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Comparing Oct 1st with Oct 29th, neither 3.4 nor 1+2 have changed much: But Nino 3 has had a steady rise: Nino 4 ended up ~same but that’s because after a 1st half drop it had a sharp rise last 5 days:

I’ve got a hunch we’re going to see a super dry month or two. Even with the expected heavy PAC influence. Probably won’t beat 2002-2003’s all time driest winter period locally but we certainly could flirt with an all time driest month. I’ve got my money on a super dry JAN

The persistent GOA low and Hudson Bay ridge is basically -TNH. Basically the inverse of 2013-2014.

How similar is this to October 2024 Chris and does this set off alarm bells for you that a drier outcome is possible? This is why I bring up 2001-02 as a non nino analog. October 2001 was also similar to this. Ray I was more referring to how NOAA broadbrushes their long range outlooks based on ENSO they very typically use 1997-1998 as their main analog for every strong el nino event. The reason I am going drier is because it hasn't rained here in 4 weeks this is very similar to October 2024 in that respect. Although selfishly if it isn't going to snow this is the perfect weather, warm and sunny It's non nino like Chris this actually reminds me of October 2024 in terms of both widespread warmth and dryness. I love it lol. ENSO is responsible for only 30% of the outcome. It reminds me of Doctor No coming out right after the GFS lol. I think they are just saying that weather and climate are two separate things. Also John I love how you write But I digress at the tail end of a long post lol. This is the same reason I get incensed with the sabr people who turned baseball into a boring comatose sport. Having the Brewers and the Rays in the Wotld Series was a nice global FU and middle finger to those fools. Yes this is also why I savor late season snowstorms especially in April. You know it's going to be the last one for a long time. Also they aren't a pain to clean up. The January HECS was bigger here, I was on Long Island for last winter where the February event was bigger but both were HECS. How did you do in the January event? That was a big one over here. Didn't we have a hugger track with the January KU event? Bias and agenda aren't the same thing. There was also an HECS in January that was bigger out this way. But it changed to ice right at the peak of the storm otherwise NYC and the local airports would have all had two 20 inch snowstorms and 50 plus inches for the season. That first storm was an 93-94 kind of storm. A global disaster? Most people love hot and dry summers. I welcome a 1966, 1983 and 2010 repeat. Yes I distinctly remember you said there were 3 different future outcomes. Nowhere did you say a KU event could not happen without a big volcanic eruption. I also grew up in the 80s and while they were much colder in the winter anyway we also got less snow. The only HECS we got in the 80s during the winter was during a super El nino. The other one was in April the previous year. While I love the warmer falls what I really hate is the longer pollen season. My allergies are much worse than what we had back then. And I feel like our May weather has gotten colder and wetter. My ideal spring weather happened in 1991 that spring was much warmer than any we've had this decade. For summer I'd take a combination of 1991 and 1993 we dont see summers as hot as that anymore. For Fall I'd take 1983 for the same reason. Either way it's no snow so warmer and sunnier would be far preferable.

Probably another few days until peak color here. Some trees at peak/ past(Maples) while some oak varieties aren't quite there yet. Very pretty now, and the leaves are coming down. Leaf blowing/mulching season is here and will go until early Dec. Fun.

I wonder what would happen if my aunt had balls.

1877-1878.... There's that year coming up again. I'm not sure how accurate reanalysis is, but let's say it's reasonable. I had dug into it a little bit. That is actually an exceptionally intriguing year, especially in light of the early season progression we're seeing now. Look at the month by month from that year. Different timing, much earlier this year. However, watch how it evolves for November and December vs what we've already seen so far. Nov 1877- Big cyclonic anomaly near Iceland to start off. We've already done that this year, and they had a record storm in Iceland out of it. Also some blocking, near the Urals. Dec-1877- Big cyclonic anomaly amplified that Ural blocking. Eerily similar to the way we achieved the monster Ural block this year. I'd put my money on there having been a disturbance in the stratosphere that year too. Something like what we've been keeping track of happening now. It's almost like it's all connected to the el nino, stratosphere included One mainstay feature of that entire season, was a big ridge near Hudson Bay in Canada. Ensembles sure are advertising plenty of that to come currently. Is this the playbook we're following? I don't know, but that early sequence has some striking similarities to ours. Check out the stubborn ridging east of Japan that year as well... My expectations for the winter are in the basement. They have been all along. I couldn't possibly bury them any deeper than where they started. There is only one thing that I personally expect we will achieve this season, a record Pacific Jet. I am, however, also willing to remain open minded for surprises at the same time. This event is interesting as hell to me though, regardless of whatever winter does. Here's that whole season, November -> March 1877-1878:

Saw a lightning bolt today and Vegas had some downpours.

Dont know,the PDO shouldnt look like that this in a NINO its still pumping warm currents along the Kuroshio current and it is nothing but warming along Eastern Japn, which seems to be just as well how strong this NINO is,along the Kuroshio extension is where the strongest currents are in the world and should be getting mixed out with the colder Northern Pac oceans but arent,There is no way the Sea of Japan should be this warm

Sure is. Grafton.

Weatherbell has their winter forecast out. Slightly above normal snow for DC. We're in the +1F DFN for temp though it seems to be front weighted.

I'm about 80 miles due South of Chicago. I would have thought by now I would have seen a frost. I know the Shenandoah Valley has already had multiple mornings in the 20s but they always have that. Hell, it snowed 10-18 inches there on October 10, 1979. The summers have definitely lengthened over the last 20 years. I would probably have to move to Michigan or Wisconsin to get more of the climate that I would enjoy.

Is that looking at Wahchusett?

It's like a giant claw coming to get us

We've had an amazing stretch of weather for late October! Crystal clear skies an cool temperatures have brought amazing colors across the Smokies. We been busy around the house painting decks and removing shutters that have bothered us since buying the house. Enjoy the weekend Mountain folks!

72 was today’s high 70s most all next week too. Torched.

Actually got cold at the end of the day .Shouldn't have worn shorts. Holy wind gusts. Leaf rule in full effect.

I’m fairly certain I’ll make it to Tgiving

They went until 11/18 in 2016. That’s just wild for up there…even if it’s a heat island.

Looks like a fluke though, as the 18Z brings it back as an event that could last into early Saturday. The 12z Euro also stays on the rain with a Thursday/Friday event. It is pretty gusty outside now with the stiff wind out of the north. Definitely doing a number on the foliage...not much fell this well but a ton fell today with the wind finally picking up.

Some vibrant maples popping along with all the others. Really enjoying being outside and taking it all in before brown season