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Amazing photos as always Don. Really beautiful!

HRRR is nice for overnight tonight. 3km NAM blows.

Yea, clickbait, just thought the headline was so opposite this thread, I couldn’t resist

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (1988) NYC: 99 (1956) LGA: 99 (1956) JFK: 95 (2005) Lows: EWR: 49 (1978) NYC: 49 (1875) LGA: 51 (1978) JFK: 52 (1980) HIstorical: 1886: Many people were lost when high seas from a hurricane inundated the area near Sabine, TX. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1887: Lexington and Long Creek, Oregon: First documented Oregon tornadoes strike Lexington in Morrow County and Long Creek in Grant County, causing considerable damage to farmland and timber. In addition, the Lexington tornado results in one death, the only one ever reported from a tornado in Oregon. 1903 - The Heppner Disaster occurred in Oregon. A cloudburst in the hills sent a flood down Willow Creek, and a twenty foot wall of water swept away a third of the town in minutes, killing 236 residents and causing 100 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum) 1953: The warmest June on record occurred in Oklahoma City, OK. The main part of the heat wave extended from the 11th through the 21st, and seven of the daily high temperatures during that stretch remain records for their respective dates. June 14th was the hottest day, reaching a toasty 106°. The other records ranged from 100° to 105°. Even the nighttime lows were records. Eight daily minimum temperatures from June 1953 are still record-warm daily minimum temperatures, ranging from 75° to 80°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1957: An F4 tornado moved across the south and southeast sides of Springfield, IL. The tornado destroyed 25 homes and severely damaged 175 others; property damage was around $3 million dollars. On the north side of town, the storms produced a wind gust of 98 mph at Capital Airport, which still stands as Springfield's record wind speed. Two people died during the storm, with over 50 others injured. A separate tornado touched down in downtown Jacksonville, destroying or damaging 40 buildings. East St. Louis, IL recorded the state record for rainfall in 24 hours with 16.54 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1961 - The temperature in Downtown San Francisco, CA, soared to 106 degrees to establish an all-time record for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1974: A tornado took an intermittent 53 mile long path across northwest and west central Illinois. The tornado first touched down just southeast of the Quad Cities, and moved southeast into Knox County. In Abingdon, 200 homes were damaged or destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Thirty-two cities in the central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Flint, MI, tied their record for June, and the high of 101 at Milwaukee WI marked their first 100 degree reading in 32 years. Thunderstorms brought much needed rains to South Texas, drenching McAllen with 3.2 inches in one hour. A thunderstorm soaked the town of Uncertain with 2.3 inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thirty cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from the Central Gulf States to the Middle Atlantic Coast Region during the day and into the night. There were 62 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorm winds caused 28 million dollars damage in Montgomery County MD. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1990: Shadyside, OH was destroyed by a wall of water up to 30 feet high causing 26 fatalities. The flooding was caused by 4 inches of rain that fell in just 75 minutes. Localized, excessive rainfall fell on saturated ground over southeastern Ohio during the evening, resulting in a 15 to 20 foot wall of water that raced down three small tributaries of the Ohio River. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Norfolk: a bolt of lightning struck and critically injured a 50-year-old woman and a 38-year-old man playing in a golf tournament at Greenbrier Country Club in . Both suffered severe burns. 1998: On June13th and 14th Boston, MA had 5.99 inches precipitation the greatest in a 24 hours for June. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) and Atlantic, Iowa, set a state record for daily precipitation, measuring 13.18 inches of rain. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Rockingham County, three dispatchers were shocked through their headsets by a lightning strike. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 2001: Heavy wet snow fell along the Beartooth foothills in Montana. Snowfall totals included: 24 inches 9 miles south of McLeod, 18 inches just west and south of Red Lodge, McLeod & Mystic Lake: 12 inches, Stillwater Mine: 6 inches and Red Lodge: 1 inch. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2009: The line of severe thunderstorms formed along a boundary over the western suburbs of Denver, CO then moved east. The boundary produced at least one well defined funnel cloud that was observed by a stadium full of baseball fans at Coors Field. Large hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter was reported at Arvada, Broomfield, Denver, Federal Heights and North Glenn. In addition, the storm produced wind gusts from 60 to 74 mph. A peak gust of 58 mph was observed at Denver International Airport. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2010: During June 14, training thunderstorms associated with a nearly-stationary cold front and an intense low-level jet brought torrential rains to the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, area. Six to nine inches of rain in little more than three hours caused flash floods, resulting in more than three dozen water rescues. The North Canadian River at Oklahoma City rose from eight feet to over 21 feet almost instantly during the morning of June 14, Oklahoma City's wettest day on record (7.62 inches).

49 and cloudy with some light showers this morning. High should reach the upper 50's with a stout nw'trly breeze. Good day for a deep woods hike, the bugs will be minimal.

Warm start to the day. Mid 80s already.

