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June 15 1989: Scattered frost develops across Minnesota, with the coldest reading of 29 at Isabella. For Monday, June 15, 2026 1662 - A fast was held at Salem MA with prayers for rain, and the Lord gave a speedy answer. (David Ludlum) 1879 - McKinney ND received 7.7 inches of rain in 24 hours, a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1896 - The temperature at Fort Mojave, CA, soared to 127 degrees, the hottest reading of record for June for the U.S. The low that day was 97 degrees. Morning lows of 100 degrees were reported on the 12th, 14th and 16th of the month. (The Weather Channel) (Note: BRUTAL!) 1953 - Dust devils are usually rather benign weather phenomena, however, two boys were injured by one near Prescott AZ. One of the boys suffered a black eye, and the other boy had two vertebrae fractured by wind-blown debris. (The Weather Channel) 1957 - East Saint Louis was deluged with 16.54 inches of rain in 24 hours, a record for the state of Illinois. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced severe weather in the northwestern U.S. A tornado damaged five homes and destroyed a barn near Salmon ID. It lifted a metal shed 100 feet into the air, and deposited it 100 yards away. Hail an inch and a half in diameter caused ten million dollars damage to automobiles at Nampa ID. (The National Weather Channel) (Storm Data) 1988 - Severe thunderstorms in the Central High Plains Region spawned five tornadoes around Denver, CO, in just one hour. A strong (F-3) tornado in southern Denver injured seven persons and caused ten million dollars damage. Twenty-six cities in the eastern U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. The high of 97 degrees at Portland ME was a record for June. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather over the Southern and Middle Atlantic Coast States. The thunderstorms spawned eight tornadoes, including strong (F-3) tornadoes which injured three persons at Mountville PA and four persons at Columbia, PA. There were 111 reports of large hail and damaging winds, including wind gusts to 80 mph at Norfolk, VA, and Hogback Mountain, SC. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) Observances: 15 Mon National Take Your Cat to Work Day 15 Mon World Elder Abuse Awareness Day 15 Mon Nature Photography Day 15 Mon Clean Your Vents Day 15 Mon National Prune Day 15 Mon Sneak A Kiss Day 15 Mon YMA Day 15 Mon Global Wind Day

Also not that it matters a ton (also it's being sunset soon) - the SREF maps over on the SPC page are already showing a mean Derecho Composite of 3 for part of Thursday afternoon/evening.

I might be the Stein epicenter here. Local PWS stations are like .10-.15 MTD after last night's screw job. Everything is getting torched.

Digging this windows open weather.

Upper 30's/40's across the area this morning. Was a nice day yesterday with highs in the 70's, but breezy NW winds. Low dews. 70's today with scattered shwrs/stms, then back to cooler wx with more rain possible Wed.

I *will* say that the NCAR AI maps are VERY robust for Thursday - but they do tend to look at lot more serious than CSU and CIPS in general. So take with a grain of salt.

This is what LWX had in their AFD this morning re Thursday Beginning Thursday, a strong surface low will push east past the Great Lakes with a stemming cold front that will push across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. This cold front could result in multiple showers and thunderstorms throughout the region, with some becoming severe. There is already a 30%-45% severe probability noted in NCAR`s AI model, and a 15%-30% severe probability noted in CSU`s ML model. Timing and exact hazards are still the primary uncertainties being 5 days out, but early markers are definitely showing an early widespread severe risk with this system.

06z RRFS suggests that this may be more of a Thursday event for us, blowing up a cell right over the metro by midday. will be interesting to see what the 12z suite thinks, but I could see the d4 risk being shifted back west some

Extra log on the fire this week at BDL

2.10" last night. We got trained on from 10:30 - 12:30. Lots of wind damage around the township too. Several trees down.

Truth! Severe weather around here is a perfect example of what tiny factors can change about an event...no two events are the same even with seemingly nearly identical parameters. Snow gets all the glory of forecast busts - but I really think severe weather busts are MUCH more finicky.

