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On our way home and wind is whipping across fields on 404

Nah, let’s get our annual blocking period out of the way now so we can look forward to zonal PAC warmth.

FWIW, the top 3 QBO analogs regardless of any other variables e.g., ENSO, for the past three months are 1974, 2014, and 1979. 1974 ranks 3rd best over a wider 6-month period while 2014 ranks first over a wider 6-month period. 1979 is just 20th for a wider 6-month period. So, the 1974 and 2014 cases probably offer a reasonable picture on how the QBO will evolve over the next few months.

fine line...that must be inducted into the fraud 7 or whatever Right up there with the D5 cheerfully optimistic anafrontal 3-6" for Christmas day i'm not working tomorrow so expecting a dud, but hopefully DIT and Ineedsnow get some damage

Started the day with about 60% leaf drop, closer to 80% now that the breeze has picked up. 70 and a muggy feeling 61 dew.

Torch today. Tickling 70F

-2:57 today to 10:57(ish)

76 / 60 Gem of a late october day

Proud to announce I have acquired.02 inches of rain

I don’t think it’s bad luck. It’s tempting to say that when an individual storm misses by just a few miles…but when that exact thing happens a majority of the time in cold enso seasons I think it’s actually a part of the pattern. I think there is enough data to say definitely the further east you go in our region the better your odds are of having a better snow season WRT climo during a Nina. I think it’s two factors which account for that. Some Nina’s are actually cold or at least feature cold periods. But they are still dry with a weak or absent STJ. If it’s cold/dry that advantages further southeast where it takes less snow to have a “good” year wrt climo. If you luck your way into couple storms and end up with 18” that’s a decent year on the eastern shore. That same result is “not good”for places like Leesburg or Winchester and “god awful what have I done wrong with my life” for up here. The other thing is the combination of a weaker STJ and faster NS means the storms we do get are likely to favor places further east as they are rarely going to be healthy gulf waves approaching from the TN valley. They are often weak waves that need to develop as they phase with the NS later and usually that favors farther northeast. They can clip our eastern zones near the coast as they develop before destroying NJ and NYC. But they typically leave my area smoking citrus. It’s easy to think it’s bad luck when you miss a storm that close but when it happens enough times I don’t think it’s luck. Im not complaining. There are plenty of years that make up for it. My snowfall is astronomically better in other types of winters. But cold enso is not it. It’s just sucked for places NW of 95 that’s we’ve been stuck in an extremely hostile PDO recently which basically makes the constant base state pattern Nina ish. It will change eventually and places NW will cash in again.

Correction, the gulf has had more snow than us in 3 years combined. I’m going to go ahead and admit it without apologizing to my dear brethren down east and to the south. I am seeking a 1035+ HP in Ohio/NY with a robust miller B or a Miller A with a track 50 miles inland from the coast this winter.

Temp has surged above 75 under filtered sun and a great breeze. Really beautiful outside tho I think it's going to be quite a long time before I see 75 again

Going to Hersheypark today from 3-9. Would love some opinions regarding How much an issue the wind will be with shutting down rides. I think the rain will hold off till after close. Sent from my SM-G970U1 using Tapatalk

Definitely more than you are used to. Enjoy.

Looks like it will be a fun 7-12 minutes lol

Hadn’t seen any in a few weeks. Yesterday they said …hey! Let’s fuck with y’all now!

Frankly until the PDO becomes less hostile (I don’t necessarily mean we go into a truly favorable PDO just that we get out of this run of near record hostility within the longer term PDO cycle) I don’t think the enso state means all that much. Out goalposts (outside the coastal areas where one or two 6” storms makes or breaks it) is likely between a total dead ratter and a median/80% of mean type winter. Of course the problem with persistence as the basis for a forecast is the pattern can flip and you don’t always know ahead of time when that will be. That said if we get to December without any sign the PDO is going through a significant phase alteration our fate is probably locked in.

Not duds for the MA region as a whole. The bomb cyclone in Jan 2018 and the 'Cape' storm in early Jan 22. There were additional light to moderate events for the coastal plain in those winters too. Sorry it didn't work out for the NW crew, but that's just kinda bad luck. Roll the dice with those synoptic setups again.

11 hours, seems less than that. I guess we only notice when the sun is up, versus twilight during dawn and dusk...

Betting line is open for the strongest mesonet/asos wind gust with the frontal passage this evening. I'm going with 45mph at Keedysville.

70 and. Breezy.

It won’t reach the bay because the mountains are going to be an anti rain force field.

Hum much more aggressive that most models which are trending poorly due to bad timing

74 here now, definitely t-shirt weather

very warm i even saw a few people wearing t-shirts..