80 / 61 sunny but clouds already to CPA and suspect much of the afternoon is more clouds than sun but still upper 80s - low 90s (extending the heatwave for those that hit 90 on saturday). Front and some storms later this evening and overnight could be some strong to severe storms. Cooler Mon - Wed, brief heat spike Thu more 90s then quickly followed by cold front Friday. Ridge west - trough easy and overall near normal through the 24th. Last week of the month ahead of and into next should see more above normal biuld in and next chance of multi 90 degree days or sustained heat. 6/14 : Hot / storms 6/15 - 6/17 : Cool / dry very nice days 6/18: Brief heat spike 6/19 - 6/24 : Ridge west / trough northeast - near normal limited if any 90s 6/25 - beyond : Moderation to warmer - next chance and heat towards the end of the period and opening next month

The synoptics definitely scream big event for someone, but the sounding you showed highlights the possible fail mechanism here. The strong mid-level flow develops a sharp lee trough on the east side of the Appalachians early in the day which blasts across the Mid-Atlantic by lunchtime. We then downslope big time ahead of the cold front. That's why there is no directional shear in that sounding - the low-level flow has shifted to westerly. Still plenty of time for sure, though, to sort out the synoptic details.

Somewhat debatable depending upon who you ask. I have seen some strange things over the years. One might expect more reports in central NC from a DAY One forecast for Slight Risk from SPC----which had changed much with updates. With that said, there was not a Watch Issuance in NC, but one was issued for parts of VA, and the border counties of northwestern NC. Here is a preliminary verification map. Maybe not terrible, but like I said, one maybe would have expected at least a few reports in central NC----regardless of any watch. That's weather for you. SPC Severe Weather Event Review for Friday June 12, 2026.

Some form of a severe threat, or just some weird anachronistic cyclone for this time of year with a lot of wind Thursday Emerging yet still vague heat signal after the 25th

I'm still pretty bullish on today, especially for those east of Route 15. I'll be watching dew point this afternoon closely, as a number of models really mix out for a while and lower the dews significantly. That said, I'm not sure that I buy it to the extent that some guidance has most guidance recovers moisture ahead of development, and shear will be very good later today. If moisture really does mix out for a while, the threat will then be more focused east of the Potomac.

A surprise storm came through this morning dumping a quarter inch, wish I didn't run my sprinkler at 4am. Sun is coming out. Steamy already. Nascar at 1 while floating in the pool today!

Beautiful morning here. 58.0 for the low, currently 62.0/58.0 at 8:40 am with partly cloudy skies.

Low of 65. Looks like any real action down this way may not occur until after sundown. Then comes the relief, setting up a beautiful couple of days.

Could be a decent storm day. Looks like could put a damper on the White House ufc event lol

Already four 95-degree days and one 100. We're gonna post ugly number this summer, like 15 or more 95, five 100 and one 105. The 90-plus number will be hideous.

Looks like a Delmarva special today

@csnavywx Brought up the off-equator WWBs a couple of weeks ago: “We ain't getting a CP or "basin wide" event. Too much off-equator WWB activity, which focuses WWV onto the equator via Eckman transport and causes EKWs to break and surface later. If you want a CP/basin wide or w/e, you def want your bursts narrowly focused with some trade wind resistance like we had in the '99-'22 era. There was arguably a bit of that left in the '23/'24 event but we've had no issues killing off the trades, even well away from the equator. This is *much closer* to the '72-'98 environment in that respect. I can't be the only one who remembers how tough it was to kill off the trades even in the '15/'16 event. It languished for a while in the summer because of it and we had two false starts ('12 and '14) before that one took off. We are miles away from that.”

Maybe some interest with this tool from the NC Climate Office. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/station-reviewer/ Used Mt Mitchell State Park as an example. https://products.climate.ncsu.edu/weather/station-reviewer/?station=MITC&period=YTD

If we're having an el nino that's supposedly going off the charts, then I don't expect the PDO to repeat the pattern of the last 2 years. If a record-breaking el nino can't flip the PDO, then it's time to start getting concerned that the -PDO is going to be permanent. Quite frankly, if a record-breaking el nino doesn't break the -PDO, I don't know what will.

I wouldn't say busted completely. I was driving up to Mt Airy to attend the Blue Ridge Baptist Camp Meeting where a friend was preaching. The clouds were looking ominous and all heck let loose just past where 52 breaks off to go into the town. I'm 73 and I have never ever had to pull off the highway because I couldn't see...until then. Five feet was the furthest that I could see in front of me. I was expecting to run into a car or get hit from behind. I found a side road to exit off onto to wait out the storm. When I got back onto the highway there was debris scattered everywhere, with up to 4 inch branches down. I'm a storm spotter and I'd definitely classify that as a severe storm.

Crickets in here. Models don't look super interesting for today. Hrrr develops a line of storm over DC and moves east. It looks pretty strong down near oc. It has the line coming through the lowlands around 9pm. I love a nice evening storm. Hopefully everyone gets a good soaking. NAM is congrats PA line and north.

Goose eggs here from those storms yesterday. Watering my garden & lawn, so it will pour tonight. Overnight low of 72.

The spring WWB data was just released. This event is interesting in that the WWBs were displaced a little further north and west off the equator than 2015 and 1997. Those events were focused right on the equator. 2023 was driven by the unusual WWB closer to South America. Also note the weaker zonal flow east of Japan with the strong ridging there driving the -PDO. Even though the WWB average was weaker than 2015 and 1997, the upper ocean warming has been faster especially near Nino 3.4. https://psl.noaa.gov/data/atmoswrit/map/