Ensembles really want to hang onto this W pac forcing too. Competing Nina influence for the foreseeable future.

Maybe lack of rain too . Not washing it away

I'm kind of in the same boat as you. Still, we've seen what marginal surface instability and good dynamics can do in these parts.

Lucked into a couple of good storms last night and ended up with .96” for the night and 1.88” for the month.

I realize there's a drought meme popularity right now. It is vying for second place to this other sweeping grand Disclosure stuff, where is apparently going to cause a global 'ontological shock' risking civility meltdown. Yeeeah. We'll see about thaaat. If there's a meltdown it's prooobably not coming from ... whatever that means. But in the meantime, in so far as around here? - absolutely 0 physical manifestation of any problem with water deficit. We go through this every year. Yes, promoted by the U.S. Drought Monitoring, then set forth by their primary sales agent, Kevin's emceeing the desiccation destruction of the world... We read this same sentence every year, though: "We go through this every year" Yet, y'all just can't wait to pack the reception hall again. I guess we're an easy audience - I don't just mean us in this social media. I mean human condition of 2026 and the last 50 or so years of this ongoing socio-technological evolutionary experiment. We've become stimulation junkies for it. But when you look out the window at any moment, that still quiescence, that is what is happening. Everything else is human fabrication. Human actions. Human interactions. Yet this latter has become reality as though reality is unstoppable. 100% of everything that the world presently faces, at macro to individual scales of potential harm or crisis, is 100% human caused. Including, Climate Change. Ironically, a consequence that is largely construed as the lie. Despite being utterly empirically undeniable. This is the dangerous paradox of our times. There's this "right" to flout objective truth. It might even be a defense mechanism. If one cannot believe any of it due to the loss of public faith, they'll turn to what gives them comfort. Basic psychobabble. In either case, we've somehow we've arrived to a time in history where the freedom and entitlement to believe whatever one wants, givens them a right to deny objective reality. It's bad too... you point out 1+2=2 to commoners at this point, they nod and return to whatever piece of shitness they are. Penetration truth into anyone's complete nonsense has become almost insurmountable. So they carry on.. litigating in favor of what they want over objective reality, and while not accepting the latter, that is the real harm. This is an elegant self-impost extinction event - one that is probably caused by our own innovation. Well... maybe a some are coming around... But I tell you what, in my aggressive opinion ( LOL ), it is still largely and unanimously denied. Until the ballast of humanity stops doing what it that is causing the problem, to persist means there's too little acceptance. Kind of analogous to an alcoholic bargaining. Bargaining in the context of alcoholism refers to the mental process where individuals admit to a problem with limited intent ... a time in which they continue to engage in addictive behavior. This form of rationalization is a fallacy of control, which is really a psychosis for minimizing its impact. This can lead to a cycle of relapse and worsening symptoms, including psychosis, which can manifest as hallucinations or delusions during heavy drinking or withdrawal. Sound familiar? Like Disclosure I saw the movie yesterday. As science fiction art it was fantastic.

You hate to waste a summer month with those temperatures.

Whopping. 05" last night. The ground almost got wet! Wet, I tell you!

Even despite the factors this potential even has going for it - I'm kind of "meh" on it for now. Not necessarily truly meh - but I'm just not feeling it so far. Will see how things look once it gets closer in time. I suspect we won't really have any SOLID clarity until 11am the morning of lol.

Nice. We had some decent wind but nothing too crazy. We did pick up much need rain 1"+ - it has been dry here since Memorial Day weekend.

Actually looked at the forecast, and my high temps are still above normal this week. I know inland has "higher" expectations with AHATT

Great, now there is a whole lot of media hype about the "cold blob" of water south of Greenland. Isn't that this the manifestation of the AMO heading towards the negative phase?

Looking at the precip map, the Philly region south of Lansdale down to Wilmington DE did exceptionally well. The southern Poconos also did very well too. The Lehigh Valley and the far northern bucks and Montgomery counties did poorly.