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Yeah CAMs have been *relatively* consistent with pushing some sort of loose cluster of storms through the DC area.

Pouring again in Brightwaters. Pop up showers. Better than nothing

Mesoscale Discussion 1253 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 221725Z - 221930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity over the next couple of hours. Scattered damaging wind gusts, isolated hail and perhaps a tornado will be possible through evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by 19z. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms over the higher terrain of WV and vicinity are gradually increasing in intensity this afternoon as gradual destabilization occurs. Downstream from higher terrain across portions of VA into MD/DE, southern NJ and southeast PA, stronger heating is occurring within areas of mostly clear skies. Higher quality moisture across eastern VA has been streaming northward toward southeast PA/southern NJ and ensuing stronger destabilization is noted. Enhanced westerly flow is apparent in early afternoon mesoanalysis and 12z regional RAOBs. This should allow for sufficient deep layer shear for storm organization. Thunderstorm clusters will pose mainly a risk of damaging wind gusts given steep (greater than 7.5 C/km) 0-3 km lapse rates and PW values around 1.75 inches. Some forecast guidance suggests sufficient clustering/outflow consolidation may occur in the vicinity of northern VA/MD and a forward propagating cluster/bowing segment could develop and track northeast with time toward southeast PA/NJ. This corridor aligns with the corridor of stronger midlevel westerlies, and may pose a relative greater severe risk compared to points further south into southern VA and NC where flow is weaker. If this scenario unfolds, damaging wind potential will increase. Given modest 0-1 km SRH across the region, a tornado or two also could occur, though the damaging wind risk is expected to be the primary hazard into early evening. ..Leitman/Hart.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX... GSP...MRX...JKL... LAT...LON 40497808 40747686 40807597 40757507 40587476 40047426 39677428 38847474 38197525 37847570 37297702 36447933 36097997 35748149 35858253 36268338 36608350 36928354 37748308 38378233 39148140 40177908 40497808 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN

This morning it was in the 50s and was raining. Much more typical of what I’d expect for a pre-super Nino summer around here as 1972, 1982, and 1997 had a handful of these days in June and July.

Watch coming by 3pm

Absolutely pouring. I thought the rain shield was down south and wondering why we are getting soaked. Can’t miss right now.

lol we are gonna be more than halfway through our avg 90-deg days before the end of June.

Radar seems to favor NYC/north later

AL in 2011 with 146. “Padded” with 62 on April 27. KS in 2008 had 187. TX in 2015 had 244. Still a few outbreaks away from touching that in IL.

the dew has fallen into the low 60s here, but its 92. doesnt exactly feel unstable out there. the extreme dryness plays a big part.

Well it did rain.... Had 5 drops on my windshield.

I’m jealous. Been mostly cloudy up here all morning and mild. Hoping we can get some sun up here for a bit. I’m gonna be out west for a couple weeks so I’d like to see/hear some storms prior.

I agree 100%. But actually, at least 1 in here IS implying the lowest snow totals will repeat. Analogs are a tool like models. You could have everything align nearly identical to a previous year and the weather will never be replicated verbatim. Assuming winter is mild overall, there will likely be some significant Fall cold shots and early snows here in the lakes, that is a very common strong nino trait.

My numbers run slightly higher than WCS, and showing a rise back to around 0. Last year at this time we were tanking the value. In 2024 we were recovering somewhat after already tanking, but values were still much lower than now. In my mind its clear that things are really changing from where we've been the last 10 years. Yeah, maybe we aren't headed for a robust +PDO, but it feels like neutral to slightly positive could be in the cards.

Loving these temps but I know the rubber band is gonna snap by the 4th so I'm going to FL after the 4th for 2 weeks to justify 95/75 everyday lol.

Just upgraded to 5% .

That’s a lot of water to our west on Albany radar. Bring it!

WB 15Z NBM through Tuesday would be nice .75 to inch for most of us.

Pouring in Brightwaters unfortunately that’s probably the only rain that I, and most of the island will see

Given this (granted its early) I don't think tropical is anything we'll be tracking. Unless you want to count any remnant Gulf systems being absorbed in troughs come Fall and moving up to our west

The 12z CSU MLP update re-increased the 5% area for TOR and also inched the 30% wind closer to MBY.

Good luck counting on that day. Not much will happen tomorrow

HRR is putting the heavy axis of QPF in SNH and SVT. What are everyones thoughts on this? 3" max or more?

91F at DCA.

Can we actually back into a nice event??