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That's not iced coffee, is it?

I had a weather radio! It was awesome!! .

Finally my county (and all Ohio) has been upgraded to Winter Storm Warning, after some uncertainty( Lucas, Wood) and also Monroe County Michigan

Hrrr 12z 2026.01.24.mp4

I have noticed that they tend to air on the side of caution and lean towards the worst case. Better to prepare people for the worst and bust high than the other way around.

That's one of the sickest patterns I have ever seen on that 12z GFS run

I feel like I got more with that storm than with VD but I might be misremembering. Time to access @famartins storm archive!

Euro is starting.

Flurries have started here, up to 33.1 degrees

It’s under appreciated just how cold this airmass really is. Today would be a COLD day in even Albany or Syracuse so we can’t blame a bad airmass for our mix issues

I hope so, but my problem with that theory is that the models are purely math and physics based. I would think they "know" the law of physics and have worked out the correct possibilities and somehow figured that out. Again, I hope it's wrong. Regardless, at this point I'm glad we got something to talk about and not sitting here saying 10 more days away...

Civil wars beginning

End of the month system still shows up on GFS and AIFS Euro AI. Other ensembles are of course all over the place. That'll also have implications on the High Risk for much below normal temps from CPC.

Hopefully an overachieving performance yet to come

12Z GFS is disgusting. Endless CAD through the end of the run. Although *at least* the last 200 hours of each run of that model are a total crapshoot, I'd really prefer a different look at some point.

We already have one: Tha panic room, lol

Thats the precip area I was referencing, pretty impressive on radar

still very bullish

Looks like only the snowstorm in January 2016 out in Chesco....might have been another year

Thanks! I appreciate the 11:39 correction. My bad!!! I hope this is right but it disagrees with half of the models. Especially the vaunted Euro.

New York City: 7.4 Boston: 13.5 Philadelphia: 6.6 Washington DC: 5.2 Hartford: 14 Albany: 16.6 Isp: 7.5

Not in this case since it has nothing to do with surface temps in either location, although as Eduggs just outlined their may be noticeable differences in how far off the NAM soundings are to snow in our area vs in Little Rock.

I’ve worried about this icemaggedon all week. I had a truckload of wood delivered last night, and the pantry is stocked with grab-and-go food. I’d love it if this storm completely busted. I remember back before the internet. I watched the morning and evening weather, listened to NOAA weather radio, and went on with my day. Now, with the internet, it feels like 24/7 fear porn most of the time.