happening. I mean in all seriousness, we are going to start and see hemispheric changes occurring very soon (even this month) and we're really a strong disruption to the hemispheric flow away from truly (as Steve likes to say) breaking the back. This probably happens this month...that doesn't mean we aren't going to see any anomalously warm periods and high humidity, but we will get stronger cold fronts which will usher in those early fall like airmasses and the duration of the cooler airmasses behind these fronts will grow longer each time (until we erode summer for good). I am hoping to explore some seasonal thoughts in the next month/two but I begin grad school classes in 2.5 weeks so probably not going to have much time to divulge.

It certainly appears that Augdewst is shaping up to be even more humid than Julorch was . And that’s pretty hard to do . But whoa!