All Activity

Lol...I remember 1 other time but there may be more.

Happily take a concrete bomb at this point (and that’s what I think we’re getting). .

The thing is that for as bad as the GFS was a day or two ago being the last to join the party, it isn't a COMPLETELY trash model and can be looked at without distain closer to an event. That said watch it slam a low into Cleveland for the 18z or show suppression to Naples.

It hangs back some of the southwestern energy juuuust enough to sort of elongate things though -- dragging snow through basically most of Monday. It's on its own in that regard for the current-most run of the overall suite, but if that starts showing similarly elsewhere then a bit colder, longer solution would seem more likely. Given its performance thus far, I wouldn't necessarily hold my breath on that front; seems to be lagging behind the pack.

Verbatim on the GFS I think you would see a major band well up to the Mass Pike. Imagine if we were to pop at 700 low...damn

You look right. Cold air locked in more so far

this is going to be big! trending towards 12 to 18 plus for many I think.

Canadian looks similar to last run. Amped and thermals are a mess.

how much is it showing before we change over to sleet here in richmond? Thank you

I know you're referring to the lead post, i was just going back looking at this storm and i remember that insanely long title for the thread and thought it was funny.

CMC slightly less amped through 93

Oh I’d troll him badly via text haha

Well, this is not how I wanted things to go. Sucks you can't depend on the models outside 3 days. Even the king Euro went from a foot of snow to freezing rain in less than a day.

Yes. GFS is another notch in the right direction. Mixing issues staying far away on that run. Definitely not negatively tilted, but the energy is more out in front of the trough sweeping in behind it. Thats a good spot to be I think

Didn't see this posted. A bump up from 07Z. Their snowfall seems much higher than any model (at least at 10:1, so their "model ratio looks to be 15:1 for the 95 corridor at least, comparing snow to QPF), which is unusual. I don't care if some of this near the end is really sleet - this would be amazing.

The thermal boundary quickly collapses back south as the coastal takes over on the GFS. That run was pretty close to perfect for 95 NW in terms of track and speed.

The trolling shtick got old a decade ago....

How long?

GFS is a great run, longer duration too as you leave a bit of energy trailing. You get the southern energy to ride up along the baroclinic zone with PVA pointed across the region, and then the central Plains trough swings through. 24-30 hour event for many. A widespread 12-20" from DC to Boston hasn't happened in quite some time.

It's difficult but I am going to refrain from taking this GFS run this seriously right now. If the Euro still holds or doesn't amplify quite as much as its 6Z, then it's cause to relax a bit. The GFS has been a mess so far.

I made a tiny little thread for the tiny little threat for this evening, so as not to clutter up this main thread. It's gonna get wild in this main one!

Could be timing but the CMC appears to coming in a little south of 0z.

Yep, this is what we want to continue to trend toward. Maybe throw in a stall off OCMD for fun.

Solid long duration 8-12